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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   15625 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 19, 2022

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I see “personal carbon credits” as the new horizon, with opposition being taken down quickly with accusations of racism and/or conspiracy theory

Unlikely, given how fast transition towards photovoltaics and such is currently happening. Also fusion.

Degrowth people exist, but they're not convincing others.

As we’re seeing, photovoltaics and wind power are terrible from an energy security perspective. Nuclear isn’t, but it won’t get built.

Distributed system is terrible from energy security perspective? Really?

As for amount of energy, there's enough investment that at worst there would be some years with lower supply. Maybe shortages during one or two months of winter. That's not exactly apocalyptic.

Distributed system is terrible from energy security perspective? Really?

Theoretically, or actually existing distributed systems?

There are new geothermal projects which are pretty cool, obviously can't build them everywhere but there is more hope than people seem willing to admit to on either side of this debate.

30MW is chump change sadly. They're knocking down a dam that provides ten times that with no plan for replacement. (it'll be gas turbines or blackouts, depending on how much power the greens get)

Obviously a low-carbon energy infrastructure which actually works can be built, but, well, no one wants to do that. Progressives want a green new deal that seems to pick its projects based on their unreliability, conservatives want a gas-fired grid, and moderates want a series of tax credits that cost money to install photovoltaic panels on the residential roofs which don’t cover energy use.

Obviously a low-carbon energy infrastructure which actually works can be built

Obviously? If nuclear's off the table, I don't think this is obvious at all.

Nuclear being off the table is the reason it will never be built.

And yet here I have linked a reliable zero emission project worth somewhere in the ballpark of $60 million being built in california of all places.

Photovoltaics are the mechanism that turns "decarbonization" into "winter blackouts". Replace 50gw of coal with 50gw of solar (CF-adjusted), arguing that these are equivalent. Next winter your grid will collapse and rationing based on "social value" can begin.

See this graph of current germany power production showing solar and wind delivering nothing during the highest loads of the year. (Note this doesn't even include heating, because sky-high kwh prices mean they still use coal and gas for one of the largest winter loads!)

If you talk to any of the greens pushing "fundamental cultural changes", they are all targeting degrowth.

Fusion is irrelevant - there's nothing that work, and practically all methods that do work would result in massive amounts of irradiated parts after decomissioning - something the green lobby would pounce upon, knowing full well that to a typical HR manager, there's no difference between e.g. spent fuel and material that's neutron-activated reactor parts due to intense neutron flux.

Photovoltaics are worse than irrelevant, without corresponding battery tech (that doesn't exist) they're just a way of making your energy production much more expensive by making it bimodal. You have to invest into conventional power plants that you only run some of the time.

Degrowth people exist, but they're not convincing others.

They don't have to convince anyone. They're and have been writing EU policy for decades. At the moment, the plan is to carbon-tax everything by 2032. They're also just about to close down something like a third of Dutch farming sector due to 'nitrogen emissions'.

They might become accountable about three years after a severe economic collapse, by which time most of them will have decamped for the US or Australia or someplace.

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