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ActuallyATleilaxuGhola

Axolotl Tank Class of '24

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joined 2022 September 08 09:59:22 UTC

				

User ID: 1012

ActuallyATleilaxuGhola

Axolotl Tank Class of '24

1 follower   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 08 09:59:22 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 1012

My impression of historical US-Euro relations is that while realpolitik was always an important component, there was a sense of shared ideology (liberal democracy) and cultural history that strengthened the bond relative to, say, US-Egyptian or US-Indonesian relations. We were the "free countries," we were the "Western nations," and until recently, we were "Christian nations." However, mass immigration, multiculturalism and its consequent curtailing of civil liberties, and militant secularism and progressivism seem to have severely weakened those identies in Europe and made room new identities to assert themselves.

I see US-Euro relations decaying to the more transactional relations that the U.S. has with culturally alien countries. European countries making noises about cozying up to China sounds bizarre when operating under the assumption that the old identities hold, but it actually makes sense if Europeans now simply view China and America as two ideologically-alien superpowers who offer different sets of incentives and obligations and who can be played off one another for benefit.

I think a lot of the outrage about "European ingratitude" from the American right is caused by right wingers failing to realize that European 2025 is not the Europe of 1950, or even 1990. Many Europeans seem to already view America as ideologically alien and thus view the relationship as totally transactional. It would be like expressing gratitude to your ISP for providing internet service after you sign a contract and pay your bill. Trump's more transactional approach aligns with this new reality, and so it's probably a good thing -- unless you're an American progressive, in which case, since you hold religious beliefs in common with European progressives, you probably view this development as needless division and infighting amongst enlightened nations that diverts time and energy away from pushing back the ever-encroaching forces of ignorance and oppression. That said, I sense a rift between American and European progressives as well, mostly in complaints from more traditional European socialists who see American "woke" progressivism as an irrelevant distraction from material problems and/or a form of American political and cultural imperialism. So perhaps even the bonds between progressives on either sides of the Atlantic are fraying and will not be strong enough to maintain a US-Euro relationship beyond the merely transactional.

This explanation is certainly too pat, and there's more nuance to be explored, but do you think this is more or less the direction in which things are heading?

Homeowners of The Motte -- what would you differently if you could do it all over again?

I plan on building a house in the next 12 months on a lot about an hour away from the Gulf of Mexico America. It's going to be a two-story 5BR house with porches on the front and the back, built in a traditional Southern style.

I'm a bit overwhelmed as I don't even know what I don't know about building, and I want to avoid making costly mistakes that I'll have to pay to renovate later (or worse, be unable to fix at all). Happy to hear both from people who built and people who bought.

This doesn't seem to be the case in China. Even today, there are people who can trace direct male lineage to Confucius who lived around 500 BC.

I saw one of these guys in Qufu when I was a student. He was writing and selling calligraphic scrolls on the side of the road. He had a sign with his portrait on it and some official-looking, diploma-like certificate stapled to his sign. "Wow, is he really an actual descendent of Confucius?" I asked my professor, who was born and raised not far away. "Probably, I don't know. There are a lot of them." she replied. She seemed completely unimpressed. And that was when I began to wonder if I was a bit naïve.

Westerners often credulously believe claims like this because (1) Chinese have a radically different view of "lying" that Westerners don't have natural defenses against unless they've lived in China or a similar third world country, (2) Chinese (individuals too, not just the government) find it in their interest to promote stories that prove China's equality or superiority to the West, (3) all the sources that would debunk nonsense claims like this are written in Chinese and this unable to diffuse into the Western consciousness.

"China" does not have 5,000 years of history any more than "France" has 3,000 years of history.
Chinese did not invent soccer, or sashimi, or beer, or the seismograph.
Chinese cannot trace descent from antiquity with a level of confidence that would be taken seriously in the West.
"Truth" in China is not the same as "Truth" in the West.

I looked up the scandal on Wikipedia. He allegedly had sex with a 17 year old (who he claims he thought was 19)? That's what's made him radioactive? Is there anything else I'm missing? The wiki section for this says "UNDERAGE SEX TRAFFICKING" so I was expecting he was ordering 9-year Ukrainian war orphans to his house or something, but this really underwhelming. Technically a crime, yes, blah blah blah, but reminds me of the pearl clutching over Lewinsky.

Academic Agent always comes across to me as a meta-grifter whose grift is to claim that everyone else on the right is dumb and/or grifting (see also that skinwalker Hanania). A grifter for hobbits with a slightly higher IQ. Okay, cool story bro. Don't worry, I'll remember to like and subscribe to your Substack so that I can read your exclusive paywalled articles about how everyone else is a money grubbing shill. On what grounds does this guy expect me to take him more seriously than the rest of the online political commentators?

Also @TheOneWhoFarts, do you have an opinion about this article? Your post is just a summary.

Hey, The Motte. Recommend us some books that are fun to read and that aren't about the destination, but the journey. Books that delight the reader with clever turns of phrase, witty jokes or badass scenes every few pages.

Any good homeschooling resources that TheMotte would recommend?

I want to start homeschooling my two elementary school aged kids from this year (one is early elementary, the other late elementary). What are some good resources for learning at home? I'm interested in online tools (Khan Academy, stuff like that) but also premade programs and curricula, mail order/correspondence programs, anything like that. Also, any resources on being an effective homeschool teacher without formal training in education.

I want to teach the usual basics skills, but I'd also like to teach formal logic, Latin, computer skills/coding, and handwriting.

I think there was also a recent thread about homeschooling experiences on here... I'll have to dig that up as well.

I quit drinking cold turkey 4 days ago.

I feel mild anhedonia, experiences I normally enjoy are muted or feel like they're happening to someone else and I'm only watching, if that makes sense. I have too much energy during the day and it's hard to relax fully in the evening. My appetite has dropped a lot, but I still want to eat because I've increased my lifting recently. It's kind of the way you feel hungry when you have a cold. You feel your body's need for sustenance, but no foods are particularly appealing. My libido has dropped considerably, though that may also be due to the extra fatigue from increased lifting. In the evening, light is too bright and noises are too loud, kind of like when you have a bad hangover. My baseline stress level feels higher; on a scale of 1-10, I was previously around a 3 or 4 most days, and now I feel like I'm stuck at 6 all the time. Sometimes I suddenly feel exhausted during the day and want to rest, but I'm too wired to actually relax before bedtime, sort of like when you've had too much caffeine to sleep.

On the bright side, my feels like it's working at 200% speed. While I was doing well at work before, now I'm absolutely crushing it. I don't have heartburn or any other gastric trouble anymore, I don't have much appetite for junk food, and I find temptations to my various vices almost trivially easy to resist. Getting up in the morning is getting a lot easier. I have the focus and the patience to listen to chat with my kids in the evening after dinner. I can handle more chores. I can take care of my wife better. I can control my temper much more easily. I spend probably 1 hour less per day lying on the couch. I picked up a physical dead tree book and started reading it for the first time in many months. I'm not thirsty all the time, and my body doesn't hurt as much when I wake up in the morning. My heart rate gets back down to the low 50s when I sleep at night. My sleep quality is much better. And maybe best of all, I don't feel the sense of guilt and self-loathing I've learned to live with every night when I go to bed and every morning when I wake up. That's probably what keeps me going each day more than anything, I don't feel like I suck anymore.

I was (am? well, hopefully was) a 5-8 drinks a night kind of guy which, while clearly not good, doesn't really seem like "real alcoholism" when you google alcoholism and read stories from people downing a fifth or two of vodka and blacking out every night. But that amount was apparently enough to slowly change my mind and body over months in ways I hadn't even realized, and I'm dealing with the aftermath now. It's very... sobering.

I wrote this as a personal reflection and thought I'd share it in case any other folks are on the same path.

I want to stay up and F5 Twitter/4chan for hot election shitposts but I have to go to work tomorrow. D:

While there certainly is fear porn, I think there really is more risk in some ways for modern women simply because being a deadbeat dad carries way less stigma than it used to, and everyone is highly mobile.

You can get married and have a kid with a guy who seems great. Then 5 years into the marriage he gets bored and cheats, there's some mild tut-tutting but in current year there is no shared, deeply-rooted community that you both belong to, and neither of you are particularly religious, so he has no reputation to preserve and suffers little to no personal, professional, or moral consequence. And what few consequences he does suffer simply evaporate when he moves two states away to live with his new wife and family. This is in fact exactly what happened to aunt of mine who was an all around decent middle class person. Her husband simply got bored and left, and that was it.

it's a real thing

Yeah, real in that people make the claim. As @hydroacetylene pointed out, tons of people also claim descent from Muhammad. This lineage also has a wiki page, does that prove that it's "real?"

Everything you listed except Celery is how I got into tech and make six figures now, lol. I don't know how computers work** since I don't have a CS degree and don't do tech stuff for fun (anymore), but I agree that a lot of people use the tools you listed terribly (especially Terraform and k8s, wtf). But I'm curious what your objections are to the tools you listed. How would you do things differently? Usually when I run into someone who pooh-poohs those tools, they're the sort of person who wants to write their own epic genius 1337 codegolf in-house tool that has zero documentation, is full of idiosyncracies, and will become someone else's pain in the ass when they leave the company in a year. And then it's a part of the workflow that I have to use/work with/work around/slowly start making plans to sneakily deprecate. I dunno, I'm in my mid 30s. Maybe in a few years I'll start to get crusty too.

**by this I mean I have only basic knowledge about DSA, time/space complexity, Linux internals, etc. compared to turbo nerds who spend every weekend contributing to OSS for fun

ETA: One thing that I think is lost on a lot of engineers is the value of legibility. Terraform might suck, but you can explain what it does to some dumb non-technical stakeholder or some mid/low-quality engineer. It has tons of docs, and there are lots of slick videos explaining it on YouTube. HCL sucks, and it reinvents a lot of basic programming concepts but worse (for_each), but it's pretty easy to get started with.

There's also the "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" factor. As a manager, part of my job is pushing for new/better tooling. If it's something mainstream and there are case studies or tons of threads about it or some Gartner bullshit or whatever, I can budget approved easier. What I pick is almost certainly not the optimal tool/software, but I have to get shit done and I can't let perfect be the enemy of good.

This also comes into play with public cloud (touched on by @ArjinFerman). I've never worked anywhere that has fully optimized cloud spending, there's always tons of waste. But after the corporate card is attached to the AWS account, I can provision servers/containers/clusters when I need to, and I only get yelled at about billing once a year as long as nothing ever gets out of hand. Is it wasteful, inefficient, and dumb? Yes, but that's just a reflection of the wasteful, inefficient, and dumb nature of the vast majority of human organizations. It's not a technical problem.

tl;dr a lot of the devops/infra people know these tools are dumb/inefficient but the alternatives are endless red tape or deadlock.

And two: his unhinged Twitter takes

I guess I'm finally no longer able to see both of the"two movies on one screen." That doesn't seem unhinged to me at all. Slighty provocative (only slightly because "nazi" has been abused so much that it stings about as much as "commie") but to me fairly obviously true. Jew-hunting was likely transitory and once the exigencies of war vanished would very likely have disappeared*, while the near complete destruction of the family and basic relations the sexes is something that it's not clear a society can ever come from. So Jesse's outraged pearl clutching to me reads as "it's okay for a a country's native culture to be completely corrupted as long as no Jews die." I'm no white nationalist or jew hater, but come on.

*I guess this can be argued, but I just can't see a sustained long term appetite for murder of Jews after the war. I'd guess they'd reach some sort of emancipation agreement with the governments of the German puppet states and probably would have been encouraged to move to Israel. Not very nice I guess, but that still seems less terrible than the complete degradation of a nation and its identity to me. I wonder if Jesse would have preferred Israel to adopt strong Laicité and import tons of Arabs rather than fight to keep its national character by hook or by crook

I remember reading the Warcraft 2 game manual multiple times as a middle schooler. It was dark, gory, and realistic. There were heroes, but they weren't larger than life and sometimes they got died. It read like a chronicle of Aztecs invading England, it was badass. I especially enjoyed how each Orcish clan was essentially a separate tribe with it's own rituals and cultures, lovingly detailed. Shout-out to my homies from the Bonechewer and Laughing Skull. The human kingdoms also had interesting histories, I loved the stories of Lordaeron and Alterac. Even the heroes were cool. Aleria, Turalyon, and Uther were badass.

Warcraft 3 pushed all of this into the background to focus on goofy Arthas. The gameplay was good, but the SOVL was gone.

(Controversial take -- I feel very similarly about Final Fantasy VI and VII.)

I dunno, man. I might have agreed 5-10 years ago but I've been sliding inexorably toward Nybblerhood with all the recent blackpills. Western men are mostly domesticated and will not use organized physical or often even political force to fight back against systematic anti-white discrimination, schools transing kids, blatant mass illegal immigration, mass rape of young girls by foreigners, heavy-handed lockdowns, and more. How could conscription cause they state to lose "all legitimacy" when the aforementioned crimes against the people barely dented it? If conscription happens, white men will get sent to die along with a few token foreigners, people will whine on social media, and the few who try to do actually organize to do anything about it will get crushed instantly by the surveillance state panopticon.

ETA: Elsewhere, you said you think a real war would shock that system. I could only see this happening if troops actually landed on the island of Great Britain and real desperation set in. Feeding young men to a far away meat grinder is not going to be enough to break information control.

As a pretty average American compared to most of this forum, I'd be okay with you or anyone else living here only if you did most of the following: got married (ideally to an American), had kids, learned to hunt or fish, started going to church or at least showed up and participated in public events hosted by churches, took an interest in local politics, and participated in traditional civil religion ceremonies (e.g. 4th of July cookout), got and kept a stable job, and generally deferred to the local culture, social conventions, and moral code (e.g. no loud ethnic music or fireworks at weird times, no opening abortion or gender transition clinics, no complaining about halal/no vegetarian food).

If you don't want to do those things, I honestly don't really want you in my country at all, no offense personally. If you must come, I hope you stay in the rootless cosmopolitan containment zones (blue cities).

I think this is how many (most?) non urbanite Americans actually feel but as @WhiningCoil points out, even the reddest red state hobbits have been successfully trained by state education to crimestop when thinking these thoughts, so they make mouth noises about "illegal immigration."

Also, just curious, but since you are transhumanist (IIRC) atheist, isn't the social and political climate of the UK much more amenable to your beliefs and political goals? America has a large population of recalcitrant believers in the imago dei, including not a few members of the elite, who completely oppose transhumanism.

if you are going to home school you'll need to dig out chances for your kid(s) to socialize adequately

Yes, this is key. We're hoping to have them out of the house doing something with other kids their age at least 3-4 times per week, plus playdates, playing in the park, etc. One of the two is very outgoing, so we're already thinking about how we're going to handle this and looking for homeschooling groups and activities that are not tied to schools. We very much want to avoid the "house arrest" model of homeschooling.

Cool post, thanks for writing it. Should I read Shogun? It's been recommended to me a thousand times for obvious reasons, but I'm a jerk about historical accuracy and I'm worried it's going to be full of anachronistic nonsense or magical oriental Mr. Miyagi characters. Maybe I'm approaching the book too seriously and should suspend disbelief?

For 2025, I want to read some self-help books, strange as that may sound, to get some of the books that are always being recommended.

FWIW, I'm reading King Warrior Magician Lover by Moore & Gillette, and it gets recommended fairly often in some manosphere corners. I'm only about halfway through and I'm not sure I'm totally sold on (what appears to me to be) all the Jungian psychobabble, but it's kind of interesting and different, and I could see how the framework might be useful for men. That might be one to check out.

Tim Ferriss gets recommended a lot. I read the Four Hour Work Week back in college, but it didn't leave a huge impression on me. All I remember is that he became a "kickboxing world champion" in some weight class by somehow exploiting a loophole in the rules and... that proved some point about hustling, or something. But a lot of people seem to like his stuff.

Because if my salary is 90k before I learn AWS, it will be 91k after I learn AWS and get my annual 1% raise. But $COMPETITOR is looking for AWS skill and is paying 105k. I'd probably stay at your company and take 100k, but I'm sure that asking a raise will either get me laughed at, or I will be successful but will get marked as "greedy"/"not a team player"/. So instead of dealing with the drama and politics, I'll just jump ship. Why did you make me do this? I would have been happy to continue working at your company if you had only been willing to recognize my increased value as an employee.


FWIW, I'm a manager and I deal with this issue all the time. I actually push to pay ambitious engineers more and do my best to make their work lives rewarding. It's a lot more expensive (in money and time) to replace a skilled employee than to simply give an existing employee a 10% raise. But alas, not everyone realizes this.

Just bottled this year's first batch of homemade sake. I got a bigger umeshu jar this year so I was able to make about 5L of the stuff. Left a good amount of the rice particulate in so it has that nigorizake taste, though much less sweet. We have a lot of sake lees from this batch, so I'm thinking of marinating some pork and probably some cucumbers and carrots. Any other ideas? (Paging @George_E_Hale -- but keep it on the down low!)

I've also got several batches of umeshu in the work, though they won't be done until next summer. But I do have one experimental batch that will be ready next month -- "Christmas umeshu" with a cinnamon, cloves, vanilla, and nutmeg. I expect it will be overpowering and terrible by itself, but maybe okay in a mug of hot water. Looking forward to cracking it open in a few weeks.

Any amateur brewers, distillers, or infusers on The Motte?

We have a lot of tech workers here. What's your read on the current and future tech job market, specifically for SWEs? Now that the ZIRP money faucets have turned off, will there be permanently reduced demand for SWEs? What impact will AI have? What have you seen at your own company in terms of layoffs and hiring patterns?

There is no shortage of activist judges, so I have to imagine that there are powerful people holding back most of the farcical and nakedly partisan potential Trump prosecutions and who are only strategically letting some through in controlled, well-timed escalations. Otherwise I'm sure he'd already have a dozen prison sentences in random jurisdictions.

I think Greer might be overfitting "TikTok users to "Zoomers." My tech illiterate lifelong Republican MAGA mother regularly sends me boomer-humor tier TikTok clips and she is obsessed with "based Black MAGA conservatives" spouting GOP talking points or praising Trump (sidenote: it is truly bizarre how civil rites fetishism is so prominent in the generation regardless of political leanings). I get similar stuff from my aunts and uncles. I think @Stefferi is right when he calls this as "normies vs fringe," although instead of fringe I'd say "nerds."

Disclaimer: I don't hate cyclists and have not had many negative experiences with cyclists while driving.

I always find it difficult to find sympaths for cyclists in America. My thinking goes like this.

  1. America is built for cars. Homes and jobs are far apart. Friends and employers expect you to travel distance only reasonably covered with a car.
  2. Thus, cars are a necessary part of life for most Americans. You need a car to get a job to feed your kids. You must buy and drive a car even if you don't really want to.
  3. Biking to work or to the grocery is not feasible for most people for many reasons. Your employer won't think it's cute that you show up sweaty, or drenched in rain, or 30 minutes late due to snow. Your wife won't be amused when you have to bike 30 minutes to Walmart every day to fill your backpack with food for the kids. How do you get to the hospital when someone is sick or injured? How do you take your family anywhere, especially when the kids are small?
  4. Thus, cycling is best thought of as either an elective hobby for those with money and time to burn, or a last resort for truly destitute and/or criminal. The former can afford a car if they want, they just choose not to. The latter have bigger problems than just not having reliable transportation and prioritizing bikes over cars won't fix those.
  5. Thus, I really don't care about cyclists' complaints. I mentally put cyclists in the same bucket as skateboarders, rollerbladers, and Segway riders. If you can do your hobby on public roads safely and without endangering yourself or or car drivers, then fine. If there's any inconvenience or risk to drivers, the just ban everything except cars and call it a day.

tl;dr I need to get to work on time or pick up food for dinner, I'm not interested in being delayed or inconvenienced to accommodate some bum or some stranger's vanity hobby.


An argument I'm somewhat sympathetic to is that if we don't accommodate cyclists, we'll be stuck in our current automobile-centric hellscape forever. That is probably true. However, my preferences go like this:

  1. Cities designed for bikes & public transit, cars rarely needed
  2. Cities designed for cars
  3. Cities designed for cars where cycling is awkwardly retrofitted into existing car infra with significant gaps where there are no provisions for bikes at all

In the U.S., number 3 seems by far the most common, and it sucks for everyone. The car/bike war is one of those problems that IMO can only really be solved by a strong executive power not beholden NIMBYs and lobbyists. Until one materializes, I'm supporting option 2 all the way.

Not a rhetorical question -- do many Australians know who Tucker is? And do many Australians care what he thinks? I thought he was only relevant in American politics.