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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned, a sign of yet more changing of the times as the Prime Minister since 2015 marks the end of an decade of Liberal Party rule of Canada, and possibly yet another political dynasty scalp Donald Trump may claim. While Trudeau's critics and issues go far beyond Trump, the internal-party revolt since the US 2024 election will put another person on the podium right as Donald Trump assumes office, part of a broader realignment in the West as governments including Germany, France, and others have seen falls- several deliberate- to re-roll priorities and mandates in (temporal) alignment with the change in the US presidency. (Canada's 2025 election, much like Germany's, is/was scheduled for October. Canada's parliament is suspended until 24 March where a new PM will (hopefully) be chosen.)
Broadly associated with the more progressive-woke politics, Trudeau's liberals are expected to face a shellacking, though whether that's as part of Canada's experience of the anti-incumbant wave of the last decade, a backlash to progressive politics, or Trudeau's own personal contribution. (Last year, 49% of respondents in a Canadian survey characterized the PM as 'Arrogant,' which is often just the first and more polite words in some lists.)
A (much) longer political obituary can be read here for those who are curious. Regardless of one's views of the man, the sun will continue to rise, the earth rotate, and life will go on.
But we may never get another world leader on camera in blackface.
Related: Now Trump is pushing for the annexation of Canada
If the United States invaded Canada out of the blue one day what would happen? Would they even shoot back? If Canada invoked Article V would the UK or France threaten nuclear war?
I don’t really have a model for this, and yet it could easily happen.
It really, really couldn’t easily happen.
Politically, it’s completely bizarre. Not even in the Overton window until Trump opened his mouth. There is zero reason for Congress to authorize an invasion, and zero process for secretly preparing one as a fait accompli.
It’s slightly more plausible that an unhinged President could approve special forces raids or even airstrikes. The military is much more ready to enact something like that on short notice. It’s still incredibly stupid, pointless, and not going to happen over a tweet.
I don’t see it happening now, but if Canada continues to suffer economic and political decline, I could see a Ukraine/Russia scenario in 10-40 years where certain provinces start trying to break off and join the United States, and that eventually leading to a war of annexation. Especially if the US continues down the authoritarian/militaristic path it’s been drifting along on for the last 4 decades.
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