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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   1841 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for December 1, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Has anyone been tracking H5N1 bird flu? I see occasional doomposting updates from accounts like https://x.com/outbreakupdates/ and I'm trying to figure out if we're all sleeping on something about to go very bad, or if it's "under control" and/or likely to burn out. Haven't seen any recent posts about it on LessWrong, and I'd expect to if it were something (since they were right and early on SARS-CoV-2).

I'm tracking it from time to time.

My suspicion is there is a solid chance we're going to get a pandemic sooner or later.

The spread in animals is not under control at all. The avian flus get more and more chances to mutate into something that transmits from human to human. So far we've been lucky, but how long can that last?

According to some experts who spoke at a WHO webinar I watched, we're in a "low risk situation that can suddenly become very high risk"...

Vaccines are being developed, but it remains to be seen if we get them quickly enough, or if not, if enough doses can be manufactured in time to at least reduce the damage done.

Vaccines are being developed, but it remains to be seen if we get them quickly enough, or if not, if enough doses can be manufactured in time to at least reduce the damage done.

And if people will actually take the damn thing after the fights across the country about COVID that are just now cooling down.

If the death rate is much higher than COVID, which appears increasingly likely, people will forget about those objections pretty fast.

Uh, hate to break it to you, but no we won't. Maybe the bodies will teach us to trust public health again, but it'll be too late.

We’ll see, I expect that if Trump comes out in full support (like last time) you will.

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