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What does a Russian nuclear escalation look like?
Russia conducts a nuclear test in its own territory. Foreign policy types freak out, Ukraine shrugs, Russia continues losing.
Russia conducts a nuclear attack on Urkainian forces in Ukraine with an ultimatum for a cease fire. Foreign policy and serious military types freak out. Ukraine howls, Europeans increase sanctions, but also schism. A nominal cease fire might be started, but Russian demands for recognition of their demands schisms Europe as people who actually care about stable nuclear game theory recognize this is precisely the sort of demand you can't accede to for a stable nash equilibrium.
Nuclear-derived case fires will probably not hold, as 'I get to conquer you since I have nuclear weapons' is an extremely nuclear proliferation incentive beyond just Poland and other European powers. Conflict possibly transitions to an asymmetric conflict, but probably transitions into a conventional military artillery/UAV duel with drone exchanges as low-altitude drones become the 'plausible deniable' weapon of choice while SOF work.
I do not anticipate the world backing down at all if Russia conducts a nuclear attack against Ukraine. I imagine they would alienate both China and India at the minimum and see sanctions from that camp.
It's not like Russia would be threatening them, so 'not like' has nothing to do with 'backing down.'
This is one of those cases where Europe is not 'the world,' and conflation will make the general conflict apathy seem surprising when 'the world's' preference is not getting caught in a nuclear exchange more than the security structure of Europe.
This is plausible but I hope we never find out.
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Unclear. Tactical nuclear weapons aren't necessarily all that useful on the battlefield. People think of nukes as "destroy everything bombs", but if we're talking about an armoured division spread out across a few square miles, then a small nuke is hardly a game changer (and ironically, a lot of the ex-Soviet hardware Ukraine is packing is precisely designed to allow crew survivability in the wake of a nuclear strike). A nuclear missile on Kiev, Lviv, or Odessa might be effective, but would instantly mark Russia as a pariah state - the breaking of the nuclear taboo (and the consequent breakdown of non-proliferation) is in no way in the interests of their few remaining global friends like China or India.
The least bad nuclear escalation from Moscow, I think, would be a nuclear test (following appropriate legal measures to excuse Russia from its test-ban commitments). This would incur relatively few diplomatic costs, and would immediately raise the stakes for all concerned. That said, it wouldn't change the situation on the battlefield at all. At best, it might prompt a fresh round of negotiations with Erdogan et al. as intermediaries.
if russia starts reaching for its nuclear gun, it probably ought to shoot. Gesturing in that direction is gonna solidify opinion against russia in a way i don't think i've ever seen in my life, aid$$$ will flow like coors light at a nascar tailgate from around the globe. Fucking joint action committees with every swinging johnson except for russia would be happening. The nuclear card is the end of russia, and russia likely knows not to use it unless the end is nigh.
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