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I remember in the late 90s and early 00s, reading many a diatribe about how Microsoft was done. They then went on to grow by 10x and are almost hip again.
I'm not sure what changed all that much. They were just well positioned to tax computer industry growth and it grew massively. Hardly anyone can point to a brilliant innovation at Microsoft during this period.
To me, being a futurist brand guy that's well positioned to capture value in the growth of the transition to EVs, development of space, and AI is a pretty fantastic position. And unlike Microsoft, Elon still has big bets to make.
Speaking of which, have you made any bets?
I don't think Elon's position in EV's or space is as good as Microsoft's was in computers, and for that matter I don't think EV's or space in general are going to be that big of a deal. I don't have an opinion on AI yet, but then again I don't understand why people are acting like OpenAI == Elon Musk. Does he still have a stake in it? Why was he using "give me my compensation package, or I'll leave Tesla to found an AI company" as an argument?
I have 2 outstanding bets with fellow motteposters about Starship ever making it to orbit. If you absolutely insist, you can join in, I think I can take 1 or 2 more, but I'd like to diversify. You think they'll ever make it to the moon? What about robo-taxis?
Diversification seems like a really good idea here, in that it seems to bring the nature of the disagreement into focus. Almost all the replies I'm seeing are related to SpaceX, but Musk has multiple businesses. Is the general consensus that those other businesses are write-offs, and thus SpaceX has all the value? Does anyone actually expect him to crack auto-driving or tunnel boring or robots or making twitter profitable? Is it just the rockets? Maybe the rockets are enough, maybe not, but is any of the rest plausible enough to bet on, or is it essentially fog?
I guess the flipside, though, is what the alternative is supposed to be. Like, let's say I conclude you're probably right, and Musk is probably going to fail. Why is that information useful? Is there an effective way to "short" him? What's the benefit to doing so, beyond bragging rights on the Motte? If he succeeds, I think that's probably a very good thing, and if he fails, I'd agree that's almost certainly a bad thing, but if we knew for sure that he was going to fail, right now, what should we do about it?
Everything Musk does depends on the government being fairly friendly. The government is the big customer for SpaceX and Starlink (note that the FCC cut off some grant funds recently). The government is behind a lot of the push for electric cars and solar energy (both Tesla). The Boring Company would make its money from government if it ever made any. Twitter doesn't depend on the government but he makes no money from it thanks to the Left, Inc. boycott. This kinda leaves him in a tough spot -- he depends on government friendliness but he and the Democrats have a somewhat hostile relationship and they are willing to punish him for it. The Republicans, on the other hand, are less likely to push for electric cars and solar energy, though they're fine for SpaceX.
I feel like solar/batteries, specifically, are exempt from a ‘f you, greenies’ push by republicans because government solar programs are so often about giving middle class people free money.
The majority of Republicans with solar seem to be off grid and not eligible for the absurd subsidies given to California Democrats.
"I have solar and get paid $.5/kwh to use the grid as my battery!" <-probably leftist.
"I installed it myself" <-probably conservative.
"I'm off grid and power my home with a salvaged Tesla battery and some microcomputers I had laying around" <-there are two wolves inside you: they are both far-right libertarian congressman Thomas Massie.
This is probably one reason why IRA subsidies now require home inspections from "energy efficiency experts", other than the usual "jobs for the folx" pork.
Edit: this also applies to heat pumps, on a scale of "brags his $25k install is saving the planet", "installed it himself", and "is a real HVAC tech"
Lots of middle-class suburban homeowners get solar as a home improvement, many of them fairly red. As a minor datapoint, I drive all over DFW frequently and see about as many solar panels on roofs in Tarrant county(light red) as Dallas county(deep blue), and only slightly fewer in Denton county(deep red). Exurbs aren't eligible for solar subsidies, just the tax credit, but I still see plenty of panels in exurbs. It's often a reasonable financial decision to install solar panels, even if they're a retarded basis for a power grid.
That's interesting. The majority of people I know here who did solar before the subsidies were fringe Christian survivalists (great folks, very practical, always good for a 5 gallon bucket of 1999-dated dried beans).
Now it's the Subaru and Prius crowd getting paid to put prayer flags on their roofs.
Think I ruined a "friendship" with one when the power went out at his place during the day, and I laughed at him because his grid-tie solar couldn't even power his own house. I may as well have been Mohammed spitting on his pagan idols.
The subsidies and large tax credits are part of what makes it a reasonable financial decision; the thirty percent credit gets to you immediately and you still have the low payment, for one thing.
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