Recursive_Enlightenment
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User ID: 791
Two Tweets from OpenAI's Sam Altman: "eliezer has IMO done more to accelerate AGI than anyone else. certainly he got many of us interested in AGI, helped deepmind get funded at a time when AGI was extremely outside the overton window, was critical in the decision to start openai, etc." "it is possible at some point he will deserve the nobel peace prize for this--I continue to think short timelines and slow takeoff is likely the safest quadrant of the short/long timelines and slow/fast takeoff matrix."
Eliezer Yudkowsky thinks that the rapid development of AGI will likely kill us and he has devoted his life to trying to stop this from happening, and Sam Altman almost certainly knows this. My personal guess is that quantum immortality means regardless of who is right, some branches of the multiverse will survive AGI, and the survivors will have enough computational power to know what percentage of the branches survived, and consequently whether Altman or Yudkowsky were right.
Edit: Eliezer's response Tweet, which I don't understand.
Recursive_Enlightenment
3mo ago
A smarter US would be trying to get them to join the US.
Recursive_Enlightenment
6mo ago
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
Recursive_Enlightenment
6mo ago
A competent US President would intensify the divisions within Canada so the US could get Alberta to become a state.
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
Imagine someone was raised in a country where the Holocaust is officially denied, and then goes to college in a country such as Finland or Germany in which denying the Holocaust is a crime. This student is genuinely uncertain if the Holocaust occurred, and starts conversations about the Holocaust with his classmates and presents arguments he was given as a child about why the Holocaust was faked by powerful interests. He is sternly told that it is a criminal offense to bring up such arguments. If he is a good Bayesian, how should this criminality cause him to update? (Of course, I don't think the Holocaust was faked.)
Recursive_Enlightenment
5mo ago
Might Turkey join the fight against Israel? Former US Colonel Douglas Macgregor thinks they might. Obviously this would be horrible for Israel, the US, and NATO. Does anyone understand what is happening in Turkey well enough to know if this is a possibility?
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
Tell her you want to move to a leftist state like Massachusetts or California that has similar laws to Europe. Tell her that America is so big thinking all American states are the same would be like an American thinking there is no real difference between living in Romania or England or an American being fearful of living in Spain because of the policies of the Hungarian government.
Recursive_Enlightenment
6mo ago
I'm up for this. In what video game should we all fight?
Recursive_Enlightenment
5d ago
Iran just gave Israel the option, but not the obligation, to launch a massive attack on Iran without Israel losing the support of the US.
Recursive_Enlightenment
1yr ago
If I keep a lion caged on my property but a freak lightning strike causes the cage to open and results in my lion killing someone, I should go to jail. Owning a lion is an ultrahazardous activity, and to reduce the social risk we should make lion owners strictly liable for all the harm their lion causes even if, given that the person had a lion, he behaved with proper caution. Aiming a gun at a person and pulling the trigger is also an ultrahazardous activity.
Recursive_Enlightenment
1yr ago
Ukraine has to be the number one suspect. Ukraine is at war with Russia and blowing up infrastructure is what you do in war.
Recursive_Enlightenment
1yr ago
But I wonder if Mormons benefit in job markets from being considered trustworthy? Better to have people privately discriminating in favor of you than giving you public support.
Recursive_Enlightenment
5mo ago
In a sane world the baby would be cryopreserved until the singularity.
Recursive_Enlightenment
5mo ago
If Israel gave notice and said "Everyone out of northern Gaza because we are going to destroy it in two days" and Biden didn't object I think Israel would be fine. Because of scope insensitivity people are about as bothered by 100 birds being killed as by 100,000 of them dying. I think something similar is true with how the world feels about Palestinians. (As I expect AI to soon be able to uncover all of our identities matching what we write here to text under our own names, please note I'm not claiming that any of this is a good thing.)
Recursive_Enlightenment
6mo ago
Imagine all the staff people who didn't realize "fought against Stalin in WW II" probably meant was a Nazi (Finns excluded, of course).
Recursive_Enlightenment
1yr ago
The key difference between big city housing and traffic is that you are worse off the more other drivers are on the road (the externalities are just negative) while the reason you want to live in a big city is because of the net benefits (net positive externalities) of living near the other people.
Recursive_Enlightenment
1yr ago
Does the EU have an American-like deep state bureaucracy that is going to push for its own identity-politics left-of-center thing regardless of who is elected or appointed to what office? If so, is this bureaucracy in sync with much of the elite media so that going against it gets you labeled as basically evil and stupid?
Recursive_Enlightenment
1yr ago
For US national security and AGI arms race reasons, I hope the US military plan is that if China is about to conquer Taiwan, we first destroy all Taiwanese computer chip factories.
Recursive_Enlightenment
1yr ago
The next US presidential election could be key to what happens to woke. If DeSantis wins, the federal government might interpret existing civil rights laws as mostly outlawing woke because it discriminates against white people and creates a hostile work environment for them. If Harris is the next president, we might view the Biden administration as the "before times".
Recursive_Enlightenment
5mo ago
The AI will have data on how peoples' writing styles change over time, and so will almost certainly be able to figure out your real identity.
Recursive_Enlightenment
6mo ago
To get bigger to better compete with China.
Recursive_Enlightenment
6mo ago
But politically Biden loses a lot more if Israel is weakened than if Russia keeps larges parts of Ukraine.
Recursive_Enlightenment
7mo ago
Related question: Does the military treat its troops better if you have universal conscription or if you force the military to compete in labor markets?
Recursive_Enlightenment
9mo ago
I look forward to a future where everyone wears augmented reality glasses and can make the bench appear to them however they want.
As former President Jimmy Carter enters hospice care, we are likely to soon see a huge number of stories concerning what an honorable person he was. But keep in mind that in 1971 Carter, then Governor of Georgia "proclaimed ‘American Fighting Men's Day" likely in support of First Lieutenant William L. Calley who had recently been convicted for his role in the Mỹ Lai massacre. The massacre involved the rape and murder of Vietnamese men, women, and even children.
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