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An AI facial recognition model trawled through 1.5 million mugshots and determined that the Hispanic crime rate is underestimated by 30%
The Hispanic crime rate has been discussed in the context of the immigration debate. I recall that the relatively insignificant difference between the White and Hispanic rate has been used as an argument in favor of migration from Hispanic countries. The math changes if the Hispanic crime rate is 30% higher than previously believed, and the White rate ~6% lower than believed.
Additionally, the analysis above needs to be supplemented with an analysis of the crime clearance rate. Not every crime is solved, meaning that not every crime is logged. If the Hispanic clearance rate is lower than the White clearance rate, due to myriad factors like documentation issues and hesitancy to work with police, then this must be factored into the crime rate too. Indeed, there is a substantial 19% difference of clearance between murders where the victim is Hispanic and murders where the victim is White, with more “Hispanic victim” murders going unsolved. What to do with this information is a little bit tricky. Most homicides are within-race and gang homicides are especially likely to go unsolved. So it’s reasonable to assume that nearly all of the 19% difference in homicide clearance are homicides committed by an Hispanic offender (we can only tell the race of the victim here). This is somewhat complicated by the possibility that unsolved white victim homicides may be more likely to have an Hispanic offender than the solved homicide rate, but figuring that out is annoying.
Putting this all together: the Hispanic crime rate is likely 50% higher than expressed in the official and common crime data. This weakens the argument that Hispanic migration would be a net economic positive, given the high cost of crime via secondary / tertiary effects.
It would be interesting to find out what proportion of these murders were committed by first-generation migrants.
After the last few high profile violent crimes committed in the UK, there has been a curious rush to publicize that the offender was a second or third generation immigrant, usually a British citizen. This is apparently motivated from a desire to push back against anti-migrant sentiment: "See! He grew up in the UK. He wasn't an immigrant! You can't hold this terrible event against immigrants". It's one of those cases when the mainstream left demonstrates a complete failure to comprehend what their opposition actually believes and why.
It would be kind of like someone trying to publicize an instance of police brutality as proof of how bad black communities are: "Look! This is how brutal you have to deal with these people! This proves how irredeemably uncivilized they are". Of course, there are no doubt some people who actually do think like this, but even they would never try to use this argument against a left-winger because they understand how it would be interpreted in practically the opposite way.
I suppose the argument makes a certain amount of sense if you're operating from a tabula rasa, nurture-over-nature perspective. If we're all blank slates with no predisposition towards violence or criminality, it stands to reason that any crime committed by a person raised in Britain logically points to a deficiency in British culture.
What I find frustrating is that very few woke or progressive people actually believe that we're all blank slates who are entirely the product of our social environments, a view which obviously contradicts the claim that sexuality is innate and that everyone has an innate "gender identity" knowable only to themselves.
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They do it because it probably still works on the normies. I sometimes read the newspapers while waiting for takeout, and even the local right-wing rag had a piece on Lucy Connolly finally leaving prison. ICYMI, Lucy had the book thrown at her for writing and deleting an intemperate tweet in response to (I think) Axel Rudakubana's murder spree. The article studiously noted his country of birth and his British citizenship, while being noticeably silent about his ethnicity.
I was once told that it was the second- and third-generation children of migrants that are at greatest risk of radicalization. They form an idealized version of their home country because they didn't experience the things that made their parents or grandparents leave, and they don't yet fit in. When I was younger, I would sagely nod along and say "yes, yes, this is why we must provide more community resources to prevent radicalization" or whatever. Now I'm just baffled as to why, knowing this, we're still attempting to import infinity people.
1/ Blind faith in the belief that more immigration = economic growth (see the Boriswave)
2/ Any attempt to do something about it being frustrated by the NGO/Civil service/Human Rights Lawyer complex (see Rwanda)
3/ Any attempt to do something about it leading the people involved to be condemned as racist pariahs in the eyes of the rest of elite society
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Strangely the government recently committed itself to immediately publishing the criminal’s actual race in major cases. Why they thought this would be in their interest is anyone’s guess.
In the UK? Good on them. I'm no fan of Labour but I'm quite happy to recognise when they're doing the right thing, and tbf even Two-Tier Kier seems to have looked in his crystal ball and seen that the current strategy leads nowhere good.
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Depending on who "they" is. If it was your job to report on crime and there was a group of people who would hound you if you included the race when it was embarrassing to racial minorities and another group that would hound you if you excluded the race when it was embarrassing to racial minorities then removing your discretion is a strict improvement to your wellbeing.
True, but this was an act by the Labour government. The reason reason is that it was recommended in a report about the riots last summer that suggested that if the public had been immediately informed it was a British citizen of African descent and not a small boat refugee (as had been alleged in some early TikTok posts) then the riots wouldn’t have happened. I’m not sure that logic is sound but it did lead to the new ‘presumption’ that suspect race is now reported immediately in high profile cases.
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Yeah. I'm similarly baffled when I see people mentioning that the perpetrator of the latest mass stabbing incident was a British (or in one case, Irish) citizen (by which they mean someone who secured citizenship as an adult), like they're laying down a trump card.
So you mean our processes for immigration and naturalisation are so lacking that they can completely fail to identify and weed out a deranged knife-wielding lunatic (never mind a garden-variety rapist or thief)? Way to tell on yourself.
If they're second or third generation, the immigration/naturalization process can't have weeded them out (at least not directly).
No, it's not the same thing. But it's the same kind of weird deflection. What makes you think the most effective means of combatting anti-immigration sentiment is to point out that the perpetrator of a horrific violent crime was a legal immigrant? That's even worse than if it was committed by a refugee or asylum seeker!
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