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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   1726 thread views

Transnational Thursday for March 20, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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What's your current take on the ongoing Ukraine diplomatic drama? Are the Trump Talks likely to lead to the Trump Treaty? Or are they just ongoing comedy and flailing? What does a durable peace treaty look like these days?

Extra thick tinfoil hat take:

This is all kayfabe, and deal, big beautiful deal, had already been made - deal trading Ukraine for Syria and Iran. The surprising fall of Syrian regime had been only the beginning, and Iran is next on the chopping block.

Just one current puzzle piece supporting this take - not only US and Israel, but Azerbaijan too seems to be readying.

Yes, it is something from Tom Clancy novel - US air, naval and space forces engage in brilliant shock&awe campaign, while mighty Azeri Army rolls to Tabriz and Tehran and inside Iran several unexpected surprises in September 2024 style happen. Freedom wins, bald eagles rejoice, all who remember 1979 get their revenge.

But current world is place where things are against happening in true Hollywood kino way. The new screenwriters hired in 2020 are pros who know their job.

Do the Azeris have any significant grudges against Iran? I'm not too familiar with the history there.

Iran oppressed Azeris a little bit and they’re enemies for regional political reasons.

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