sarker
competency crisis actor
Suddenly I cannot remember the color of your eyes
Or the things we said as we stood together for the last time
User ID: 636
sarker
competency crisis actor
7hr ago
it takes time for inflation to work its way through the economy, and prices are sticky.
Difficult to square your worldview with sharp swings in the price of gold. The gold is always the same, so when the value of gold changes it's an indicator of the value of the dollar changing. If it takes time for inflation to "work its way through the economy", why does the price of gold change so rapidly with inflation?
Or perhaps it's the case that not every change in the price of gold is due to inflation?
Interesting. I'm seeing a drop from $4310 to $4135 over the weekend. I guess we had 4% deflation in three days and I didn't even notice!
sarker
competency crisis actor
1d ago
One obvious argument is that self-driving cars are safer than manual cars. Okay, but how much safer? Remember, they have to take on approximately triple of what is currently paid out in insurance and lawsuit settlements for accidents based in the US. Reduce that number by 50%, or 80%, and it's still huge. And it underestimates how safe cars actually are. The 6 million+ reportable accidents a year sounds like a lot. But that's in a country that drives over 3.3 trillion miles annually. It's one accident for more than a half a million miles driven. If you drive 15,000 miles per year every year between ages 18 and 85, you can expect to be involved in two reportable accidents in your lifetime. Any assumptions about the relative safety of Tesla's current offerings versus normal cars is based on a woefully inadequate sample size. I'm sure the thing is impressive, but how many miles have you driven it so far? 10,000? 20,000? I'm guessing fewer than even that, but even if you drove it 50,000 you'd still have to drive it more than 10 times as far before we'd expect even one accident.
You don't have to speculate. You can just look at the numbers. 82% fewer crashes. Hundreds of millions of miles driven. Sure, a few hundred million is a lot less than a trillion, but this isn't untested technology and we have some idea of what kind of safety improvements are possible. Now, keep in mind:
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Not all of the remaining 18% crashes are Waymo's fault.
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Tripling the payout per accident and then reducing the rate of payouts by 82% means total payouts are 50% lower even assuming all those crashes are Waymo's fault.
I am seeing no collapse in rents unless you mean a collapse in the rate of increase of rents.
People have become absolutely untethered from reality on inflation. They'll say stupid shit "like, actually inflation is 10%" and point to eggs, gas, or whatever. Then when the price collapses they just ignore that.
Relatable. Actual conversation:
This specific peanut butter just doubled in price. Are we supposed to believe inflation is less than that?
Inflation is about a basket of goods over a period of tome. Why would you just look at a single price change for a single peanut butter?
crickets
Years pass.
That specific peanut butter just got 20% cheaper. I guess we are now having 20% deflation?
It's still not back to the original price so it doesn't count.
But you looked at a single instantaneous price change and concluded yearly inflation must be way more than 4%. Why can't we look at this single instantaneous price change and conclude that it must actually be way less than 3%?
Well we're still not back to the original price so inflation must still be way higher than 3%.
sarker
competency crisis actor
2d ago
I mercifully did the short quiz only because I just got a blank page at the end.
Waymo wait times are IME very high during peak hours despite the prices they charge being not much different than Uber/Lyft. It's quite clear Waymo has a car shortage.
sarker
competency crisis actor
3d ago
Do you believe that Greek students and non-Greek students differ only in whether or not they undergo stressful experiences?
sarker
competency crisis actor
3d ago
If fraternities selected and promoted suboptimal norms then we should expect to see members perform worse
Than what?
Cool. Would be interesting to try this myself, I suspect I'm the opposite in some ways (I care way more about rhythm and groove than melody, so I think the 90s were actually a great time for music). Did you just dump your playlist into chatgpt?
This "rule" has nothing to do with grammar. The OED has numerous examples of the first person pronoun being first going back hundreds of years. The rule was never about grammar, but always about politeness. From the 1868 Practical Grammar of the English Language:
Courtesy requires the first place to be given to the second person, and last place to the first.
Certain individuals who never saw a rule they didn't like noticed the convention but not the reason and assumed it had a grammatical basis. It didn't.
In any case, I hope that thou always useth "ye" for the plural subject and "thou" for the singular subject, and "you" for the plural object and "thee" for the singular object. After all, those are actual grammar rules of thy native language, right?
sarker
competency crisis actor
4d ago
The result is frankly eerily accurate
Well, what is it?
sarker
competency crisis actor
4d ago
The "rule" is that the first person pronoun always comes last. Of course, nobody follows this and it doesn't matter, and apparently now even self described pedants aren't aware of it.
I think the real question is - why are you shopping for phones irl?
sarker
competency crisis actor
4d ago
sarker
competency crisis actor
5d ago
And what about the short story that's half copied verbatim out of a book?
sarker
competency crisis actor
5d ago
It could be, but then you'd expect to see that in other languages too. And I don't really think you do. Perhaps Arday is the closest example, but he didn't win an award for his writing per se, and AFAIK he only plagiarized certain passages rather than entire works.
sarker
competency crisis actor
6d ago
A recent development of the story may put holes in this defense however, as another X user has discovered that an older award winning novella of Orélien's, Où va le monde, was entirely plagiarized from a 1960s text of Louis Pauwels.
I was bewildered by this. How is it that it could be entirely plagiarized from a work from the 1960s, even if that work is by a writer on the more obscure side? He's notable enough to have an English Wikipedia entry, surely someone should have noticed something in the 14 years since Orelien's novella was published? Well, it's really just the tip of the iceberg:
Several of Orélien's other works were subsequently [after AI allegations] investigated. According to Radio-Canada's Décrypteurs team, about half of his short story "Où va le monde", which was awarded Radio-Canada's Prix du public in 2012, was plagiarized from The Morning of the Magicians, a book written by Louis Pauwels and Jacques Bergier, and published in 1960. The opening lines are identical to that of the 1960 book, but the last two words were removed.[20] According to Le Point, Orélien's opening lines also clumsily copied the original's "débonder une source" as "déborder une source", and elsewhere in the story he copied many sentences verbatim.[21] Radio-Canada also found at least five journalistic pieces by Orélien that were published by Canadian and French media in 2012 and 2013 and which it determined had been partly copied from texts by other writers. Orélien's 2012 opinion piece "Ne mettons pas nos héros sur un piédestal", published in La Presse, was found to have plagiarized a piece published five days earlier in The Philippine Star. This was acknowledged by La Presse, which has now tagged the article saying, "Since the publication of this text, we have learned that its author committed plagiarism." Orélien's 2013 piece "Barack Obama aurait pu être Trayvon Martin il y a trois décennies", published on the blog of France's RFI, included a word-for-word translation from Portuguese to French of at least four paragraphs of "Matin, Obama" by Gilberto Rodrigues, which was published by Pressenza [it] days earlier. His 2013 piece "Le prochain pape devrait être plus jeune", also for RFI, features verbatim almost half of an editorial published in India's The Hindu two days earlier. Additionally, in 2013, his piece "Sommes-nous aussi libres que nous le pensons?", also for RFI, borrowed phrases and paragraphs from "The Problem of Free Will" by Pablo Saborío, published in 2008 on Saborío's personal blog Beyond Language.[20]
I don't even know what to say. Has there ever been a prominent English language author who got away with this much naked plagiarism for this long? Do you guys not have turnitin dot com or something?
So short term price changes in gold don't mean anything, but long term ones do.
Long term changes like 1980-2000 perhaps?
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