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ulyssessword  4d ago (text post)   1473 thread views

Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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Polls closed in Newfoundland two hours ago, and it's not looking good for the pollsters. CBC has called two seats for the Conservatives and they're leading in a third, while three have been called for the Liberals and they're leading in a fourth. The prediction was 7-0 Liberal (two "toss up", five "Lib. Likely").

The Maritimes are closer to the prediction, with the Conservatives leading/called in 8 ridings vs. the prediction of 7.

I'm confused about how Canadian regions are divided. Which ridings are you counting? Central Newfoundland, Terra Nova, Avalon, Long Range, Labrador...what am I missing?

Roughly, Canadian regions are divided as follows:

  • Quebec (Lower Canada)
  • Toronto-Montreal (Upper Canada)
  • Maritimes (Atlantic Canada- they'll argue they have distinct identities, and they do, but they're too small to be relevant here)
  • West (Everything Else)

Take US politics, remove all the checks and balances that prevent SF/NYC/DC from turning the US into a one-party state, and you have Canadian politics. It's a very simple country to understand.

Personally I mentally separate the West and BC. When people talk about "the West" they are not talking about Coquitlam.

BC is split between "Left Coast" and "Western Canada", with the former having a higher population, but the latter covering more area.

If you want a breakdown of the situation in BC you have but to look at the election map- notice how, much like some states, the small city runs more or less roughshod over the rest of the province.

It didn’t necessarily used to be that way, but it is that way now, functionally permanently; turns out city vs. everyone else is a strong local maximum for the city.

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