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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   31214 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 9, 2023

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Fact check. All those people just wanted to get rich and we never invaded any of those countries.

https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-polandmalaysia-model

Honestly thought about doing a top-level posts. Polands economical miracle sums up this entire war. Russia offered their colonial possessions nothing and once every 50 years a famine. The West offered wealth. Maybe if Russia didn’t want colonies and offered economic development all these Slovak countries would want to be friends with them.

Mershemere meet Poland. Maybe he could study their economy and realize why no one wants to be friends with Russia.

The Russians built Ukraine's heavy industry in the Soviet period, it was a key industrial region of the USSR. It had a lot of power infrastructure, which is ironically making it harder for the Russians to destroy it, now that consumption is much less. Post breakup, Russia paid off all of Ukraine's share of Soviet debt and supplied cheap gas. The attached article makes the case that Russia supplying gas at below market rates limited Ukrainian economic modernization and encouraged corruption. Nevertheless, that could be said about all economic aid.

'Russia offered their colonial possessions nothing' is false. They made a generous offer in 2013, promising to bail out the indebted Ukrainian economy with bond purchases and lower gas prices. They were consistently supplying below market price gas back in the 2000s and 1990s, keeping Ukraine from complete economic collapse.

In 2008, the price paid by Ukraine for gas was still less than half of that paid by Western European countries.

The reason Ukraine didn't want to be friends with Russia is not because Russia was not willing to provide but because US-based, US-aligned NGOs like the Endowment for Democracy and Open Society Foundation were paying billions to politically influence the country directly, manipulating media, education and governance.

Isn’t Ukraine under Russia control at 1/3 the income of Poland joining the EU and at a slower growth pace? Like look at the data. And besides the fact Russia literally starved Ukraine.

The whole western whore analogy your trying to make makes no sense. Does Japan not have their own culture?

Ukraine under direct Russian control was doing fairly well. Their income only recovered to 1991 levels in 2006. Have a look at Russia. Would oh-so-corrupt and incompetent Russian governance really have hurt Ukraine that much?

Look at this data: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=UA-RU

It was a mistake to break up the Soviet Union completely, these countries were not supposed to be separate. Their economies were interlinked, there was no sound political basis for self-government in most of them. Ukraine inherited huge heavy industry that it didn't need, without the domestic energy to use it properly. I reckon that if you told Ukrainians in 1991 'if you elect for independence and freedom from hated Russia your economy will crater, won't even recover for 16 years, your country will depopulate, get brain-drained and go from rough parity with Russia to half their income' they would've thought again about independence.

And now they're looking at hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded because... why? So they can aspire towards reaching the level of income Russia already has in 15 or 20 years, provided they get EU membership at some later date? The above graph doesn't even count the war damage, which is going to be severe.

Does Japan not have their own culture?

Well they do but it was heavily manipulated by the US who rewrote their constitution. You know how they have this weird censorship of genitals in Japanese pornography? Like tiny lines that don't cover anything, even though the actual content can be rather more perverse than showing a penis. That's because of the tortured interplay between the US officially enforcing freedom of speech and pre-existing Japanese obscenity laws. Or to put it another way, can you spot any differences in Japanese culture between 1944 and 1954?

Yeah, yeah. Median monthly salary in Russia is around 400-500 USD

https://tass.com/economy/1301957

Just a little lower in Ukraine. Somehow this huge GDP and revenues from exporting raw materials didn't translate in passable living standards for people outside of several large cities.

According to World Population Review, Russia's median income is $5500 to Ukraine's $4400, which is a fairly substantial difference.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/median-income-by-country

Consider also that if it weren't for Russian aid and debt relief, Ukraine's situation pre-2014 would've been much worse. Cheap energy is good - nobody is saying that the fad of refusing to buy Russian gas imports is a great opportunity for Germany since they'll be able to 'reform their economy'.

Adjust it for the cost of living which will make the difference negligible (of course, the war made everything costlier, but Russia can make drop a few nukes on Ukraine to make life there completely miserable).

Consider also that if it weren't for Russian aid and debt relief, Ukraine's situation pre-2014 would've been much worse.

Russian "aid" enriched Ukrainian oligarchs, barely anything of it dripped down to the general population, and reliance on Russian gas made investment in domestic production unprofitable. People talking about Russia relieving Soviet debt apparently forget the fact that Russia got most of Soviet assets, but also a lot of countries had debts before Soviet Union — now they had to repay Russia.

Adjust it for the cost of living

It's already in PPP terms, cost of living is adjusted for.

Russian "aid" enriched Ukrainian oligarchs, barely anything of it dripped down to the general population, and reliance on Russian gas made investment in domestic production unprofitable.

During the early 2000s, Ukraine was using its large Soviet-era metallurgical industry, powered by cheap Russian gas, to export steel and grow fairly quickly. Workers do work in steel mills, there are benefits for the stability of the currency. That Ukrainian oligarchs were enriched during this process does not mean Russia/Soviets was evil for providing all these steel mills and cheap energy to run them.

People talking about Russia relieving Soviet debt apparently forget the fact that Russia got most of Soviet assets, but also a lot of countries had debts before Soviet Union — now they had to repay Russia.

That doesn't make any sense. What are you talking about, tsarist-era debt? Was Ukraine accruing much debt during its brief existence post-WW1? If Russia gets 75% of Soviet assets and Ukraine 15% but Russia pays all of Ukraine's share of Soviet debt, it follows that Ukraine comes out ahead.

It's already in PPP terms, cost of living is adjusted for.

OK, I didn't check your link. Anyway, I cannot speak for everyone, but this difference of 20% is pretty negligible in comparison to living in a country where I wouldn't be beaten by riot police if I'd decided to attend an anti-government demonstration. If you post on this forum, you supposedly value such freedoms (yes, yes, Ukraine is far from perfect when it comes to civil rights, but we are comparing Ukraine and Russia, not Ukraine and Denmark).

That Ukrainian oligarchs were enriched during this process does not mean Russia...

Russia was actively corrupting Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs through its gas, check RosUkrEnergo for example, they weren't just passive bearers of gifts like you want them to present here.

...Soviets was evil for providing all these steel mills

Stop this Soviet-built-Ukrainian-industry bullshit. Ukraine, for example, had a major role in developing Russian oil industry in Western Siberia during Soviet times.

That doesn't make any sense.

I phrased it poorly. Many countries like Cuba, Mozambique, India and such were major borrowers from USSR. They went on becoming borrowers from Russia, not Ukraine or any other post-Soviet state.

If Russia gets 75% of Soviet assets and Ukraine 15% but Russia pays all of Ukraine's share of Soviet debt

From a purely mathematical standpoint — not necessary. If the total assets, for example, were 250 bn USD, and the total debt was 25 bn USD, it would be beneficial for Russia to repay those 25 bn instead of Ukraine, in comparison to the scenario of Russian/Ukrainian split of 70%/20%, but Ukraine repaying all of its supposed share (5 bn in this example) themselves. Don't forget that Russia got all the nukes, most of the Black Sea fleet and all other Fleets, Soviet gold reserves, property abroad like embassies etc.

So why didn’t Russia maintain Ukraine then? USSR failed. Stick to reality. If you lose you lose. They lost and turning to genocide should not be an option when you lose economically.

Well they do but it was heavily manipulated by the US who rewrote their constitution. You know how they have this weird censorship of genitals in Japanese pornography? Like tiny lines that don't cover anything, even though the actual content can be rather more perverse than showing a penis. That's because of the tortured interplay between the US officially enforcing freedom of speech and pre-existing Japanese obscenity laws. Or to put it another way, can you spot any differences in Japanese culture between 1944 and 1954?

This still isn't quite the same thing as having no cultural agency. The Kerberos Saga is just one of what are certainly multiple internal assessments of WWII, the occupation, and their impact on Japan.

At no point did I say that Japan had no cultural agency. Where are people getting this idea from? However, Japan's culture was heavily manipulated and affected by the US. I don't know how anyone can argue with this, nor do I really think Japan has any relevance to my main point.

Ah, one of the most persistent tropes of Russian propaganda. "Stupid Ukrainians/Lithuanians/Estonians! We, Russians (or rather American engineers whom we invited), uplifted you, built your industries, infrastructure, and that's how you repaid us! Just look at those stoopid Finns who rejected our generous attempt to conquer them and build industries for them, and now all those northern ooga-boogas live in squalor"

US-aligned NGOs like the Endowment for Democracy and Open Society Foundation were paying billions to politically influence the country directly

When globohomo pays "billions" to supposedly brainwash Ukrainian population — it's bad. When Russians do it, corrupt politicians and put their agents everywhere (most of ministers, head of SBU etc. under Yanukovich were literally Russian citizens even before Maidan) — it's good. Got you.

keeping Ukraine from complete economic collapse

Please don't. Allow Ukraine to reform its economy and reorient toward other markets who don't try to ensure political compliance through economic means (enriching oligarchs of both countries in the process).

Well it's a persistent trope because it's literally true! The Russians did provide below-market rate gas and they did pay off Ukraine's share of Soviet debt. You can't deny that.

When globohomo pays "billions" to supposedly brainwash Ukrainian population — it's bad. When Russians do it, corrupt politicians and put their agents everywhere (most of ministers, head of SBU etc. under Yanukovich were literally Russian citizens even before Maidan) — it's good. Got you.

They admitted it themselves. Victoria Newland said the US invested $5 billion in Ukrainian democracy and civil society since 1991. If you want a citation, it was a remark at the US-Ukraine Conference, National press club, December 13, 2013. You're surely aware of the phone call where she literally discusses who will be minister in the new government. Clearly this investment was very effective, it obviously achieves better and cheaper results than Russia providing actual economic assistance in terms of acquiring influence.

Allow Ukraine to reform its economy and reorient toward other markets who don't try to ensure political compliance through economic means (enriching oligarchs of both countries in the process).

Firstly, I have no power to decide these issues. Secondly, if Ukraine wants to reform their economy that's their business - but receiving cheap energy is a boon not a curse. No Briton bemoans the copious reserves of coal they were bequeathed. Saudi Arabia is not weakened by its oil wealth. Sound management can prevent dutch disease and similar effects. Thirdly, how is 'promoting civil society and a good form of government' with billions of dollars not acquiring political compliance through economic means? The money still filters back through to those in high places - Hunter Biden didn't earn his sinecure from Burisma with his petrochemical knowledge.

Maybe if Russia didn’t want colonies and offered economic development all these Slovak countries would want to be friends with them.

All that shines isn't gold.

Would you be upset if Andrew Tate invited your sister to join him in his mansion and become rich by showing off her body?

Would you slap your sister if she told you she was considering it, because you don't treat her right and she needs some of that self-care mmmh mmmh?

Would you slap your sister if she told you she was considering it, because you don't treat her right and she needs some of that self-care mmmh mmmh?

No, because slapping is a poor way to persuade people.

Also, if that would happen then thing went horrifying wrong before and I prefer actions taking far earlier.

It works in Afghanistan.

You are making a big assumption that the west doesn’t treat people well.

But sure she can stay with him if she’s not a prostitute and she flirts with rich guys looking for a wife.

Oblivion awaits the childless, godless West.

But sure she can stay with him if she’s not a prostitute and she flirts with rich guys looking for a wife.

Absolutely haram.

Let’s stick within real arguments here instead of if you disagree with me your sisters a prostitute. I think that’s a reasonable standard

I'm trying and I can't understand what you're all arguing about? There are three actors in this game. It is true that Poland joined NATO, as the prospect of access to the closed EU market and subsidies from Germany, France and the UK is very tasty. It is true that the US is interested in expanding its sphere of influence. And it is true that for Russia, the expansion of NATO and the EU is a loss of market access and unacceptable security threats.

That is, Poland has reasons to join NATO/EU, the US has reasons to increase its influence, Russia has reasons to perceive expansion as aggression.

All of these things can be true at the same time. Right?

Russia has reasons to perceive expansion as aggression

I reject this part.

Though it would be accurate to treat it as a threat on Russian imperialism and pre-empting USSR 2.0. That is exactly why Poland and other joined NATO and Ukraine wanted to join.

Russia is not entitled to having an imperial sphere of influence.

I reject this part.

First, the presence of nuclear weapons does not guarantee security in the medium term. Especially when your opponent has much more financial and human resources. Secondly, the loss of buffer states creates huge opportunities for proxy wars. Starting from attempts to arm the non-systemic opposition, ending with the Ichkerian separatists.

Isn't that enough reason?

Secondly, the loss of buffer states creates huge opportunities for proxy wars.

It seems to me that starting proxy war against NATO is a poor way to avoid proxy wars against NATO.

Ukraine was never a military threat to a nuclear armed country so security is false but loss of culture/economic control is true.

And there is the fourth actor Ukraine whose opinions should matter the most.

There seems to be discussed the expansion of NATO in general. In the case of Ukraine, I would replace Poland with Ukraine and not much would change. (Although the armed coup and the right of the population to self-determination make this case more difficult).

And the threat to Russia is not Ukraine, it is the United States and NATO, of course.

NATO is not militarily invading a nuclear armed power. Not worth it. Russia would be ignored like N Korea.

How do you have such confidence, and how do you have confidence that at some time the US will not invade North Korea?

Anything is possible of course. But why would we want every major city in the world vaporized?

I wrote about it in the thread above.

An invasion either requires an improved missile defense system to reliably intercept intercontinental missiles, or can be carried out using a proxy.

And Russia can counter that. America has open borders. All they would have to do is announce they’ve smuggled nuclear bombs thru the Mexican border and have them placed in a few high casualty areas. That would defeat basically any proxy moves or missile defense by NATO.

Your argument is akin to saying my neighbor looked at me wrong and I feared that one day in the future he would kill me - so I shot him first, that doesn’t stand in criminal defense. Any country can claim that some day in the future their neighbor will invade them as justification for war. That is widely rejected today.

Now I do agree that the EU will conquor Russia (notice I didn’t say NATO). Culturally the EU is more vibrant and economically far richer which on a decent time frame will lead to what they call in Civilization (the video game) a cultural victory.

Polands economical miracle

this sounds a bit funny for Pole given that we are word-class at complaining and doomposting :)

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