Isomorphic_reasoning
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User ID: 961
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I don't have a conclusion here, but all the "exercise doesn't help that much" takes run counter to everything I experienced.
I think people say this because to the average sedentary person. "Exercising" means jogging for 20 min, 3 times a week. And it's true that just doing that doesn't burn a whole lot of extra calories. An actual long distance runner who's doing 100 miles a week can of course eat a lot and stay slim
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Well yes, the base rate is important but you don't just look at the base rate and then stop your analysis. what /u/gillitrut is saying is that in order to properly judge this case we need to look at the actual facts on the ground too.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
There are laws against taking certain types of anti union action. It varies by state but these laws give unions a lot more power than they would have in a true free market.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
The richest Americans (Gates, Musk) are 10^11 dollars per year.
Not consistently. Maybe in a year where their stock surges but 10^11 per year for a decade would be a trillion total which is far higher than either of them. Averaged over a career they're an order of magnitude lower
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Probably, but I'm not the all, and I don't care about the sums of all. I'm one person, and I care about myself. I will benefit from a reduction in the supply of labor.
Why are you so certain you'll benefit from a reduction in the supply of labor? You are both a producer and a consumer of labor (even if you don't employ people directly you do it indirectly all the time) so the effect on you personally could go either way. The specifics depend on your line of work and your consumption habits as well as the lines of work of the migrants. I don't know what you do for work but if you're anything like the typical motte poster you won't be facing a lot of direct competition from uneducated migrants so if you're solely interested in your own economic situation as you claim the consumption effect could easily dominate.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
This is a good thing. It means that I, as a consumer of labor in the USA, can get the same product at a cheaper price.
Protectionism in trade, which is what your argument amounts to, tends to benefit the few at the expense of the many and are negative sum over all. If skilled mechanics come to the USA from Central and South America mechanics in the USA will be econimically worse off but everyone who needs their car fixed will be economically better off
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
The term "Sanctuary city" doesn't seem to imply "we accept a proportional share of migrants but get upset if we have to deal with more than that" (1) Instead it seems to imply "we welcome all migrants". If what they really mean is (1) then their proclamations of being a sanctuary city are empty virtue signalling and they deserve to be exposed by stunts like this.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Coconut oil in particular is mostly saturated fat
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Twin studies show that it is primarily not genetic which the "born this way" crowd hates to hear
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Ageism is bad
If this is true it should cut both ways. Why can a 34 year old not president but an 84 year old can?
I wouldn't be surprised if switching to 1-mile time as the sole criterion of admission would select more strongly for IQ than the current system
This is definitely not true. It would select strongly for conscientiousness
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
it’s a fact that those who perform well on math & reading tests tend to perform more poorly on the 1-mile run, and vice versa.
I think this is false.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
It took me a second to realize you weren't talking about black lives mattee
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
"a trump" meaning counting his kids
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
They're literally in the middle of a war. Are a few people on a plane really tipping the scales that much?
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
That girl whose date-me-doc or coffee-meets-bagel profile talks about how she is looking for a serious relationship is definitely, DEFINITELY fucking randos on the side.
the definitely here makes this statement false. Many women have hook ups on the side while claiming to only want a serious relationship but the percent is not 100. Furthermore as guy hooking up with such women it is easy to overestimate the percent as you are quickly filtering out those who don't.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
I know, and my contention is that this is not a narrative they would cling to if they truly truly believed it was 1 for 1 equivalent to murdering your own child. Look at how people respond to women who kill their own children, for example, casey anthony. People, women in particular, hated her. No one was making excuses for her. The fact that women who get abortions don't receive this same level of hate is indicative that it is seen as lesser than murder.
Why is it hard to believe that pro-lifers really, honestly think that abortion is murder?
The fact that a lot of pro-lifers are reluctant to call for criminal penalties for the woman getting the abortion and instead place all liability on the doctor does make me think they don't really think it's equivalent to murder. That's certainly not how we would handle a woman who hired a doctor to euthanize her 3 month old baby. We would charge them both.
I do think they actually believe it's immoral and I don't expect the eugenic style arguments to convince any but the most confused pro lifers (ie people who are only defending the pro life side because it's the republican position who never really personally thought it through) but i think only a minority are consistent in their belief that it's 'murder'
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Fixing housing affordability issues seems is a hard problem. Fixing housing affordability has never been done by any country (as far as I know).
Making housing perfectly affordable might be a hard problem but making it significantly more affordable than current day california is an easy problem. Just remove the artificial restrictions to building new housing and the market will do the rest.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
and 18 times the overbilling amount is just absurd.
1.8 billion is actually 180 times 10 million
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Given what we know about crime clustering, I wouldn’t be surprised if revictimization rates dropped the figure closer to 1%.
You think the average rape victim is raped 8 times in their life? That seems way too high.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
This isn't the same. In this case red voters want a sizeable minority to vote blue. Unless you're especially bloodthirsty that isn't the case in the original scenario
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Deaths occur IF AND ONLY IF blue is picked by someone
This statement is false. The only if part is true but not the if part since its possible for blue to be picked and there to be no deaths.
Blue is a necessary AND sufficient condition for deaths
Again false. Blue is a necessary condition but not a sufficient condition for deaths as there are situations where blue is picked but there are no deaths
Red is neither necessary nor sufficient,
False one more time. Red is a necessary condition for deaths as if there are no reds there will be no deaths.
If you're going to use precise logical terminology in your post make sure to get it right otherwise you're just embarrassing yourself.
Isomorphic_reasoning
1yr ago
Given that some people will choose blue, and you know nothing else about how people will decide, the EV of blue is higher.
This is wrong. See the comment chain between me and /u/roystgnr for the actual math. The EV depends upon both the expected proportion of people who will pick blue and the variance of that estimate but there are definitely situations where you expect there to be a nonzero number of people picking blue and the EV of red is higher even in the altruistic case where you value your own life no higher than that of a random person
I disagree. I recently bought a Mercedes E class from the late 00's for $4500. It runs great and didn't need any work. Oil changes are a little more expensive than they were in my camry and it takes premium gas but overall i wouldn't consider it expensive to maintain. I don't know if it's exactly what teenagers would consider "cool" these days but it's certainly cooler than my old camry. It's a luxury brand, and it rides very smooth.
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