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naraburns  nihil supernum  6mo ago (text post)   27986 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

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Well, I get no Bayes points. I had a feeling Trump'd win, but I didn't say it so it doesn't count.

I'm interested to see what Elon Musk can get up to with the Fair Game order presumably ending, although Twitter's still a millstone that he has to figure out how to delegate. Still, that purchase seems to have swung the election - it's the most obvious cause for the young voters turning away from SJ in droves - so I can't say it was a mistake, just something with costs that he has to minimise going forward. Musk MVP, and I think Trump noticed that in his victory speech.

@Capital_Room, @naraburns, and anyone else who wants to: I'm asking you now for a number on Trump getting murdered or otherwise failing to assume power (e.g. faithless elector scheme, fake elector scheme, 1,000,000 fake votes showing up).

Anyone who wants to: Chance on Biden resigning before Jan 21, so they still get to claim "the first female President"?

I don't think Biden will resign for something so symbolic. But he is old and senile, it's not impossible that she still gets a shot at wrecking Trump's "47" merchandise.

I was wrong, badly, and I'll spend the next week saying that repeatedly, I expect. I should know better than to underestimate Musk.

But that doesn't mean the Democrats have given up. The electoral vote probably won't be close enough to make faithless electors a worthwhile scheme, but it will at least be seriously discussed. I expect the weapon of choice here will be lawfare: Trump isn't president yet, so New York could still try to put him in jail, at least for a while.

I did say many times that I'm not a numbers person. But there's still surely a 5% or 10% chance that someone other than Trump gets sworn in next, I would think. My priors on such a thing are low (it would literally be unprecedented) but we live in interesting times.

But there's still surely a 5% or 10% chance that someone other than Trump gets sworn in next, I would think.

seems huge overestimate and I would bet money against it (up to 1:100 odds, counting transaction costs and risks)

Trump's had two solid assassination attempts, and the Secret Service pretty clearly ain't what they used to be. Blues are all-in that this is a fascist takeover. In 175 million Americans, it would be pretty amazing if there weren't a few more willing to have a go to save the nation, capable of planning better, and coherent enough to make a go of it.

No, they aren’t.

Most outlets are only calling him fascist in conjunction with last week’s news. Going forward, they prefer “dangerous,” “unpredictable,” or “authoritarian.”

More importantly, they aren’t insinuating a takeover. He appears to have won fair and square.

I think both are moot points. The mind which decides to strike a blow against fascism is just as detached from reality as the one that thinks he’ll impress Jodie Foster. Stochastic terrorism is overrated.

That is why I give odds at 1:100, not 1:1000 (note: these are real odds, betting involves extra risks and on bet itself here margin is thin enough to make betting useless for profiting on it)

He also doesn't need to make any more appearances in front of large crowds until the inauguration, which will presumably be covered really well because it involves lots of important people besides Trump. I'm fairly certain he'll survive until January.

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