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Notes -
Something interesting is happening in Mexico. I will preface by saying this is a fact-finding point of analysis at this time but seems interesting. I have not yet made up an opinion on the situation.
Today Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum. Despite being widely expected Mexico etfs and markets took a huge dive. EWW appears to be one of the more popular etfs and was down 11% today. Milei and Trump each had big day 1 sell-offs but if my memory is correct both after winning elections had calm and relatively unchanged equity indexes by the close of U.S. trading.
Sheinbaum is from the same political party that has been running Mexico - AMLO. The big difference is the election was more of a landslide than expected. Super-majorities in Congress that will be able to pass whatever they want. She is even being called by the U.S. msm as a lifelong leftist. Her grandparents when they left Europe were both Jewish and communists.
On the plus side she was mayor of Mexico City and achieved a 10-15% reduction in murder (I usually think murder data is trustworthy). She does appear to be smart and technocratic but very left. I believe I saw her show support for Palestine and there is talk she will be friendly with Venezuela, Cuba, and Russia.
The other interesting thing to me is a Jewish (secular) women feels very odd as a national candidate to me in Mexico. No Spanish or indigenous roots. And Mexico’s Jewish population is extremely small (though as always there are some big hitters). Which feels very odd to me for a society to elect such an outsider (maybe Obama is close?). Also I guess she’s had some birther style attacks.
I talked to a few Mexican friends. One said he hated her and she was a communists, also said she wasn’t Jewish which surprised me as I thought most people considered Jewish an ethnicity. The other seems more open-minded.
Trump being elected could make negotiations between them tense since they are opposites on the political spectrum.
As far as markets go I want to figure out how she will govern. Mexico does seem to have some tailwinds with reshoring so the discount today looks interesting. The counter is the degree of the election victory means she has a mandate so if she does have leftist instincts I think there is a risks Mexico ends up on an Argentina or Venezuela path for a while. If you feel confident you can underwrite her politics will be more of a technocrat with leftist vibes/rhetoric but largely AMLO continuation then it’s an interesting time to pick up Mexico exposure at a discount.
https://x.com/BrazilBrian/status/1797627767808294933
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/03/world/americas/claudia-sheinbaum-jewish-mexico-president.html
Slightly off topic, but it's kind of remarkable that Mexico elected a Jewish president before the US (and it's a younger democracy as well).
Always thought it was wild that Biden is only the 2nd Catholic president.
I did include the weirdness of a Jew in this discussion because I think it’s interesting.
The lack of Catholics in the U.S. is not weird at all. Catholics have to maintain loyalty with Rome on certain matters. That’s a problem in a non majority Catholic country. But makes them very appealing for Supreme Court Justices.
It’s questionable whether Joe is Catholic at this point as he’s not in communion with Rome.
I don't believe Joe has been formally excommunicated by anyone. There was a discussion not too long ago about Biden being told he could not receive communion by a bishop, but that's not a formal excommunication just a pastoral decision. Otherwise any sinner who hadn't gone to the confessional would be "excommunicated."
Perhaps he's done something that merits automatic excommunication, but that would have to be adjudicated. And I don't see how he could, unless you count "officially endorsing abortion" as "being an accomplice to people procuring completed abortions" which I don't see how that would make sense.
There’s no way the Pope would excommunicate arguably the world’s most powerful Catholic (other than or perhaps even including himself) even if he had done something to warrant it.
This is a recent pussification of the Church. The last Head of State to be excommunicated was Tito in 1946 (for ordering the show trial of a Catholic bishop) and the previous one was King Victor Emmanuel II of Italy in 1870 for invading Rome.
The last time "arguably the world's most powerful Catholic" was excommunicated was Napoleon in 1809 (also for invading Italy).
In the Middle Ages royal excommunications were commonplace, but if the criterion of "arguably the world's most powerful Catholic" is used then we have Holy Roman Emperors Otto IV in 1210 (invading Italy again), Frederick II (three times: for promising to go on Crusade and not doing so, for invading Italy, and for obstructing the Pope's attempt to lead Christian Europe's response to the Mongols), and Henry IV and Henry V (multiple times over the Investiture Controversy - in effect for claiming the authority to appoint bishops in the Holy Roman Empire in place of the Pope).
The Papacy couldn't even crush SSPX in 1988.
But they did excommunicate the SSPX leadership after the Econe consecrations - schismatic consecrations are still one of the reliable ways of getting excommunicated - or technically given the law around latae sententiae, of excommunicating yourself in a way the Vatican will wish to publicise.
You will notice that most of the historical exommunications I mentioned didn't succeed in crushing anyone - the practice of unrepentant excommunicants thumbing their nose at the Papacy is as old as the practice of excommunicating people.
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