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Notes -
(https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/03/biden-tells-governors-he-got-a-medical-check-up-00166579)
Over a dozen democratic governors have convinced Joe Biden to take a medical test (undoubtedly a cognitive test) to see if he can continue as a candidate. This would seem to me to be a pretty strong signal that they are pretty much pushing the Big Guy overboard. Especially since it’s now public that Joe is seen by his own party as in need of a cognitive test. They would not allow this to be public unless they were pretty sure they wanted him out because, again it’s almost impossible to walk back “your own governors don’t think you can do it,” and the really huge doubts it raises about not only candidate Biden but President Biden. He cannot get away from those questions.
My questions are 1) do you think they’ll wait for the convention, and 2) are we looking at a 25th amendment situation here?
I take the exact opposite message from it: after the debate a strong party would not be taking anything on Biden's word. A strong party wouldn't be waiting for some hail Mary interview or strategy change.
A strong party would simply defenestrate him because it's quite clear what the problem is. It has been clear in polling for months now - the public has made it clear this is a huge issue for them. It's been clear in the reporting since the debate. This is not the "break glass" moment. This is past that.
What is the point of elites if they can't just make the decision?
All of this seems like a weak party moving from the denial to the bargaining stage. Now it's clear they've gone too far and it's just too gosh-darned hard to remove Biden (especially with Kamala on maneuvers, making it clear they're not jumping her) they're listening and hoping something happens, someone else does it, when they should be telling Biden.
Of course, they don't have the time to get to acceptance. So Biden likely runs out the clock.
The problem they have is enough of them have spoken out that Biden seems like a dead man walking. Let’s say Biden hangs on — the Fourth of July almost certainly helps stem the story a bit.
Now what? Now the republicans get to run ads showing many democrats calling the president mentally incompetent.
Trump had been strangely silent. A video just leaked with him talking some shit re Biden. I think Trump is playing 3D chess here. He let the Dems attack Biden and bloody him up. Now Trump is trying to goad Biden into staying in.
Why would Trump want to risk a better candidate? He’s smart to stay out of it for now.
My point is Trump wants to keep Biden in the race. The current trajectory seems to be Biden drops out. Trump needs to goad Biden into staying and he can’t do that while being silent right now. So the strategic thing (even if tactically unwise) is for Trump to induce a muted rally around the Biden effect to end the bleeding. Leave the horse dead but stop beating it basically.
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