ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
No bio...
User ID: 626
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
I don't know why you're so skeptical of Starship? They've clearly been making tons of progress on it. Hell, they even launched a failed test.
Why am I supposed to get so excited about a failed test? Give me a fraction of the money Musk got, and I'll do a failed test too. As a bonus, I'll do none of the damage to the infrastructure, and environment that Musk did!
Electric cars? Yep
I'll stick to my Volkswagen, thanks.
Electric trucks? Yeah
Complete garbage that will never operate on anything close to the economy of a normal diesel truck.
Charging network? Yeah
Tons of battery manufacturing? Yeah
What's supposed to be so fancy about either of those, and where does Solar City fit into these?
Orbital Rocket? Yeah
Like I said, it's a decent rocket, but hardly mindblowing.
Reusable Orbital Rocket? Yeah
Reusable Heavy Orbital Rocket? Yeah
Reusability is way overblown, and I haven't seen much evidence it brings all that much (any?) savings.
LEO satellite internet? Yeah.
That's the thing he was crying about in the leaked email that is unprofitable, and why he needs Starship to make money.
Tunnels under every city? No.
Tunnels are an ancient technology, and his aren't any better. Also while we're here, let us meditate on how insane the idea of "hyperloop" is, and how it didn't go anywhere despite all the hype.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
I cannot imagine Christians getting away with anything like this
Yeah, neither can I, but I don't see how that's the fault of Hasids, nor do I see what good is supposed to come out crushing their community. Their culture isn't my cup of tea, and I also have more sympathy for the Amish, but the Hasids are at least Human which is more than I can say for what the regime has in store for us.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1yr ago
It's pretty funny how badly Meghan Murphy got stuck in your had. That debate was months ago, time to move on man.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
I'd be careful picking SpaceX or anything Elon does as a positive example of 'move fast and break things', the whole thing might very well end up like OceanGate.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
and I kind of assume it is bordering on a social contagion.
I suppose sharing your opinion over the internet, and backing it up with arguments is how social contagion works, so I guess you're right on this one.
A fraud in what way?
In the way he presents himself as someone he's not, and promises things he can't deliver.
I have a Tesla model Y. It is by far the best car I’ve ever driven, and I’ve driven many many cars that are substantially more expensive than this one.
That's cool. I never drove one, and I'm not into cars, so I can't judge, but I find it extremely unlikely it's so good that it justifies valuing the company more than all other auto manufacturers combined.
I have a starlink and use it. It works, and when compared to its competitors, absolutely embarrassed them. They aren’t competitors.
How well does it compare to a mid-range fibre-optic connection?
SpaceX is clearly a real company which absolutely revolutionized space launches, and has eviscerated anybody who could reasonably claim to be a competitor. It isn’t even close.
No it hasn't. The Falcon 9 is ok, but not mind blowing. The stuff that would be impressive is still just a promise that hasn't materialized.
As far as self driving: yeah actually my model Y does self drive, and I use it every single day. The “well actually it’s not self driving and it crashes into pedestrians!” YouTube hoaxes are 100% of the time people using autopilot as if it were self driving. It isn’t, and those people shouldn’t be doing that.
Ok, hold up. They're hoaxes, because they're using a product called "Full Self Driving" as if it were capable fully driving he car by itself? You really don't see that as a tiny bit fraudulent?
Also Elon was promising us robotaxis by now. And whatever happened to the Tesla Truck that was supposed to beat rail on costs in a convoy scenario. How doesthe Hyperloop make any goddamn sense at all, and why did he lie about inventing it?
I feel like "Impressive" is a motte-and-bailey. Musk regularly makes entire series of predictions and promises, and people give him an amount of praise I'd consider valid, if he actually managed to fulfill said promises. But since he hasn't we retreat to acting like the things he accomplished are what earned him the amount of praise he's getting. I heard, on several occasions that "rapid reusability" means rockets turned around as fast, and as often as airplanes. When I see that, I'll be writing my apology letter to Daddy Musk.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1yr ago
Is it because so many people have lost faith in both liberalism and liberal Christianity that they no longer care.
Speaking only for myself: yes. I'll take the Taliban over the current batch of western elites.
I'm European.
So... an American vassal?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
We’ve been through this enough times that you’ll have to define humanity.
Can we not do play this postmodernist game?
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What's your definition of X?
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Oh, how about ABCD?
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Oh yeah? What about edge case E? Is it X or is it something else?! You see! X does not exist you fool! Anything could be X!
Or are you genuinely having trouble understanding what a human is, or what fundamental human experiences could be?
Edge cases, and fuzzy boundaries aside, can we agree that by the time we've genetically modified ourselves to be a blob of flesh with hundreds of appendages, neuralinked ourselves into a hivemind, or uploaded our consciousness to the cloud, we are no longer recognizably human?
Why exactly must transhumanism be destroyed?
Because it's an existential threat to the human species? It openly wants us to transcend our very nature? It's right their in the freaking name!
How do you post here so long, and keep trying to come up with these gotchas without your brain presenting you canned responses like "my rules applied consistently > your rules applied consistently > your rules applied inconsistently" that you must have seen a thousand times before?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
notable policy backflips
Yes, who could possibly predict, that protests won't have impact on resuming gas delivery from Russia.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2mo ago
So your only issue with what Trump did is that he didn't pack the court yet?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1yr ago
I totally disagree with the conclusion. First of all, we are literally living in the time where one man's vision is about to revolutionize space travel by making a rocket that can lift 100 tons of payload to LEO.
No we're not. It's not going to happen.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
I can't see how SpaceX is anything but an unqualified success in every single way.
If it's a hype bubble, you're not going to see how it's a failure until it crashes.
As soon as Starship is flying
Yeah... that's a big if. Care to take a guess when we might see it in orbit? I'll be happy to take the "no it won't" side of that prediction.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
I was saying that there's way more hype than substance in them.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
7mo ago
have you seen orbital launch graphs?
Yes, most of them are for themselves. If Starlink doesn't cover their costs, and there's not data to show that either way, this number doesn't mean anything. Though there's a wildcard here, where the whole Starlink thing might turn out to be a front for some Pentagon and/or CIA black-op, which would money is not an issue, but there's no way to tell with publicly available information.
launch cost graphs?
I straight-up don't believe them.
reducing costs with reusable rockets was a joke before spaceX
I think it still is.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
10mo ago
Since I'm not American my only two options are to go with the official numbers or give some credence to other people's subjective reports. At the end of the day this is a purely intellectual exercise for me.
I think you're making a mistake by saying this is political. Haven't surveys been showing pretty handy majorities concerned about inflation?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1yr ago
Speed is hardly the only important factor for an internet connection. HughesNet has latency in the 600-800ms range,
Yeah, I know. My question is, do I really need gaming-rate latencies, when I'm in the middle of literal nowhere? I'm sure there are cases where the answer is a resounding "Yes!". Drone operators probably hate being fragged as much as gamers, and it's only so many times that your CO is going to take "lag" as an excuse. This is why I'm also willing to believe there is a lot more money in it, than a naive analysis of the civillian market would let on, and possibly how SpaceX was sustained for so long.
But for everyone else? Bro, move somewhere close to a cell tower. I don't know how things are in the US, but in Europe you pretty much have to go underground to escape cell coverage.
Either that or live with the lag, and that's the whole question here. How many people absolutely need to low latencies, because if they don't the ISP's that are in geo-synchronous orbit are going to slaughter you on costs. For every one of their satellites, you're going to need... scores? hundreds?
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1yr ago
Which is one of the reasons I think we might see him, and his companies, faceplant soon-ish. There's no way someone in his position doesn't know these aren't the people you're supposed to court if you want to stay on the good side of the establishment. It's either "I gotta found someone to rally around me when the chickens come home to roost" or it (and here I mean everything he's doing with Twitter rather than just signal boosting the right) is a parting FU on his way down.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1yr ago
Everyone who worked with him at early-stage Tesla or SpaceX said he was scary because he understood the technical aspects of your job better than you did.
There is no damn way he had more than a surface level understanding of any of it.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1yr ago
Thing is I think you’ve already lost by your metrics.
Come on, my metrics was Starship making it to orbit, and Tesla not bankrupting / needing a bailout in the future.
Tsla created an entirely new car category
I don't think this is accurate. People have been playing around with electric cars for decades. You might say they're the first "commercially viable" electric cars, but this is exactly what I'm questioning. IMO he generated enough hype to produce these cars, but the investment does not make financial sense.
Starlink
There was a leaked email where he was screaming at his coworkers to get Starhip done or Starlink won't make any real money for the company. Maybe the leak was fake (though never heard of it getting deboonked), or maybe it was just Elon cracking the whip, and they'll be fine even without Starhip, but it's something to consider.
SpaceX itself has shown huge price cuts versus incumbents
Again, as far as accusations of fraud goes, this is where I'd paint the target. I think there's some financial juggling going on that allows him to pretend the launch price is cheaper than it is in reality. If 5 years from now he'll upload a video to X where he's driving a remote-controlled Tesla on the moon to the applause of his investors, I'll eat crow.
No idea if his rockets make it to orbit.
Well, that's lame. Starship is supposed to be the big cost-cutting thing. It's supposed to take us to the moon, and Mars. If it never makes it to orbit, surely that will be a big disappointment?
But his underlying what he actually accomplished dwarfs any “hard tech” accomplishments I’ve seen from any other human in my lifetime.
What tech of his impressed you so much?
Personally, I get some of the Musks hate. I do think he’s committed security regulation violations that would put anyone else in jail.
Counterpoint: The SEC is stark raving mad. But I actually agree, I don't think he's doing anything jailworthy.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2yr ago
Yes, very compelling. Stand back now, please, as we set you adrift. Maybe you can go live with the Danish.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
13d ago
I never seen somoeone get under your skin quite so much.
I understand the frustration, but you don't need the explicit hostility to make your point. Even if your every word was coated in pure sugar, it would be hard not to reach the same conclusion as you did.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
4mo ago
If it's so simple, howcome literally no sense be died that until now?
I really think we should just nuke votes. I think they can serve as a sink for low quality comments ("I agree!", "I disagree!"), but it's better to just hand out tempbans for low quality.
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