sarker
ketman hetman
No bio...
User ID: 636
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
Orbital mechanics permit a degree of certainty that's rare in most other human affairs.
We can pick another metaphor. If you keep OD'ing on fent on Market Street and people keep narcaning you from the brink of oblivion and telling you that you're gonna die if you do this again, but you haven't died yet and you've done this tons of times should you ignore them?
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
First of all, as I've explained many times before (all the way back to the subreddit), fighting off a foreign occupation is an entirely different thing than a domestic insurgency. Guerrilla warfare can sometimes work to accomplish the former, never the latter.
Never? I mean. I can think of some examples: the Cuban revolution, the Chinese revolution, the Nicaraguan revolution, the Rwandan civil war... Frequently guerillas become something more like a regular army as they develop strength but that doesn't take away from the fact that they were able to develop into regular armies starting from guerillas.
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
The laws of physics are much more reliable than economic forecasts or the relation between debt vs. sustainability.
Agreed.
Sitting out of the market in the expectation of a crisis means loss of real wealth as inflation keeps growing at 2-5%/ year, and homes become more unaffordable.
I am long the market, so yes, agreed. But presumably there are ways that the national debt can become a problem without the S&P500 crashing.
Nevertheless, looking at the countries that had a higher debt to GDP ratio than the US right now, it's not a great collection - Japan, post-WWII UK, Sudan, Lebanon, Greece. Maybe it's not the debt that made these places suck, but it seems reasonable to be concerned about where this road leads.
sarker
ketman hetman
1d ago
This can be true , but when people make this prediction every year and nothing happens, it comes off as crying wolf.
If there's a clear indicator that's getting worse all the time but disaster hasn't struck yet, it's hard to see this as the same as crying wolf. You'll recall that in the fable it was, in fact, not clear that there was even was a wolf. We can all agree that debt to GDP is increasing.
Is it crying wolf to be concerned about a small moon on course to collide with the earth? It gets closer every day but nothing has happened yet!
sarker
ketman hetman
2d ago
It’s stilly our highest legislative body is controlled by who can argue the best. Just simplify it and appoint people who will be loyal and pass the laws you want.
Legislators are elected, not appointed.
sarker
ketman hetman
3d ago
I don't have any advice but I fucking hate people like this, having lived next door to a cunt who also liked to idle his car fifteen feet away from my bedroom window for twenty minutes on weekend mornings so that he doesn't damage his precious 2020 camaro. Fortunately I made enough money that I was able to upgrade to a mildly richer and more exclusive neighborhood with fewer antisocial personalities.
I guess that's my advice - make more money and leave. That's the only way to deal with noise ordinance violations in the USA in my experience.
sarker
ketman hetman
5d ago
because the companies running the models gave them answers?
It's not an unreasonable criticism in the abstract, but a few minutes of reading shows that it just doesn't apply in this case.
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The higher score was published by Symbolica AI using Opus 4.6. So it couldn't be that Opus was retrained with the answers.
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"This uses the same harness we previously published" so it couldn't be that they simply prompt the model with the answers.
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The harness is published so you can see for yourself.
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Benchmarks do not publish their entire problem set, so in general it's impossible for labs to simply "give the models the answers" to the problems that aren't published.
This makes the carbon tax revenue positive.
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