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Notes -
Update on the Scottish Dual-Wielding Incident:
The BBC has now published a brief but informative report on the Scottish “dual-wielding” incident, mostly relaying statements from the local police. If you missed the story: a Bulgarian couple, male and female, were approached by local youths in St Ann Lane, Lochee, at about 7:40 pm on Saturday. At some point, an axe made an appearance. The police have issued a statement, and the BBC, in a notably careful choice of words, clarifies: “BBC News understands that officers have found no evidence to substantiate claims being made online the youths were at risk of sexual assault.”
Of course, I have every confidence that some corners of the internet, including select denizens of The Motte, will find this hopelessly unconvincing. If your current epistemic stance is “If she floats, she’s a witch; if she sinks, she’s a witch,” then no combination of facts, logic, or official statements will ever suffice. If your model of the world is that everyone is lying except you and your Telegram group, my ability to shift your priors is probably limited.
Still, let me offer my own semi-informed perspective as someone who is, if not a local, at least more familiar with the Scottish context than your average Redditor. From the beginning, both /r/Scotland and /r/Dundee expressed skepticism toward the popular Twitter narrative. You know the one: a pair of wide-eyed local waifs accosted by a “brown pervert,” who then had no choice but to brandish medieval weaponry in righteous self-defense. You can practically hear the John Williams score.
Now, Scotland is not short on delinquent youth. The British white underclass is, in fact, legendary for its supply of teenage hooligans. Here in Scotland, the local taxonomic label is “ned.” While “non-educated delinquent” is probably a post hoc invention, the behavioral phenotype is easily identified. There is a rich ecosystem of teenagers hanging around bus stops, acting tough, and performing questionable antics. One of their favorite tactics, if challenged, is to shout “pedophile” at the nearest authority figure, thus flipping the script from “annoying brat” to “potential victim.” This tends to work, at least until they age out of the game and (statistically) either get jobs or fall prey to Dundee’s prodigious drug scene.
On the question of weaponry, it bears repeating that it is illegal in Scotland to carry anything that even vaguely resembles a weapon for self-defense. For the Americans in the audience, this is not Texas. Not only is it illegal, it is also, in local context, not normal to walk around with an axe. While I actually find this arrangement not to my libertarian sensibilities, that's neither here nor there. My own priors, which seem to match those of most actual Scots I’ve spoken to, lean toward a more mundane explanation. The girl went out carrying because she wanted to impress her boyfriend, or at least to raise her standing among her peers. She might have been looking for trouble, or simply wanted to show off, and twelve is not too young to have social status games on your mind. Puberty isn’t the only thing that comes early in these parts.
I can only reiterate that an axe is not normal to carry, even if one feels threatened. A pocket knife? I can understand, sure. But this is about as 'extra' as taking a hand-grenade to a seedy pub when you're worried about being roofied.
As for the “migrant crime” angle, I want to point out that Scotland is not England, and certainly not Rotherham. The “migrant problem” is much less pronounced here. Outside Edinburgh or Glasgow, brown skin is still a curiosity, more likely to prompt a friendly question than suspicion. Most of the time, it’s just an excuse for conversation. Scotland has its own problems, but racialized sexual predation is not at the top of the list.
I would like to believe that this clarification settles things, but I am also not naïve. If your epistemic filter is tuned to maximum paranoia, then the absence of evidence is merely further evidence of a cover-up. For everyone else, the police statement, local skepticism, and sociological context should nudge your priors at least a little.
Of course, if you prefer your axes in the hands of twelve-year-olds fighting imaginary Bulgarian sex pests, I suppose nothing I write will convince you otherwise.
It does seem more likely to me that this is underclass behavior than a self-defense video from a rapey migrant. However:
It is written in the scriptures that:
Now we're not talking about the scientific establishment this time, but a part of the United Kingdom. While this incident is not from Rotherham or Yorkshire, the state and its justice system from have a history of covering up child abuse by immigrants in the name of "community relations", as well as coming down disproportionately heavily on people who object. While you might say there are proportionately fewer migrants in Scotland, external online observers are going to be aware of Scotland's woke politics. There was the
Adam GrahamIsla Bryson case, where a rapist adopted a transgender identity during the court process, and was sent to a woman's prison. A sibling comment already mentioned the railroading of Count Dankula. There was also the £7bn superinjunction covering up the importing of 18000–19000 Afghans. It is very easy to say "we found no evidence" if "we" choose not to look very hard, and very easy for an external online observer to believe that the police and other systems in Scotland would do just that, given that we know from West Yorkshire that local police have been part of cover-ups in the past.So I think it is perfectly rational to have suspicious priors if one is familiar with Rotherham and the extent of similar coverups in the UK, only saw a still from the video, and/or only read suspiciously carefully worded articles from mainstream sources. But the perspective of the camera in the video makes it harder to believe. Screaming "pedophile!" is a weapon underclass kids know how to wield; so is the reflexive "phone camera on, start recording" move. If there was a migrant behaving inappropriately I would expect to see him in the shot, as well as the armed girl.
It has been alleged that the camera man perved on the the 12yo sister and when rebuffed hit her and planted her on the ground, then the older sister went and got her dual wielding setup.
I would like to get the other side of the story, but preferably not from internet randos.
Unfortunately the only things I can find arguing that story are still at the "screenshots of chats" level of evidence.
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