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Notes -
Update on the Scottish Dual-Wielding Incident:
The BBC has now published a brief but informative report on the Scottish “dual-wielding” incident, mostly relaying statements from the local police. If you missed the story: a Bulgarian couple, male and female, were approached by local youths in St Ann Lane, Lochee, at about 7:40 pm on Saturday. At some point, an axe made an appearance. The police have issued a statement, and the BBC, in a notably careful choice of words, clarifies: “BBC News understands that officers have found no evidence to substantiate claims being made online the youths were at risk of sexual assault.”
Of course, I have every confidence that some corners of the internet, including select denizens of The Motte, will find this hopelessly unconvincing. If your current epistemic stance is “If she floats, she’s a witch; if she sinks, she’s a witch,” then no combination of facts, logic, or official statements will ever suffice. If your model of the world is that everyone is lying except you and your Telegram group, my ability to shift your priors is probably limited.
Still, let me offer my own semi-informed perspective as someone who is, if not a local, at least more familiar with the Scottish context than your average Redditor. From the beginning, both /r/Scotland and /r/Dundee expressed skepticism toward the popular Twitter narrative. You know the one: a pair of wide-eyed local waifs accosted by a “brown pervert,” who then had no choice but to brandish medieval weaponry in righteous self-defense. You can practically hear the John Williams score.
Now, Scotland is not short on delinquent youth. The British white underclass is, in fact, legendary for its supply of teenage hooligans. Here in Scotland, the local taxonomic label is “ned.” While “non-educated delinquent” is probably a post hoc invention, the behavioral phenotype is easily identified. There is a rich ecosystem of teenagers hanging around bus stops, acting tough, and performing questionable antics. One of their favorite tactics, if challenged, is to shout “pedophile” at the nearest authority figure, thus flipping the script from “annoying brat” to “potential victim.” This tends to work, at least until they age out of the game and (statistically) either get jobs or fall prey to Dundee’s prodigious drug scene.
On the question of weaponry, it bears repeating that it is illegal in Scotland to carry anything that even vaguely resembles a weapon for self-defense. For the Americans in the audience, this is not Texas. Not only is it illegal, it is also, in local context, not normal to walk around with an axe. While I actually find this arrangement not to my libertarian sensibilities, that's neither here nor there. My own priors, which seem to match those of most actual Scots I’ve spoken to, lean toward a more mundane explanation. The girl went out carrying because she wanted to impress her boyfriend, or at least to raise her standing among her peers. She might have been looking for trouble, or simply wanted to show off, and twelve is not too young to have social status games on your mind. Puberty isn’t the only thing that comes early in these parts.
I can only reiterate that an axe is not normal to carry, even if one feels threatened. A pocket knife? I can understand, sure. But this is about as 'extra' as taking a hand-grenade to a seedy pub when you're worried about being roofied.
As for the “migrant crime” angle, I want to point out that Scotland is not England, and certainly not Rotherham. The “migrant problem” is much less pronounced here. Outside Edinburgh or Glasgow, brown skin is still a curiosity, more likely to prompt a friendly question than suspicion. Most of the time, it’s just an excuse for conversation. Scotland has its own problems, but racialized sexual predation is not at the top of the list.
I would like to believe that this clarification settles things, but I am also not naïve. If your epistemic filter is tuned to maximum paranoia, then the absence of evidence is merely further evidence of a cover-up. For everyone else, the police statement, local skepticism, and sociological context should nudge your priors at least a little.
Of course, if you prefer your axes in the hands of twelve-year-olds fighting imaginary Bulgarian sex pests, I suppose nothing I write will convince you otherwise.
I'm calling it, this turned out to be an excellent Scissor Incident.
There is insufficient context to judge the situation or the participants, but taps into multiple underlying prejudices that audience has to impact the personal conclusions they reach. For some this is clearly a creepy brown migrant perving on vulnerable girls. For others, clearly a delinquent with illegal weapons harassing a relatively innocent bystander.
The arguing over whether carrying bladed weapons is 'normal', or at least understandable given the potential dangers, or actively a sign of a juvenile delinquent, the inability to truly ascertain the race of the guy filming, just going off the accent, the somewhat muddled story about what led to the incident. The various cultural cues that read different ways to different people.
The question that we definitely can't answer is what would have happened to this girl and her friends if she weren't armed, and the incident wasn't filmed. I personally doubt that this particular migrant was actually going to assault this particular girl, but yeah, the background information that girls like this have gotten raped by gangs of actual migrants sort of has to color this discussion.
Just, epistemic humility demands that you acknowledge the uncertainty and don't make bold statements of certainty when the reliable information is still very limited.
But even our generally rational forum has got people digging in on both sides, expressing high confidence in their assessment.
As far as I've gathered, the background information is that girls have been typically raped by gangs of migrants through gradually grooming them in, not jumping them on the street. I don't think carrying axes would've helped against that.
Yeah, but I'd accept "this girl heard the stories of migrant rape gangs and her response to the threat is to carry weapons around" as a feasible explanation.
Of course, if its an actual organized gang, the knife and axe won't ultimately protect her either.
Indeed, the gang putting its explicit stamp of approval on the migrant rape gangs- that being the British government- has tanks and fighter jets.
What will an axe or sword do against them?
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