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Notes -
So what about the German right-wing conspiracy that got busted? On one hand, they seem pretty crazy with conspiracy theories and actually believing that the German people would support a coup. On the other hand, they don't seem like random nobodies but the kind of people you would want on your coup if you were to do a coup.
Link to news story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63885028
Some random thoughts:
Was this conspiracy realistic? Or was it just a big larp? (Are all coups big larps?)
How strong were the Russian connections? Are the arrests a blow to Putin?
Why do the conspiracy thing when you can just do normal politics in AfD and actually get power the true and tried way [insert reference to well-known, democratically successful German right wing leader]. Or if you insist on conspiracy, you can at least march trough the institutions, it seems like the better option? And if you really need power nownow, why not just take the exit option (e.g. move to Russia and make your own auth-right comune there?)?
I'd be happy for someone who has an actual take or an interesting perspective on this to create their own top level thread.
So "larp" is colloquial and sloppy. With things like these, that seem to have little chance of success and members that are quite detached from reality, it's often inferred that the reason these guys are loading up on guns and talking about coups is not that they actually want to do a coup, but instead more that they want to be the kind of person who does a coup. Hence the "larp". I guess there's danger in psycho-analysing people through the news though. Still, I would imagine that ex-special forces guys know a thing or two about coups and wouldn't plan something that's obviously doomed to fail. But maybe I'm just overestimating the jarheads.
Seems like the likely scenario.
I guess I just assume people are rational and intelligent and that people with strong political convictions take reasonable steps to reach their political goals. I just need to downgrade that prior, when I read it aloud I myself realize it's stupid.
There are more strange stories about German soldiers coming out these days.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-ex-soldiers-sentenced-for-planning-mercenary-force-in-yemen/a-63540736
"Christian fundamentalists" following advice of fortune teller? To join a war between Muslim factions? The whole thing as described in news makes no sense (maybe German definition of "fundamentalist" is one who visits church more frequently than twice per year?)
Wait, what? Are they going to prosecute Germans who're fighting in Ukraine?
I guess the thing about the idea of liability is that, while the consequences aren't perfectly-guaranteed, it's really not worth the risk at all. I would guess they might not go after German volunteers in Ukraine unless it's universally-applied as such.
As Eetan pointed out, that article seems rather...vaguely-worded.
There's been thousands and thousands of volunteers from Western countries. Probably under 10k, overall though.
In March, Russians almost killed perhaps 500 westerners in a cruise missile attack; luckily, the missile aimed at the actual barracks building was apparently one of the few that got shot down by air defence. (this was said by the soldier in the recent video interview posted to the main page)
Russian MOD is saying so far they believe they've killed 300 Americans. (I'm wondering what time will tell)
Yeah, I'm thinking there probably aren't consequences, it's all who/whom as usual.
Sure, Western countries "aren't at war' with Russia, but somehow, billions of dollars in weapons and lots of qualified military personnel end up fighting Russia in Ukraine.
Mhmm. Could be a bit more egregious, the West could just start sending entire military units over, volunteer soldiers signing up, equipment and everything just gifted. Next level after that is Russia's "polite men".
I figured the logical next-step from a certain five sided building would be to get a law passed, reasonable and neutral on its face, the Lafayette Law. The Lafayette Law would enable the Secretary of State to maintain a list declaring countries friendly or unfriendly, and allow US servicemen in time of peace to apply for a leave of absence to serve in the military of any friendly country that is at war, provided that the serviceman can demonstrate a personal family connection to the country. Arguments in favor will be that it is to maintain discipline, asking Ukrainian-descended servicemen to sit on their asses at an Air Force base in Wichita while their cousins are getting murdered is a tough ask, better to create a formal pathway for them to take leave rather than have them desert. Historically, tie it to Lafayette and Pulaski and Von Steuben, the foreigners without whom the American Revolution would have failed.
No big deal, how many Ukrainians are in the US marines anyway? And how many will want to take leave? Well, when the Pentagon writes the actual regulations, they decide that having a Ukrainian fiancee counts as family connections. And after all, who doesn't meet online these days? Especially a guy on a remote military base? And hey, it is only fair, that soldiers who fight in Ukraine get to keep advancing their seniority, might even get promotions because you've seen how they function in action.
So you get 10,000 marines volunteering to fight in Ukraine, who all have online LDRs with some Ukrainian chatbot with pretty pictures to back it up. And because the process above takes months, there is no one moment when Russia really has credibility to say this is an escalation. Just one squad at a time, soldiers keep showing up.
Well, that's one way of preventing an AI catastrophe - slowly but surely escalate a regional proxy war into less proxy war, then to an actual war between big powers..
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