Recursive_Enlightenment
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User ID: 791
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
Would Israel attack Iran if it predicted that Biden would privately oppose but publicly support the attack? From Israel's viewpoint, the attack leading to Iran attacking Saudi Arabia would be a good thing because this would bring US air power into the war.
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
But Trump will blame the war on Biden saying that Biden unfreezing Iran's assets enabled Iran and sent a signal to Iran that we would be OK with them attacking Israel. Trump would point out that during his presidency Iran didn't cause trouble because Trump did things like assassinate Iranian general Soleimani. Trump would claim that Russian invading Ukraine during Biden's but not his presidency is another example of how US perceived weakness causes war.
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
The attacks on Iran will, ideally from Israel's viewpoint, stop Iran from getting an atomic bomb and damage Iran's economy thereby reducing Iran's ability to fund the enemies of Israel.
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
Israel could launch repeated airstrikes on Iran.
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
Biden and Obama have tried to make peace between Iran and the US, which is why the US recently unfroze $6 billion in Iranian funds. It is in the US interest to prevent a large war in the Middle East. It is in Biden's interest to prevent a significant increase in the price of gas that would likely come about because of such a war.
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
For reasons of entertainment, I'm hoping the next elected Senator from California is Meghan Markle. She has identity points, name recognition, and charisma. It would be funny if she ends up with more real power than the British royal family has.
Recursive_Enlightenment
8mo ago
Interesting. I had never heard of them.
Recursive_Enlightenment
8mo ago
But wasn't the fight between Poland and the Soviet Union over within about 2 weeks?
Recursive_Enlightenment
8mo ago
Imagine all the staff people who didn't realize "fought against Stalin in WW II" probably meant was a Nazi (Finns excluded, of course).
Recursive_Enlightenment
8mo ago
From the Wikipedia page on the proposal: "Under the endorsed design principles of the Referendum Working Group, the membership of the Voice would be selected by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities across the country, with an enforced gender balance at the national level"
I'm guessing that "gender balance" is a form of cultural imperialism and not a big part of how Australian aboriginals governed themselves before whites arrived.
Recursive_Enlightenment
8mo ago
Concerning C:
"The same complainant took issue with this statement of Peterson’s: “Well, it’s just poor children and the world has too many people on it anyways.” Rogan had replied, “You’re being facetious.”
In his communications to the college, Peterson referred to this comment. “I respectfully submit that anyone truly listening to that podcast and not merely focusing for a moment on that statement out of context (and who has bothered to familiarize themselves at all with anything else I have ever said before leveling such an accusation) would note instantly that I do not for a second believe and never have that ‘it’s just poor children’ or ‘that the world has too many people on it.’
“The comment was aimed ironically exactly at those who make such claims and I am frankly rather amazed that the ICRC [the college’s Inquiries, Complaints, and Reports Committee] would make such an error in accusing me of propagating those views.”"
Recursive_Enlightenment
8mo ago
Imagine someone was raised in a country where the Holocaust is officially denied, and then goes to college in a country such as Finland or Germany in which denying the Holocaust is a crime. This student is genuinely uncertain if the Holocaust occurred, and starts conversations about the Holocaust with his classmates and presents arguments he was given as a child about why the Holocaust was faked by powerful interests. He is sternly told that it is a criminal offense to bring up such arguments. If he is a good Bayesian, how should this criminality cause him to update? (Of course, I don't think the Holocaust was faked.)
Recursive_Enlightenment
8mo ago
Fantastic content! People who enjoy might also like the Unauthorized History of the Pacific War Podcast. https://youtube.com/@UnauthorizedHistoryPacificWar
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
Related question: Does the military treat its troops better if you have universal conscription or if you force the military to compete in labor markets?
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
Silly religious people don't realize that hell only exists for those who make bad acausal trades with future AI Gods.
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
If Trump loses the primary, he is really going to want a Republican who will pardon him to be the next president, although the pardon can only be for federal crimes.
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
Whether people are rational or read the question correctly is very different from whether they can pick red. I agree that some people would pick blue, but if you are telling me that some people can't pick red, you have changed the game.
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
"Not everyone can" than it is a different game.
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
Yes, like the flaw with Star Trek's Klingons, that if they were as depicted, they would never have developed the technology they needed to establish their empire.
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
If notable respectable figures continue associating with Hanania, it might signify a shift in cancel culture. These figures might argue that Hanania's genuine apology should suffice. Currently, individuals who have made racist remarks are offered little redemption even compared to those convicted of multiple violent crimes. With ever-changing definitions of racism, many important people could benefit from a system that forgives sincere apologies, like Hanania's. Moreover, associating with someone like Hanania, who undeniably made racially charged comments, could shield those who've made milder missteps in the past.
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
See Gwern on Death Note and Anonymity. https://gwern.net/death-note-anonymity
Recursive_Enlightenment
10mo ago
I look forward to a future where everyone wears augmented reality glasses and can make the bench appear to them however they want.
Recursive_Enlightenment
10mo ago
Economies of scale (average costs fall as output increases) means that the US has strong military reasons for insisting that nations which it defends buy US military equipment.
I think you are looking at the issue from the viewpoint of a moral philosopher. From Israel's viewpoint what matters is will the attack mean if it attacks Iran, the US won't punish it?
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