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Notes -
An American Cincinnatus, he ain't.
The Democratic party's post-debate woes continue. In the last few days, talking heads seemed to be converging on a new consensus: Kamala Harris is the only way to beat Trump. First of all, she is the only candidate that can be hot-swapped in without having to build a whole new campaign infrastructure. More importantly, the intersectional implications of passing over a woman of color in 2024 are beyond the Democratic party's ability to contemplate. And, finally, Kamala is not polling worse than Biden.
Though the details of her career are cringe-worthy, and insults like "cackle" and "word salad" seem to attach themselves easily, Kamala is still mostly an unknown to the American people. A well-managed media campaign, which limits unscripted appearances, will be able to put her in the best light. It's only 4 months to the election. "I'm With Her 2.0". It just... might... work.
There's one problem: The dinosaur won't die.
At a rally in Wisconsin today, Biden said unequivocably that he won't be stepping aside
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/05/president_biden_theyre_trying_to_push_me_out_of_the_race_im_staying.html
Yes, he did have another senior moment at the end there. But overall it was a forceful demonstration that he isn't going anywhere.
This complicates things considerably. The Democrats have about 4 weeks until state ballot deadlines force them to nominate a candidate. I do think Biden is right. Most Democrats want him gone. They voted for him in the primaries but now he's a liability. But how will they get rid of him? It's not so easy, especially without blackening the reputation of the party. Will the long-buried Biden hair-sniffing stories finally see the light of day? Or will the media come back to Biden's corner now that he's fighting back?
“Et tu, Brute?”
Biden got shivved last night. It was less of an interview and more a desperate attempt by George Stephanopoulos to convince Biden to step down. The narrative is moving from “Biden is senile” to “Biden is desperately clinging to power and is refusing to do what is best for the country.”
The critical moment was when Stephanopolous asked Biden if, “like Trump,” he was just running to pursue his own self-interest.
Biden’s choice is to “die” a hero or live long enough to see himself to become a villain. It seems like Dark Brandon has made his choice. It’s looking he is going to try to run out the clock to the convention. The Dem’s last play at that point would be to invoke the 25th. Or maybe they’ll slip something into his drink. Nobody would be surprised given his age.
In any case, we are living through a throughly dramatic and exciting piece of history. This will be a fun trivia question in 200 years (but not really—the robots won’t play trivia and if they do, the questions will be a lot harder).
Someone else suggested a false-flagging MAGA assassination. I'm prone to despairing that "Nothing ever happens," but if this were carried out convincingly it would be devastating for discourse. And yet I can't predict whether or not it would even lead to a D victory in November.
Two robots can play chess with each other right now, but humans still do it because it's fun and challenging for us. I walk in the park even though jets can outpace me.
If someone with a MAGA hat somehow managed to kill Joe Biden, there would immediately be conspiracy theories that it was a false flag. Probably most Americans would believe him- he's the friggin' president! Anyone well functioning enough to be capable of killing him is well functioning enough to know that the best move for MAGA is to have slow joe at the top of the ticket against Trump! This isn't a small town mayor where a sufficiently dedicated homeless schizo could assassinate him- he's one of the best defended figures on the planet. Tell me, what's more likely- an organized conspiracy by people who regard him as nonthreatening due to senility and incompetence which is capable of penetrating the secret service and yet so clownish as to betray their motivations or an organized conspiracy by people who really want him to stop kicking own goals which they try to pin on the other side?
After Covid you simply cannot convince me that we can assume the most likely explanation for anything will even be mentionable in polite company. I know you like to explain to us how the real blue-collars are talking to each other, but man, the people with nice houses and nice jobs are really, really careful about observing what they're allowed to say.
This is a fair point, but most people do not have nice houses and high status jobs, and voting is a game of, well, the masses.
...And even amongst the people with nice jobs and nice houses there are plenty who live in "Red" areas.
I feel like there's a tendency here to forget that there are tech jobs outside of FAANG and Silicon Valley startups, and that there is serious engineering work being done in states like Tennessee and Texas.
But as you say, voting is a game for the masses, and perhaps this is why the democrats suddenly seem so keen to "protect" democracy from bad outcomes. Ie things the masses might vote for.
Well yeah, that’s definitely not everyone with nice houses and important jobs. Actually nice houses being what they are(much more affordable in red areas), nice house owners probably tilt red. You can be a petroleum engineer and have, fairly openly, whatever opinion you want.
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