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How did the candidates do in terms of "it's not what you say, it's what they hear"? That is, we're not talking policy, just politics and feelings for the average undecided voter.
Trump dominated tonight. I think some voters could tell that Biden was more focused on policy, and he was much more specific about some things he did do and will do; I think they also noticed that Trump dodged a few questions, at times repeatedly and blatantly. But overall, it's no question at all. Trump sounded more like someone who cares and understands people than Biden. He was usually short and to the point, especially in the first half. He fell into some old habits, but did so with force and personality. He didn't even need to say anything other than raise an eyebrow as Biden melted down in his response about Medicare where he clearly lost his entire train of thought.
On abortion, Trump responded very vigorously about late-term abortions and clearly talks about exceptions, while Biden defended Roe, which seems tactically like at best a middling choice that pleases almost no one. On immigration, Biden took an "everything was good" tack and Trump talked about terrorism and violence, which is probably the more effective tactic. On veterans, a muddled and personal exchange about the losers and suckers quote, but Trump's logic (independent of whatever the fact is) seems more sound. Israel comes up, but nothing of substance is discussed. Biden talks about how a deal is near-done, while Trump implausibly claims it never would have happened with him at the helm and calls Biden a "weak Palestinian". We have a tussle about retribution and democracy, I don't know if anyone landed any body blows here, much of this info isn't new.
Worth noting that many viewers tune out in the first half hour or so, so this was the entire debate for them.
After the break, we see again the "what they hear" be so important. Trump talks about "clean air and water" while Biden talks about Paris and vague talk of pollution; Trump's framing here is always going to play better. Similarly to before, Trump dodges a question on childcare entirely, and he really hits Biden hard on being afraid to fire people when stuff goes badly. Biden seems to suggest, and does so again several times, that America is the best. Trump says the vibe is actually that things are going wrong and need fixing. Easily Trump wins the feelings side here, Biden framed this badly. Later on, when they start name-calling about the worst president (!!), Trump refers to Biden's bad poll numbers, and later, when they have some absolutely asinine smack talk about golf, (and confusing for non-golfers) Trump says "let's not act like children". Moral high ground, kind of crazy to see.
And the age question! Biden reminds voters, unhelpfully, that he's been in politics a long-ass time. Why would he think this is a good answer? Trump talks about his cognitive tests and says "knock on wood", which is quite frankly a pretty relatable answer. Biden brings up Trump's... weight?
They then accuse each other of starting WW3, which I don't think most undecided voters are going to have an opinion about. Closing arguments, Biden paints a picture of good progress on a handful of issues. This is okay. He improved a bit in the second half. Trump in closing is brutal, mimics Biden and makes fun of him, talks about respect being gone. I don't think he actually wins that many points here because of how personal some of this gets, which voters tend to dislike actually, but overall the impression is still vigorous and strong.
And there we have it. Biden is clearly declining, and Trump is just bringing back the Greatest Hits. Overall, the fundamentals of the race are still pretty similar, but I don't think anyone on the fence will swing left. The only undecided voter action will be pro-Trump, almost guaranteed (as a result of this debate). Focus group testing seems to agree quite strongly.
This was by no means a good debate for Trump, at least in terms of his individual performance. He blatantly refused to answer some questions, and they were the pretty important questions involving stuff like Putin and J6. Others were bad for different reasons, e.g. "will you accept the results of the election" with his response being basically "not if I lose". Worse than any of that though is that his responses were just incoherent. It's like if a lobotomized chatGPT was told to act like Trump, and it spewed a random collection of things that individually sounded like something Trump would say, but without any coherent structure or chain of logic. Trump has always had a meandering speaking style, but compare his performance tonight to the debates in 2016 and there's a world of difference. He's pretty clearly suffered a substantial age-related mental slowdown since then.
Of course, Biden's performance was way, way worse so it'll likely just be forgotten.
This is an excellent debate strategy. You have a limited amount of time to express your ideology and there’s no reason to stay within the fictitious drawn square that CNN places you in. Putin and J6 are not serious questions, I don’t think, but rather attempts to remind the viewer of Trump Bad.
I’m surprised you believe that. I went into the debate thinking Trump would do badly but he came out strong and quick-witted. His reaction time to questions was immediate.
Avoiding questions never looks good. Politicians do it when they know they have no good answer. Usually they can get away with 1 or 2, but it seemed like Trump did it 4-6 times, and he pivoted very awkwardly every time.
Even when he wasn't clumsily dodging questions, Trump's answers were just bad. Again, watch some of his debate performances in 2016 compared to this one, and the evidence is pretty stark.
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Nearly all the "Trump unhealthy" speculation is in bad faith. I immediately discount people who espouse that belief since it's so easily contradicted by my own eyes.
He has lost weight, even if he's still fat. He actually is a good golfer, even if he lies about his scores. And his schedule is just epic. I doubt most people on this forum could keep his schedule.
While he's no genius, he's clearly on the upper end of charisma and energy for adults of any age, let alone someone who is nearing 80.
"Both candidates old" is cope.
When was the last time Trump played a round of golf where his score was verified by someone other than a MAGA ally or a subordinate? His best scores all seem to come at his own golf courses.
You can't estimate the ground truth by adjusting the words of a lying liar.
We'll probably never have the proof you want, but you can find videos of him golfing. He's good. Extremely good for his age.
Lindsey Graham says Trump shot a 74 when they played a few years back. That's an astoundingly good score for someone of any age. Maybe Graham's in on the lying too. Maybe Trump cheated. Even if he cheated by one stroke on every hole that's a 92 which is quite decent.
You can also see videos of him swinging. It's not a pro level swing, but it's very good for his age. He makes solid contact and drives the ball straight and far. Why are people so determined to say he's bad at golf? To me it's one of the clearer signs of TDS. He can be evil, no good, stupid, and still be an excellent golfer.
It reminds me of people who disparage Hitler as a "failed painter" or whatever. I mean I'm not a fan of his, but his artwork seems alright.
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Seriously. Who wouldn't expect the owner of tons of super fancy golf courses to actually be good at golf? TDS indeed.
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It's common for people to talk about Biden being juiced up on nootropics, but I'm curious about the possibility that Trump was on something as well (Adderall/Caffeine/Modafinil?) It would make sense to consult a physician as to how to become as mentally alert as possible for such an important event.
I mean, maybe caffeine, but there's a pretty good chance Trump doesn't know what Adderall or Modafinil even are.
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I would be surprised if he was, he's notoriously "straight edge" due to his brother's struggles with alcoolism, and that's one of the things I can believe is a deeply-held personal conviction of his.
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Isn't it public knowledge that the dude crushes like 8 diet cokes daily?
I don't drink soda, but I've heard that a regular stream of that kind of rocket fuel makes you durably "peppy" but destroys mental focus - which is exactly how Trump has acted since he came down the escalator.
Trump definitely falls into word salad constantly, but I've never believed that it's because of mental decline or impairment. I think it's a habituated verbal pattern developed over years and years of constant hyper-marketing. I've never heard of the business world thinking Donald Trump is a master of financial engineering, or that he really has an eye for underdeveloped or undervalued properties, or that he has the autistic wizard gifts to get permitting done quickly (although I think he kind of did this once on accident in the 1980s. Don't remember details). He, is, however, a marketing natural and his particular marketing style has always been hyperbole, bluster, repetition, and volume.
When he says something like "Everyone said we had the best Presidency of all time," it's exactly the same as him opening the Taj Mahal (that had non-functioning slot machines) and saying "Everyone is saying this is the best Casino they've ever been to." This is just how he talks.
You can see the same ingrained verbal patterns in academics or podcast Bros. Elon definitely has his own eccentricities. None of this excuses Trump from constantly lying but, after round 100 of this, people can't continue to be shocked, SHOCKED!, that he's spewing falsehoods.
That's like 4 8-oz cups of coffee, assuming we're talking 12-oz cans and not 2-liter bottles. It's pretty moderate.
Moderate? I don't think 4 cups of coffee a day is moderate, at least personally. And for a 77 year old?
I might be caffeine sensitive, but it's not a small thing.
4 cups of coffee a day is usually considered moderate. I know of no reason this would be different for the elderly. Note Biden is a coffee drinker.
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