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The only reason Xi invades Taiwan is if he feels like he’ll be overthrown by CCP hardliners who oppose any accommodation with the West, many of whom have been purged, or by young Chinese very online ultranationalists (or some combination of the above two), unless he does it. Since neither of those groups seem remotely close to achieving power in China it appears very unlikely an invasion will happen soon.
If anything, as @KolmogorovComplicity suggests, the chip situation is a distraction; China is likely more than willing to delay its plans until the US sphere has cutting edge production ready so that Taiwan is no longer so geopolitically critical to American interests. CCP ambitions regarding Taiwan have literally nothing to do with chips at all, they predate the modern Taiwanese semiconductor industry by many years. When TSMC is no longer critical, the US will be much more amenable to a slow program of pressuring Taiwan into integration with China.
Frankly this seems to me to be a fundamental misreading of the situation. China has said repeatedly and loudly that Taiwan coming under their control is practically an existential question. That it is non negotiable. And under Xi this has only grown louder. They can’t change their mind without self-humiliation. They also have a surplus of jobless young men with radicalized ideas and a desire to distract the populace from an economy in trouble - literally the classic case of “civilization goes to war”
I haven’t detected any shift in urgency. There’s a nightly show on CCTV where talking heads prattle about Taiwan, but apparently they have been doing this show for thirty years.
The message is still “Taiwan is a part of China,” same as it ever was. I guess there might be a bit more accusations of American meddling, but that may just be reflecting reality and not designed to escalate.
They also don’t have timelines driven by elections, and have no problem waiting until reintegration is a foregone conclusion.
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I’m not saying that China doesn’t want Taiwan. They do want it and they shall have it. I’m saying that the urgency about “muh chips” is fiction invented by American journalists, Chinese ambitions over Taiwan have nothing to do with semiconductors and everything to do with national identity and myth.
It therefore makes sense for the CCP to wait until the West is no longer committed to defend TSMC (which should be no longer than a decade at the most because of large efforts to scale up production in the US and Europe), especially given advances in Chinese chip production, and then to continue with the long term plan of pressure.
The main reason that the United States and China both want Taiwan is that Taiwan is what allows the US to potentially bottle up the Chinese navy and keep them out of the South China Sea. It’s primarily important as a naval asset. Almost no one talks about this. China has to get Taiwan back if it ever wants to be a great naval power. If China gets Taiwan back as a smoking ruin, without TSMC, without the economy, without the people, it would still be worth it.
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The US has been pro-Taiwan since the CCP took over the mainland. What would happen if the PRC invaded a couple small islands was a phony controversy in the 1960 election. Semiconductors may be cover for the US position now, but if that cover goes away due to alternative sources I doubt the US would change positions; there are strong geopolitical motives for an independent Taiwan. That being said, I don't think China plans to invade any time soon.
I’m not reading it the same way.
First of all, we’ve had decades since Mao to recognize Taiwan’s independence. We haven’t, and in fact more states recognize Palestine than Taiwan. When people make the mistake of calling Taiwan a state China will force them to humiliate themselves and publicly disavow Taiwan as a state in order to sell there — the USA doesn’t interfere at all in this ritual. When Taiwan sends its Olympic delegation to France this year, it will be called Chinese Taipei, not Taiwa. None of this signals strong enough support for Taiwan’s independence to risk American blood or treasure on liberating it.
Second, we’re already bleeding hardware and equipment to Ukraine. This limits our options in other areas at least until we stop doing that. Our military supplies are not infinite and if we’re sending weapons systems to Ukraine to fight Russia, starting another war is not going to be easy.
Third, if the chip factory goes away as an issue (which we’re working on), the public case for war is weak. It’s not a strong ally of any sort, it holds little strategic value other than the chip plants, and the cost to defend it is going to be pretty high. This isn’t Iraq that we’ll conquer in a week while Bagdad Bob goes on TV to say there are no tanks in Iraq. China has a pretty strong military, and decent equipment. It’s probably a multi year war
Don't forget that the US is also going to be bleeding hardware, equipment and troops to Israel and the Middle East in short order as well.
Actually, I think the war would be pretty quick - if China and the USA go to war what actually happens is that the entire world burns in nuclear fire and then we have a really tough winter while the survivors try and put civilization back together.
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How's that going for Palestine?
The US and the West in general doesn't officially recognize Taiwan because getting into a war with China over appearances isn't worth it. But it's just appearances. When China bitched about Pelosi going to Taiwan, Pelosi went to Taiwan anyway. When President-Elect Trump talked to the Taiwanese President, China and the US press went apeshit. Trump said the US didn't necessarily have to uphold the One China policy. China did, as they could, nothing. The US is walking a bit of a tightrope -- on the one hand keeping up appearances enough that China doesn't get too offended and do something stupid, and on the other making sure China knows the US is only keeping up appearances so China doesn't think they have carte blanche to do something stupid. But that's been true for decades and it hasn't changed.
The Seventh Fleet likely has rather different needs than Ukraine.
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Seems like a solid point. If the CCP/Xi feels that they can wait out the situation and eventually take Taiwan with lower casualties (and higher chance of taking the chip fabs intact) then they assuredly will.
So eyes should be out for factors, in addition to those you mention, that might push them to take action sooner rather than later.
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