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I wouldn’t mind seeing more about those serious estimates. The one you linked is methodological and doesn’t provide a total.
Other than that, I generally agree. Trump’s personal aesthetics don’t really care about foreign casualties. He’s going to manage Ukraine in whatever way serves his domestic politics, so previous support is probably a high-water mark. It’s not going to get any harder for Russia.
Worst outcome for Ukraine. They keep getting a trickle that only allows them to throw more bodies into the meat grinder but affords them no chance to win. Grim.
They could stop
Zelensky would get assassinated if he tried and Russia doesn't have an incentive to stop at this time, so good will would look like weakness.
Blowing up every remaining fighting age Ukrainian and as many Russians as it takes is, tragically, the path of least resistance.
There was hope that the US could create new incentives but it looks like it was too little too late. I hope I'm wrong.
By whom? Who's the power behind Ukraine staying in the war? What is it hoping to achieve? Been looking for analysis on this for a while and not found any.
By the state / defense bureaucracy which is comprised (at this stage, after numerous purges) of ardent nationalists.
Where do commercial interests fit in? Is there some class of Ukrainian leadership/economic heavyweights which is hoping to gain from protracted slow-rolling defeat?
Do you really think commercial interests are eager to go up against spicy nationalist types who have spent the last ~6 years at war or have seen all their friends die and have drone building and piloting skills ?
It only takes one team of fanatics to kill you dead, and when they can do it over a 3g network from the other side of a country ..
It's more that I have a hard time believing that the people in control aren't looking to gain something here, but are truly that ideologically committed.
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