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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 5, 2024

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Are Republicans shamelessly sexually-humiliating their opponents enough to win this election?

I’ve long held the belief that the opposite of slut-shaming is incel-shaming. A woman's reputation is damaged if she sleeps around, but a man's reputation is damaged if he is deemed a weird incel who can’t get laid. Recently, the Democrats launched a “weird incel" attacking strategy against JD Vance. Tim Walz alluded to a fabricated story about JD Vance fucking a couch in his first speech as VP. This is wholly fabricated: the origin is a twitter user who made up a paragraph from Vance's book, something easily checked. But the meme was astroturfed regardless, and Walz shamelessly referenced it in his first speech. Last night, 5 of the top 10 default posts on Reddit’s /r/All were references to Waltz’s remark.

The strategy is in line with the Democrat push to label Trump “weird”. But it actually seems to cross a line. It is bullying in an especially purified form. It’s the sort of thing you would hear in a middle school, where a bully ostracizes a student by making up a story wholecloth and having his friends repeat it. The bully knows the accusation is false, but the point is to say it confidently and shamelessly where others can hear it and join the ostracizion to protect their reputation. There’s talk about Trump being a “bully”, but nothing he has said has come close to the shameless slander against Vance. Calling Hillary “crooked” is par for the course of political messaging and doesn’t actually impact her reputation. Making fun of McCain for being captured as a PoW also doesn’t really affect McCain’s reputation, and if anything harms Trump’s. Trump usually exaggerates something true, but the attack against Vance is wholly false in origin.

I checked in on the incels over at 4chan to see what were saying about this. And I actually found an insightful analysis:

You can make up literally any random accusation and if enough people in the group either don't like you or just don't want to be left out, they will join in the accusation/mockery no matter how baseless the claim. It only serves to benefit them by being part of the in-group, and obviously feels good to mock someone you dislike or don't care about. You can see this in the democrat "weird" campaign or the "JD Vance fucked a couch" meme. It doesn't matter how juvenile or immaterial the accusation is. It degrades and humiliates the enemy. This effect is particularly common among women and feminine men where it pertains to humiliating enemy men sexually. This wouldn't really matter if it didn't have realized consequences in how people vote or otherwise express their desires and opinions. There are people out there that will actually change their vote or their speech because they don't want to be perceived as "weird' or "creepy", which is the whole point of this type of warfare.

It can also be noted that the attack against Vance has an element of sexual harassment. What would our “cultural elites” (D) say if Republicans went all-in on a story about Kamala Harris violating the intern’s Oval Office laundry machine? Or that she used a priceless piece of White House memorabilia as a dildo without cleaning it off after? This would just be shameless sexual harassment, right? But so is the official DNC strategy against Vance. It’s harassment for the purpose of humiliating someone sexually to change voter perception via shame response.

I’ve been thinking about this a lot over the last few days. The short answer is, no, Republicans are not shamelessly sexually humiliating their opponents enough to win the election. The long answer is, it’s not enough simply to sexually humiliate one’s opponents, one must imply that one’s opponents have something to gain from giving up or switching sides. The subtext of the “these guys are just weird” campaign is that if you young man simply stop trying to police women’s sexual behavior, you too can get laid. Consider the following:

“Since #TamponTim is trending I'll point out that in high school, any boy who casually was like "Oh you got ur period? I stashed a pad from the bathroom in my backpack in case one of my friends needed it" -- that boy would be king stud. That boy would be drowning in prom invites.”

This woman is a “gender and society” columnist at the Washington Post. The message is clear; submit to power [ours] and you will get pussy. What is the Republican message to young women? Become based or you will grow into a childless cat lady? That could work, but it is inherently a multi-step argument. Frankly, conservative media just isn’t good enough to get across a message that complex.

I was the sort of guy who believed advice that got you friend-zoned in high school, and even I wouldn't have fallen for advice like that, and from the responses to her tweet, I don't think anyone is buying it now. She might want to convince people that if you take her bad advice you will get laid, but you have to actually have a convincing message.

That said, I think some of you are dramatically overestimating how much impact "Sexually humiliating the other side" or "Jokes about couch-fucking" actually swing voters. Most people see this as the shit-posting it is. What people are actually going to vote on are not which candidate gives better psychosexual "vibes," but which candidate makes them believe they'll make things better, or at least not make things worse. I wouldn't say most voters really have a great handle on the issues, but the issues (economy, housing, global conflicts, and yes, culture war stuff) are what actually drive votes and turnout.

That said, I think some of you are dramatically overestimating how much impact "Sexually humiliating the other side" or "Jokes about couch-fucking" actually swing voters.

The problem here is that, at best, you're going to fall to an argument that all these awful and disruptive and slanderous behaviors... didn't help with swing voters.

Not hurt. That's not an argument to skip this.

Sorry if that's a rant, but the pro-bullying side of the LGBT politics can quite credibly argue that everything (from bashing homophobia to Santorum's Google Problem to the literal leader of an anti-bullying movement targeting teenagers for public mockery) was a large or the determining factor in a massive swing in political alignment, the anti-bullying side can at best argue that it wasn't necessary, and the moderates can't do anything but flinch from the question. And once you see the pattern there, you start seeing it a lot of places.

I'm not trying to talk anyone out of anything (though I have to admit I am more inclined towards Trace's way of thinking). I just don't think it actually works (other than, I guess, giving you the satisfaction of hurting your enemies). People are treating this like a serious political strategy, as if you find the best burn, the sickest memes, you will move the needle in the mind of the average normie voter. They'll say "Eew, Republicans are so weird!" Or "Eww, Democrats are such pussies!" and this will be reflected in the polls. I think most people here are way too online (myself included) and most voters are not.

People are treating this like a serious political strategy, as if you find the best burn, the sickest memes, you will move the needle in the mind of the average normie voter.

Oh, I'm being far more dire than that. That the normies don't care is a selling point to the extremist argument, here. The pro-bashing perspective -- whether pro- or anti-gay, smear-the-queer or beat-the-nazi, so on -- never was to persuade the average normie voter: it was to motivate and activate your side, and demobilize and delegitimize the opposition.

I'd like to argue that they are wrong, but on some topics it's at least coincided with pretty significant success.

People are treating this like a serious political strategy, as if you find the best burn, the sickest memes, you will move the needle in the mind of the average normie voter.

My impression is that this is less about burns and memes, and more about getting people fired and ostracized from friend groups. I suppose it's not clear that the effect of the tactic was reflected in the polls, but that doesn't mean much, because "what party is in power" is a very poor barometer of social change by itself.

"Strategy" is saying too much. The people doing it aren't in control, and won't be able to stop it when kids start giving other kids beatings because of what they said. But it absolutely does nudge culture (and future actions) one way or another.

Most people on both sides definitely enjoy hurting people, also.