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They have state controlled media. They can always just lie. Also, they can just cheat on whatever deals they do make and brag about it. Maybe Trump won't even notice.
I donno man. Even before 2024 Trump, I've been seen weird "read between the lines" predictions that China's economy is secretly fucked. But I never know what to take seriously, because it's basically a choice between believing state run media, or cranks. One side says everything is amazing and they have 8% GDP growth, the other side says China is already in a recession.
Then again, they say the same thing about the US...
But I find it not impossible to believe that inside the black box that is the Chinese economy, the wheels already came off long ago and it's just barely holding together with chewing gum and rubber bands.
And the rubber bands were manufactured in China.
Unless China is absolutely fudging their population numbers to UNDERCOUNT their population drastically (which would be a galaxy-brained move) then they are absolutely fucked in the medium term. There is no way to counterbalance a population where there's a massive class of consumers (the old and decrepit) and not nearly enough producers (young-middle aged workers) to keep everyone at a reasonable standard of living.
Its baked in. The collapse will come, Wile-E-Coyote already ran off the cliff, but they may be able to keep him from looking down for a while with propaganda and manipulation, or manage the fall down better than expected.
The problem with all this nonsense (yours and @WhiningCoil's) is the projection of the degenerate American condition where somewhat organized 20th century things are next to impossible to do, so you have to rely on Bronze age factors like the proportion of – to a large extent functionally illiterate, obese, criminal and unhealthy, but at least physically mobile – population to kick the can down the road. Infrastructure cannot be adapted. Automation cannot be done, that's fake news, that'd require, like, electric engineering and other nerd shit that doesn't offer good P/E for the financial fraud class to get fat off. The olds will consume the surplus, or else revolt, because you cannot do anything against pensioners (eg provide very cheap industrialized welfare to have them shut up, or as @veqq says, just let them live out their lives in the naturally cheap countryside). Housing bubble will crash and bury the economy, because of course, the debt is secretly much higher than it seems, because Communists always lie with their fake statistics, we learned that from the Soviet Union, the previous “champion” of electronics exports and gacha games.
It's surreal to watch how their nation-scale companies like BYD operate, compare this to the shambolic, truly late Soviet bullshit going on in the US, and then observe all this Gordon Chang tier punditry. Their working age population is right now just short of 1 billion people. They're, it seems, overall higher quality people too, they live longer, ask for less and work harder. Tighter margins all around, higher efficiency of converting revenue to capex… There is, admittedly, a lot of population locked in agriculture and low-productivity sectors, so fine, the effective discrepancy in workforce might be “only” 5x. Do you seriously imagine that economies of scale in a nation with 5x the American workforce will amount to Wile-E-Coyote running off a cliff. Okay, I'll keep watching how it goes.
Yes. Find me a single instance in history where a nation was able smoothly transition through a period of declining population as the old begin to outnumber the young.
Especially one that is utterly dependent on continued imports of agricultural products and energy and most raw materials for that workforce to do anything productive.
https://www.cfr.org/article/china-increasingly-relies-imported-food-thats-problem
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62804
They are simply unprepared to weather any situation where they can't afford to purchase necessary economic inputs from other countries.
Which is what their population cliff threatens to cause.
Can you give me a list of failure cases?
This is uncharted territory. All developed countries are aging, and all of them are losing out in overall population productivity through some combination of aging, dysgenics and demographic replacement. It's not even clear that China is declining faster than the US – at the very least, they are consistently graduating more and more highly educated workers, while Americans are struggling to hire literate people for menial jobs. Quantitatively, Chinese workforce size will continue to exceed the entire Western world's one for decades. Dependency ratio will reach Japanese levels in, what, 2045? This is not serious.
What does this have to do with anything? They'll keep importing soybeans from Brazil and iron from Australia. They have $1T trade surplus and, for some years, have been annually installing as much or more industrial automation than the entire rest of the world combined. Their problem right now is not workforce, but that the world is too poor to absorb their exports.
Do you just operate on the assumption that China is a land of mobilized peasants gluing sneakers by hand, and when peasants get old, the gig is over?
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The denominator here is likely to be extremely low.
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They don't have much wealth. Because wages continue to increase quickly, the 30-40 year olds are sending their parents more money each year than their whole anemic pensions, while saving themselves (although what asset classes they can save substantial sums in, is questionable right now.) It's not like the US where e.g. retired UPS workers get pension adjustments over inflation while current workers don't and aren't on track to receive any such benefits. (Also, the Chinese old seem to return to/reside in the country side, living very cheaply and consuming even less than their paltry wealth would suggest, compared to the racket of e.g. US retirement homes.)
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Yes, there is. "Keep everyone at a reasonable standard of living" is not a requirement for what remains a Communist dictatorship.
I don't see the disagreement?
The economy will have to contract, this will lead to lower standards of living, and thus there's no way China can maintain its status as a continually growing economy?
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But it is a requirement for ruling China. The communist party knows that its mandate comes from being able to "Keep everyone at a reasonable standard of living" ; in fact, the mandate for anyone ruling China, communist or not, is to fulfill that need.
If they can't guarentee reasonable standards of living, then revolution and uprisings are on the table.
That it is not, as Mao demonstrated.
It is perhaps more accurate to consider the pre- and post-Mao CCP as entities that share continuity but otherwise represents a break, in the same way that the Tang overthrew the Sui in the 6th century (after the Sui were bankrupting the country to invade Goguryeo) but essentially retained its edit: broad institutions and ministries.
One important thing to note about the Mandate of Heaven is that it is less extensive than the divine right of kings elsewhere in the world. The right to rebellion is explicitly written into the Mandate of Heaven.
In which case you have precious little precedent to demonstrate that it is necessary to guarantee reasonable standards of living to rule China.
I don't even know how to respond to this. Did I not explain further literally in the same sentence?
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I mean, compared to the disasters and mismanagement that occurred pre-mao, the great leap forward really isn't that much worse. Regardless, Deng came to power right after and instituted his reforms; I'd say a prolonged period of mismanagement would have definitely sparked another revolution.
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I don't know about "secretly fucked". But they are very dependent on exports, and the US is their second largest market (after the E.U.), so whether they were fucked before or not, the tariffs fuck them now.
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