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So a new peace treaty for Ukraine war just dropped .
Trump’s proposed Ukraine peace plan would recognize Crimea as Russian, accept Russian control over parts of Donbas and southern Ukraine, and offer Ukraine vague European security guarantees, unfettered access to Dnieper partial territorial returns, and U.S.-backed reconstruction. It also includes U.S. control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal. Vance said that the deal is final and in the case of rejection US will stop being a part of peacemaking process.
I think it's basically a great deal for both sides(I admit my bias cause for me any peace would be better than war). Ukraine loses nothing that it de facto has right now and gains territory in Kharkov, it can finally heal and maybe with some smart leadership, international investment and membership in EU it can rise to the heights of neighboring Poland, I doubt that it will and I already written on the motte why, but some chance is way better than no chance.
For Russia and specifically for Putin this is a way to claim victory after his many failures including starting this retarded SMO. Maybe for Russian state it would be better to deal with this close of an enemy once and for all, but it will not happen under current leadership and Putin is no nationalist, so even with total victory we would see semi puppet state in Ukraine that would break of as soon as possible. We are talking about person who still haven't annexed Belarus for christ sake.
I think kremlins are ready to accept this and even slightly worse versions of this deal, cause they already shown signs of it throught whole war, starting in March of 2022 and dictators are more likely to seek limited peace anyway. On the other hand Europe is actually putting some effort into its militarization, I'v seen news about new German ammunition facilities, and could collectively decide to continue the war even if US fully withdraws after rejecting the deal(which is in my opinion unlikely). That could prolong the conflict by another couple of years, probably lead to the Ukrainian territory gains but I can't see how it's worth the devastation that it would cause.
Honestly the best thing Putin could do is accept it. Ukraine will never accept it, so it is a safe bet.
What would their alternative be? Ukraine is being pressured along the entire front. They haven't had a proper attack since August, in which they claimed an equivalent of less than 1% of the land they have lost while attack an area that the Russians barely were defending. Ukraine is facing a demographic crisis not seen since the collapse of Rome.
Ukrainian nationalists seem to be wildly detached from reality. They want a national socialist state financed by Keir starmer after their war has a miraculous turn around in which they go from being pressed back to smashing through the Russian lines and Russia collapsing. At some point they have to stop speaking in slogans and start focusing on what is practical. Their negotiating position isn't improving with time.
Crybulling. Zelensky is master of that.
Wouldn't crybullying require that you're actually in a dominant position while pretending not to be?
No, just being able to manipulate authorities. Kindergartners learn it
Being in a dominant position follows from it, unless the authorities are powerless.
Or there can be a new teacher, but the bully still uses the same tricks that worked on the old one
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