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Notes -
An American Cincinnatus, he ain't.
The Democratic party's post-debate woes continue. In the last few days, talking heads seemed to be converging on a new consensus: Kamala Harris is the only way to beat Trump. First of all, she is the only candidate that can be hot-swapped in without having to build a whole new campaign infrastructure. More importantly, the intersectional implications of passing over a woman of color in 2024 are beyond the Democratic party's ability to contemplate. And, finally, Kamala is not polling worse than Biden.
Though the details of her career are cringe-worthy, and insults like "cackle" and "word salad" seem to attach themselves easily, Kamala is still mostly an unknown to the American people. A well-managed media campaign, which limits unscripted appearances, will be able to put her in the best light. It's only 4 months to the election. "I'm With Her 2.0". It just... might... work.
There's one problem: The dinosaur won't die.
At a rally in Wisconsin today, Biden said unequivocably that he won't be stepping aside
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/05/president_biden_theyre_trying_to_push_me_out_of_the_race_im_staying.html
Yes, he did have another senior moment at the end there. But overall it was a forceful demonstration that he isn't going anywhere.
This complicates things considerably. The Democrats have about 4 weeks until state ballot deadlines force them to nominate a candidate. I do think Biden is right. Most Democrats want him gone. They voted for him in the primaries but now he's a liability. But how will they get rid of him? It's not so easy, especially without blackening the reputation of the party. Will the long-buried Biden hair-sniffing stories finally see the light of day? Or will the media come back to Biden's corner now that he's fighting back?
I think democrats have no one to blame but themselves. They absolutely lack party discipline of any sort. They could have told Biden he was done at any point between January and now and they knew that he was slipping mentally, and for whatever reasons they decided not to do it much earlier. So now they’re stuck.
I don't think it's "lack of discipline" so much as the DNC leadership hasn't really adjusted to the new normal. They're acting like they still have the capability to manufacture consent/consensus that they did 10 - 15 years ago, but the thing about burning trust for near tearm gains is that it inevitably screws you in the long term.
Like, @pigeonburger says below, they thought they could Jedi Mind-trick the public into seeing what they wanted them to see only for the public to pull a Watto.
A 2012 DNC wouldn’t have been able to cover up that debate performance, I don’t think. Biden looked like a dead rat for two hours on live TV.
Instead I think they were some combination of 1) lying to themselves(‘Biden’s not a good public speaker’ ‘He’s slowing down but not senile’) 2) thought it wasn’t as obvious(maybe stimulants before the debate? Maybe didn’t think to check him after 4 pm?) 3) didn’t think too hard about it 4) caught between a rock and a hard place and trying to rationalize.
I feel like 2008 - 2010 was the tipping point. The one-two punch of the Iraq War and TARP broke the dam. The coverage of the tea-party and Trump eroded it further, and Covid became the final nail in the coffin.
Edit: to clarify a bit, i dont think Biden did as bad as he has been portrayed in some circles, but after months of the official narrative being that "Joe's sharper than ever, anyone suggesting otherwise is a russian troll" his debate performance might've well been a public execution.
I agree with this and I think you gesture at an important point - a lot of credibility was put on the line and invested in the claim that Biden is doing just fine and any claims of mental health decline are just misinformation, and now that credibility is going up in smoke. Sure, a lot of people will just not care or forget, but some will remember this the next time the party needs them to believe something that doesn't quite seem true.
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