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From /u/gwern (@gwern ?): analysis on China’s semiconductor industry.
Recent export controls are directly targeting the Chinese ability to fabricate cutting-edge chips. The subsequent effect on electronics prices and the much-maligned supply chain won’t be pleasant—especially for China, and especially if their industry is already slumping. Consequences for the rest of the world are left as an exercise to the reader.
Given the forum, it’s not surprising that the focus is on AI. I’m more interested in the geopolitical outlook. This is an incentive to retaliate, perhaps even against the other regional semiconductor fabricator. And it is suggested that the timing is a calculated insult to Chinese leadership, as they are apparently going through a periodic dog-and-pony show of elections. Gwern suggests that China would otherwise be raising hell.
The counterpart in US domestic politics: crunching semiconductor supply will not mix well with inflation. I don’t think adding $50 to the next iPhone will make or break Democrats, but it seems unlikely to help.
I want to place predictions, but I don’t have a good grasp of the metrics involved. Place your bets, I guess, for:
China taking economic action
China taking military action
Consequences on Chinese industry
Tech policy towards China becoming a wedge issue in American politics
Interesting thread on the ssc subreddit from two months ago, which argues that this measures will actually benefit the Beijing regime. Reasoning being that this will create a market free of US competition, ready made for Chinese companies. A measure which China imposed on itself regarding the internet companies, leading to the success of domestic companies such as Alibaba.
Not sure I follow.
The argument is that banning export of a specific product creates a big incentive. That seems reasonable in a free market. But to what extent is the Chinese domestic market free? They could have banned Xeon imports themselves.
China wants, very badly, to have top tier fabrication. The fact that they haven’t gone full protectionist suggests that it isn’t the most efficient way to get what they want, probably because it would stall all the dependent industries in the meantime. I think the Internet was a different story: controlled for social reasons, and the market for Alibaba was a secondary effect.
If China REALLY wants top tier fabrication, they just have to..
I get the "just build your own right-wing Twitter / web host / credit card processor" reference, but I don't know if most would.
I meant they could invade Taiwan
I'm pretty hesitant to make any predictions about whether China will or won't invade or blockade Taiwan and what the outcomes are likely to be, except for one thing: if China invades Taiwan and looks likely to prevail at any point, then I am confident that TSMC will not survive the conflict. The West will make sure that it doesn't, if it comes down to it. There's no world where China successfully commandeers TSMC.
Exactly. If there are adults running the show they'll have planned where to put the explosives, have aircraft standing by and know the schools key TSMC employees kids will go to.
What are you suggesting? That they should kill the employees' kids?
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