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ulyssessword  2d ago (text post)   1323 thread views

Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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So question to people who know Canadian politics better: how much Trump's "51 state" shenanigans mattered? In my opinion - which, me not being a Canadian, together with $5 gives you a cup of coffee - Trudeau was a disaster. It looks like Canadians, however, want more of the same. Is it because they really like what Canada is becoming under Trudeau? Would like to hear opinions from people with good background in Canadian politics, especially Canadians themselves.

Conservatives in Canada have a really really hard time not being seen as the most regressive of the US republicans (and it doesn’t actually even matter what they say or do). There was an expression that went something like “When America sneezes, Canada catches a cold.”

I know intelligent people who were absolutely convinced the CPC was coming for gay rights and their uteruses (the leader of the CPC grew up with two dads). Combine that with our culture of TDS and you are going to have people doing anything to keep the CPC out.

Somewhat interestingly, the CPC actually got a fairly respectable percentage of the vote (around 41.5%, last time I checked) - it isn’t uncommon for the CPC to win with a percentage around 37%. Most of the reason they lost was because the NDP absolutely torpedoed their party, and most of those votes went Liberals.

Edit, because I just saw this today. https://torontosun.com/news/national/donald-trump-brags-that-he-cost-pierre-poilievre-federal-election. Take it with a bit of a grain of salt, as the Toronto Sun is definitely right wing (and honestly veers a bit hard in that direction for me personally), but it implies that Trump, at least, believes he did.

Canadian parties are more fluid than American parties. Leftists seem generally very willing to swap between the Liberals and NDP, and within Quebec the Bloc, so if you don't like one right now, you just switch for a bit. That seems to weaken general anti-left arguments. Uniting the right wing parties under the CPC got Harper elected but also gives the left a single target.

This is right on -- comparing some riding level results with 2021, it looks an awful lot like significant NDP support went to all the way to the Conservative side this time. Of course votes are fungible, so there was maybe some 3-way swapping -- but it Liberals did not pick up anything like all of the NDP losses, and somehow it's much easier for me to imagine a pissed-off NDPer voting for PP than a long-term Grit shifting that way. (to be replaced by a centre-leaning NDPer presumably)

but it Liberals did not pick up anything like all of the NDP losses

The problem is that the Conservative side does, from an economic standpoint, what the NDP is supposed to be doing far better than the NDP itself does... and from a social policy standpoint, the Liberal side does what the NDP does but better.

There's no room for them in Canadian politics now that they're as polarized as US politics are (by the same forces that resulted in that polarization).

I think I agree -- if they'd kept up with the rural wing instead of going all-in on urban progressivism, gay/gun stuff, etc there might be a small niche for them. Very candidate dependent though.

there might be a small niche for them

Of course- if the Western Leftist party returned to being the Western Leftist party there's obviously still a niche there.

The problem is that the Western Leftist party is unwilling or unable to meaningfully distinguish themselves from the Eastern Leftist party, and so trying to outcompete the Eastern Leftists on destroying Western culture in general is- in a shocking twist- not an election winner in the West.

If the West were its own country, as it should be, this would be a natural political progression. But it's not, and Westerners are (when you look at the election map) clearly more focused on having a West to begin with rather than whether left or right should rule it.

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