No_one
Underemployed Slav. Likes playing Factorio.
User ID: 1042
diminishing rate of progress in frontier models
Is there? GPT 4 was kind of a toy. The reasoner models are already vastly smarter than an average white. If they assemble them into agents, average or even mildly above average white guy or gal has no hope of having a secure job. Sure, it might take $50k in compute infra cost to replace one worker initially, but even Polacks in their native habitat are paid $12k a year and cost employer another $10k in taxes.
:____________________________
boo outgroup
English: Czech
Pole = Polák
Poles = Poláci
..plural of Poles is ..derogatory in English ?
No_one
2mo ago
all else equal, the guy who’s entrenched has an advantage Both are entrenched. The war is mostly hammering enemy till he gives up with remote weapons, then taking over the position.
Actually, I suspect the First Gulf War would provide a lot of insight into the Ukraine invasion, but I’d need to do a more careful reading.
No? Incomparable.
Seeing what happened after NATO crossed the reddest fo red lines and pulled off a blatantly US coup in Ukraine, what with the US department of state people on the scene, Russians do seem to care about some red lines.
Suppose US somehow converted cca 1000 tomahawks into land-launch configuration, a feat theoretically possible in months if SpaceX or similar company were involved.
Suppose they were trucked to Ukraine, it'd only be like ~200 big trucks, and launched in mass through Belarus against carefully chosen targets which would mean Russians would, even at best ,shoot down only a fraction as intercepting them all would require having an uninterrupted chain of SHORAD along Russian western border, which they don't have.
I doubt Russia has enough fighters and enough AWACS planes to shoot them down. Suppose 100 important targets - bunkers, strategic infrastructure, ammo dumps - were hit in a morning.
Maybe Putin is cuck enough to take that, knowing America doesn't have the depth of arsenal to repeat that. Or maybe next massive cruise missile attack against Ukraine would just keep on going west and start hitting over-the border logistics hubs seeing as it's really hard to argue all that American hardware driven just across the border and fired off wasn't really Ukrainian.
No_one
8mo ago
Then in the classic Imperial Boomerang effect they take the tools field tested on the poor bastards in Palestine and eagerly apply them in cracking down on future dissenters in the UK, US, etc.
..that's really not a plausible take. The situation is incomparable, in addition, Palestinians are really, really not any smart.
wielded against some posters on this forum.
Why? If Trump wins, which seems likely, you get a smooth on-ramp for the China liberation war. Who is against that? Nobody likes China, save maybe a few expat Chinese. At least on Twitter, SV types are signalling pretty hard that they're up for the war on China.
No_one
1mo ago
(Also, I really don't expect to see decent neuralink tech by 2030. It's just too damn hard.)
AI researchers and if US becomes progressive about getting value out of the dregs of society, there's like 50,000 heavily tattooed but basically healthy people fit for human testing down at CECOT.
No_one
2mo ago
I probably would not take either side of this bet.
Few modern Iranian missiles were intercepted in the last attack. Almost none. And these aren't as flat flying or as evasive as Iskander. Jamming satellites might work perhaps but it has inertial guidance so who knows how well..
No they have not.
That's your supposition, yank. Ask yourself what is a carrier group going to do when 128 maneuvering hypersonic glide vehicles appear over it.
Ask yourself how the carrier group is going to fare when it has what, 200 anti missiles. Even with perfect interception rates that's only 100 intercepted inbound missiles. Chinese LOVE large number production and they dug 1000kms of tunnels in mountains north of beijing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_Great_Wall_of_China
They can shoot a lot of missiles out from China.
an anti-ship version to withstand the stress and heat of high-speed travel.
The earlier version solved this elegantly, the missiles just delivered guided bombs with a speed of 1000 m/s high up, maybe terminal 800 m/s. You can have seekers then no problem.
It'd still probably work because 100 of these would be very tough to intercept and even 5-10 hits would seriously degrade operations from a carrier. Ships are hard to sink but the internal operations aren't very redundant for reasons of space.
I'm not sure how the later version solve this, the HGV ones.
No.
They're not utter retards, so I highly doubt they wanted US to invade Iran either because that would go very badly.
Iran is a much larger country than Iraq, it has rugged terrain, ties with Russia and China and a somewhat more technologically capable population that is fiercely nationalistic.
US might have been able to topple mullahs with a color revolution, might get lucky and Iranians do it themeselves but an inevitably brutal invasion would have resulted in people rallying to the flag and something that'd make the worst of Iraq look like a cakewalk.
No_one
3mo ago
Canada and Europe aren't his allies. These places are ruled by his enemies.
No_one
4mo ago
It's been almost 80 years. Time for the occupation armies to go home.
You lot want to fight China for world domination.
Every single army soldier in Europe needs to be retrained for air and naval duties and sent to the Pacific if you want to have more than a snowball's chance in hell.
No_one
2mo ago
The US has the same (perhaps better) apparatus to kill Chinese missile launchers that China does to kill carriers, do
- Ok I'm going to reply in depth later but you shuold familiarize yourself with how well the 'Scud hunt' went during Gulf war
- the estimates for breaking through into an static, decades prepare air-defense grid (it's weeks in case of Russia)
- the multiple methods for detecting stealth planes (multilateration, undoubtedly networked parabolic microphones and more!
Also that China does have satellite dazzlers ready. In short US wouldn't be likely to acquire these launchers, wouldn't have much to hit them with - cruise missiles aren't great at following moving targets and also planes wouldn't be able to get near.
No_one
3mo ago
It was likely intentional. Remember that Trump is a showman.
Also Waltz wasn't disciplined nor is he likely to be.
No_one
3mo ago
Surely the US doesn't need any more wars in the Middle East?
Israel was against the Iraq war FWIW. So there. They understood what was going to happen and it came to pass.
No_one
4mo ago
But you'd agree that blacks and Hispanics hate whites more than they hate each other, no?
No_one
7mo ago
The link is self-explanatory.
A pretty impressive guy who has been mentioned here and who got cancelled for saying his mind is apparently tasked with recruiting people to reform key institutions.
What more should one post?
I guess you could just cram it into the CW thread, but
a) it's not even really worth debating.
b) it's fairly important information. Wouldn't everyone here want better Us institutions ?
No_one
8mo ago
You think small police departments around the US are going to get much value out of fucking MRAPs.
Bullshit.
You think Gaza experience will help American police oppress Americans - ignoring that Americans are far more heavily armed and have far, far less police officers than say, Europeans.
What are we even talking about?
No_one
10mo ago
And? Everyone has people killed.
Pretty sure Americans have killed people with weird poisons too. Why do you think CIA had a 'heart attack' gun showed off during the Church Committee hearings?
I'm not disputing that Russia kills people in weird ways that include poison - I'm disputing that it makes sense in this concrete sense. Because it doesn't.
The other notorious case of Litvinenko - the guy was seen as a traitor, but one who run away and wasn't swapped. And who instead of being quiet in his exile or at least low profile published very incendiary and probably nonsensical information of the type "Putin is a pedophile" / Russia trained Al-Qaeda etc.
We're not dealing with a hypercompetent foreign ministry here.
They presented Putin with a choice:
-
watch Ukraine smash the separatists, greatly angering Russian opposition thus making Russian internal politics worse and humiliating Russia by painting it as inactive and weak. Ukraine
-
go to war and force Ukraine to see sense.
No_one
11mo ago
I don't think they'd bother tbh.
Canada has always been a 'fake' country of sorts, and after 1945 it has existed purely on US sufferance, as a place where Americans can do shady shit like illegal experiments on people and US courts have no jurisdiction.
They'd simply fix the Chinese influence problem and return things to how they were before.
No_one
11mo ago
There are no sources that specify, but even the mainstream apologists admit this team was never bigger than 60 to 80 people, which is less than 10% of your supposition. Jewish "witness" Richard Glazar said there were 25 people on this team.
You're assuming several things here.
-
whoever who did the research didn't fuck it up.
-
I'm going to believe you, a person who believes millions of Jews would have just 'left' eastern Europe and moved to ..Stalin's Russia, in the middle of a war, using some unprecedented system of cross-frontline movements, are just not making shit up, wholesale.
The aerial photographs that Mattogno mentions were taken by the Luftwaffe in May 1944, after the supposed cremation operations were over and the aerial photographs prove that there was no major tree felling in the vicinity of the camp.
You're showing a picture of a very tiny portion of the area.
https://en.mapy.cz/turisticka?q=treblinka&source=osm&id=40487565&ds=2&x=21.9935714&y=52.5758397&z=13
There is something like two dozen square kilometers of woods nearby. If you had trucks, you could easily get the equivalent of 2.7 square kilometers of clear-cut forest without even clearcutting anything. Furthermore, there's a railway line.
No contemporary reports or documentary evidence of this massive tree-felling and cremation operation whatsoever.
Funnily enough, the local railway was administered by an agent of the AK... who kept careful notes of the transports, AK forwarded them to London, and being the local boss, even apparently stole a part of the records to prove the cattle wagons that arrived full of Jews were returning empty.
No contemporary reports
Do you even speak Polish ?
'Tianamen square massacre' was like the 'October revolution (which took place in november)'. It didn't take place on Tianamen square, but mostly elsewhere. And it was precipitated by some faction of protesters burning alive a whole bunch of soldiers in buses (party admits to a dozen), outside of the square. (see end for an excerpt from a book by a westerner involved).
They managed this because soldiers in the square - who have been there for weeks- who were only armed with truncheons, and overall live ammunition and weapons was not something commonly had by soldiers keeping watch on the protesters.
According to anti-US sources, the protest movement was taken over by CIA types, the violent attack was done by a small unknown group. Gene Sharp, the guy who invented color revolutions was involved too.
Hard to say what really happened, except apparently, at the same time there was a more violent workers' uprising outside of the square, a violent attack on riot control troops that resulted in a dozen dead with consequent reaction all these events got conflated and made into the 'Chinese massacred hundreds to thousands of unarmed protesters at Tianamen square'.
What we actually are hoping for is bloodshed, the moment when the government is ready to brazenly butcher the people. Only when the Square is awash with blood will the people of China open their eyes.
(one of the protest leaders)
It's a good playbook. Either you humiliate the government and exploit its unwillingness to stand up to protesters to get what you want, or it gets violent and then you can paint them as monsters even though the 'death toll' is less than the needless deaths in one progressive western city in a year..
Whatever happened, as someone who for obvious reasons appreciates diversity in political governance structures, I applaud CPC for not getting snookered like so many others. The mysterious 'Swiss Propaganda Research' has a write-up on it.. I say 'mysterious' because they're accused of not being anonymous Swiss journalist(s) but a front for Russians or Chinese.
Excerpt from 'Tianamen Moon' by a not-CPC sympathizing guy.
The May Fourth spirit was gone, replaced by something murky and malevolent. There was a new element I hadn’t noticed much of before, young punks decidedly less than studentlike in appearance. In the place of headbands and signed shirts with university pins they wore cheap, ill-fitting polyester clothes and loose windbreakers. Under our lights, their eyes gleaming with mischief, they brazenly revealed hidden Molotov cocktails. The unsung heroes who had kept the peace for over a month could retroactively be appreciated by their disconcerting absence; at best, student types were in scant evidence this night. Instead there were warriors with agendas unknown pressing in on us. No overt hostility was directed at the crew per se, but the anger and seething lust for violence was palpable. Our lights, in this dark and troubling hour, seemed to attract all species of insect. “Turn off the lights!” I yelled at Wang Li. “This isn’t working, turn off the lights! We better get out of here!” Who were these punks in shorts and
I watched from twenty to thirty feet away as the students tried to extract from the burning vehicle the driver who had nearly killed them. He had trouble walking. He appeared to be injured and in serious pain, but the quality of crowd mercy was uneven. Eve of Destruction 273 “He’s not a person, he’s a thing, kill him!” voices continued to shout out. Hotheads were deliberately instigating violence, putting them at odds with conscientious demonstrators who had no intention of hurting anyone. The assembly surrounding the armored vehicle shared a paroxysm of joy in stopping it, but was of more than one mind about what to do next. At least one surrendering soldier was safely evacuated to a waiting ambulance, but then the ambulance itself was attacked, the back door almost ripped off by protesters determined to punish the man in uniform. Up until now, the volunteer ambulances were symbols of the movement’s caring side, carting collapsed hunger strikers away from Tiananmen to hospitals for physical restoration. Until this night, city ambulances, plying slowly through the pack with that familiar, almost reassuring up-and-down wail, had been sacrosanct and untouchable. A man with a metal pipe smashed the rear of the ambulance, breaking the taillight. Two or three other men pounded on the back door demanding that the limp body of the soldier be handed over. T
No_one
11d ago
Israel isn't a NPT member state.
The actual impetus appears to be the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, but 60% enriched uranium isn't itself a violation of the NPT.
With modern centrifuges that's a few days away from material for efficient uranium bombs.
No_one
22d ago
How are you going to be even able to tell whether something is AI or isn't?
Enough people around here are functionally indistinguishable from LLMs from my point of view. They produce huge reams of mostly waffling text circling at respectable distance off the problem without ever addressing it and it's a chore to read.
Any LLM can do so too, in fact they readily behave exactly like that. With the barest minimum prompting skill all the usuall tells of LLM output disappear.
Counterpoint: maybe a world in which a murderous battle royale for enough arable land ensued would've been preferable, because it'd have removed the less capable races from taking up valuable space. It'd have been a tragedy for anthropologists, but probably a net gain for the species as a whole.
I don't particularly care that I'm alive one way or another and I think this is the right attitude. Human greatness as expressed in technological achievement, energy production and intelligence, in aggregate, is what matters, and I do not see how the entirety of Africa or India is helping anyone or anything.
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