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The United States of America is now at war with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Dozens of Venezuelan military targets have been bombed in the last few minutes, including a major army base just outside the capital. American Chinooks have been seen flying across the Caracas skyline.
This could be the most important geopolitical happening since the Ukraine War. We do it yet know if this will be a limited run of bombing like the Kosovo strikes, or a full on Iraq style invasion and regime change. If it is the latter, it will be an important test of America’s military might, and failure could very well be America’s Suez moment. I have speculated here several times that I thought the US would have difficulty conducting a thunder run of a non-peer or near-peer adversary in its current state, and it looks as though my theory may be put to the test. On a geopolitical and moral level though, I have little sympathy for Venezuela, for the same reason I have little sympathy for Ukraine. If you repeatedly antagonize your neighboring superpower, you get what you get.
This will also no doubt further fracture the Republican base in a major way, as interventionist neocons clash with America-First isolationists.
This is also adds to an intensifying pattern of conflict in multiple theaters that could lead to global war. It also increases the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan as American asserts are entangled in multiple theaters.
I will post more information as I hear it.
A true gentleman scholar post “inb4 source” and is vindicated in the light of history.
Edit:
There are now multiple airstrikes occurring within Caracas. The United States FAA has issued a NOTAM warning that civilian aircraft should avoid overflying the entire territory of Venezuela.
Reuters is now reporting that there are US ground troops active within the capital of Venezuela.
I wake up and this is really starting the new year with a bang! I have to say I am very surprised, first by the strikes on land targets and second the claim that Maduro and his wife are in custody of the USA.
What does anybody think is going on here? How did it go from "stop drug smuggling" to "regime overthrow"?
Oil. Venezuela has lots of oil, so they got a big dose of freedom. With a US-friendly government in charge, excraction costs will fall, enabling the high-tech petroleum refineries on the US Gulf Coast (which are helpfully in red states) to reap the producer surplus from the increased supply. AI demand for energy will keep the price up. GPT-7 will be powered by Venezuelan oil, brought to you by Exxon, I'm Lovin' It.
Venezuela's oil is ultra-heavy crude that currently (because Communism) requires them to import naphtha just to ship to somewhere it can be refined. The US has no pressing need for it. Assuming there's a stable government out of this rather than a civil war, US oil companies will improve their infrastructure enough (including their own refining capacity, at least enough that they can produce enough naphtha to ship the rest without imports) that they'll be making a lot more money from the oil, which will help the US companies some but the Venezuelans more. The oil is just a cherry on top, not a reason.
Is Venezuela even remotely communist? Do the workers own the means of production/their firms?
It looks a lot more like an autocratic narco state
Sure. Socialism is generally recognized as 'remotely close' to communist, and the Venezuelan government under the PSUV was for about a decade across the 2000s was widely praised as socialist success by other self-identified socialist and communist individuals, parties, and in some cases governments around the world, even as Venezuela's own leaders proudly claimed their own socialist credentials, albeit through the Chavismo mixture of socialism.
Now, the classic motte and bailey is that true communism has never been tried and all the self-identified communists who were recognized as communists at the time really just tried to implement variations of socialism. Or the no true communist fallacy that, in hindsight, they were just right-wing autocrats who betrayed true communist/socialist principles.
Most communist and ideologically socialist states look like autocratic states because they are. Their specific funding source may differ- Venezuela's was and still is oil- but the devolution into criminal states because corruption becomes a requirement to handle the economic disfunction is pretty par for course.
I will happily admit I know very little of Venezuela. Everything I've read about it's governance in this thread sounds more like "dictatorship loots country for its seed corn, country spirals into poverty" moreso than "they legitimately tried to ensure the workers owned the means of production/captured more of the surplus of their labour and then it fells apart for X reason"
I also imagine I probably have a somewhat simplified model of communism in my head, I don't have a deep dialectic understanding of Marx et al, that's for sure.
This rings pretty true to me? Most communist nations may have called themselves communist, but again kind of just did the whole "dictatorship loots country for its seed corn" thing.
I'm not entirely sure how that's a fallacy. I think I'd pre-emptively reconcile it by saying I'm pretty confident communism is an optimistic idea that simply doesn't work when paired with human nature, as we keep seeing when communist countries end up being autocratic shitholes where the workers are just as fucked as they were previously.
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