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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2873 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 18, 2026

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Have any of you thought about moving spending forwards vs saving for retirement with seemingly numerous multiple crises coming down the pike in the next few decades?

Thinking: AI Global fertility Global debt (insert other left or right-coded flavored crises here as desired).

Just seems like my desire to put away money for 35 years from now versus making memories with family and friends now has started to decline.

I guess option 1 would be just to cut 401k contributions down to the match level instead of maxing? I've had trouble saying no to the immediate tax benefits, but seems like the move.

Would love cash out refi if interest rates were lower, but not looking to add several hundred beeps to my mortgage.

If AI happens, then then Mag 7 and S&P 500 will go to the moon. Keep money in stock market, and mint $$. China may rise and the rest of the US economy may suffer. But, tech companies will do well.

If AI fails and not much else happens, then world won't change. US hegemony will continue, 401ks will continue to be useful. If you are are worried about 401ks, then move them to RothIRAs. Pay tax now. But institutions won't collapse. If AI doesn't happen then China's population pyramid will doom them in 30-40 years. Assuming Trump doesn't single handedly destroy Pax-Americana, the US should be able to weather the Chinese onslaught.

US population pyramid stays well above where Japan is today till at least 2100. So, at worst, fertility collapse will look like 2025 Japan. Pretty good if you ask me.

making memories with family and friends now

Always a good idea. I regret not spending time with my grandad when he was lucid. I will likely regret not spending enough time with mom and dad when their health starts suffering. I am making more than my parents or I ever thought I'd make, and yet I am more stressed than ever. Money has no brought me happiness. The people around me have.

AI Global fertility Global debt

None of it would be world-changing in 30 years. I mean, yes, the world will change, a lot, but not in a way that makes current wisdom irrelevant. Internet changed everything, and yet saving now is as relevant as it was before the internet. If you started saving before the internet, you can enjoy it now, with the internet, no less. If AI proves as world-changing as internet was - which is not a given but let's assume it will be all that and twice all that - I am still sure fundamentals would not change. I mean, there could be some life-changing things that could be very valuable - like, I knew about bitcoin's existence extremely early and if I invested in it seriously, I probably could retire and be a rich man now. I did not. But somebody probably did. Somebody would invest in something AI-related and become fabulously rich in 30 years too (probably not me again). But for the rest of us, it'll be the same but with AI.

As for saving vs making memories - it's much more complex question. I admit I have no idea what's the answer for me. My thinking shifted a bit after COVID when I realized how fragile is everything we're enjoying and how easily it could be destroyed - not by something big and glorious, but just by a bunch of panicked idiots that find themselves in an unknown situation and start thrashing around. So now I am more on the side of "making memories" but still in a pretty conservative stance overall. But I can't guarantee some shit like COVID won't happen again and that time the breakage would be personally ruinous for me. I feel this is much more realistic threat scenario than "global debt".

Not in a principled way. I got a real adult job and a house because of the children, otherwise I would be working a more chill job, traveling more, and still not saving very much.

Just seems like my desire to put away money for 35 years from now versus making memories with family and friends now has started to decline.

I think to answer this question would require significantly more information regarding what the concrete choices you are thinking about are.

My life is set up in such a way that there is very little that I would spend significantly more money on were I spending freely or if I came into a windfall. Like Hercule Poirot, I have enough money for both my needs and my caprices. I don't particularly want anything I can't afford, the odd luxury goods that I theoretically could purchase vaguely disgust me as too extravagant anyway. I have trouble identifying a marginal "live for today" spend I would make if I valued today higher than 30 years from now. If anything I could imagine putting in less time on earning money, but I like my work and wouldn't reduce it given the option.

So like, what are we talking about here? Flying out to visit family more? Going on a vacation? Buying a boat? I don't think the decision is meaningful in the abstract, only in concrete details.

fair - the immediate concrete decision is how much to spend on finishing our basement (ie adding extra fun features) and how much to go on extra nice vacations the next few years (think ski trips with lessons to teach our kids).

Just staring at high 6 figure retirement account balances and wondering if I should be rethinking my allocation of present to future a bit more (early 30s, for reference)

tagging other repliers for visibility: @birb_cromble, @TowardsPanna, @Mihow, @stolen_brawnze

I’m a similar age with a similar balance. About a year ago, I had a similar realization to you— my future is extremely secure and maximizing my expected lifetime satisfaction would likely involve hedging against risks against my ability to enjoy it over the next 50 years. Societal collapse, health issues, AI, whatever.

I invested a lot in my health. I got myself a much nicer place and have hosted fun dinners and parties for friends at no cost to them. I got a very nice used car (high 5-figs) about a year ago and have enjoyed every minute of driving it. I’ll probably sell it in a few years at a slight profit. I have lightweight prep (food, water, ammo). My accounts continue to grow rapidly. I have no regrets.

I'd recommend running a Monte Carlo or historical simulation based on your current holdings and see how they hold up. Here's one I've used in the past: https://firecalc.com/

If you could stop contributing today and still have a solid retirement even in great depression-era returns due the power of compounding, you're probably good to renovate a basement.

It sure sounds like you're doing better than I was at that age, so I think you might be pleasantly surprised.

Yea you’re doing great man - just keep going and stop thinking imo.

Thinking just spoils things … you won, enjoy!

Unless! - early retirement? Then the equation starts churning. If you can retire at 50 instead of 60 by going on one less big trip a year and 1-2 less getaways here and there and 2-3 less big dinners (or whatever your equivalent is here) then so long as you’re still doing these things to a lesser degree you go ahead and focus more on the then.

But that doesn’t sound like your goal.

And I’d say enjoy the present - at 85 you’ll enjoy staying home more.

Yeah I think I'm more the reverse haha - looking for ways to push retirement back further to have more money to spend on the present. And just trying to decide if it's worth unwinding prior investments at all to do so.

You're in very good shape. Sounds like you should focus a bit more on the present.

You sound like you're doing well. If you needed permission to finish the basement and go on vacations with your family, consider it granted.

Not really. It will be more important than ever to have capital and to be able to move to a liveable place if necessary.

I'm not living like a 100% Spartan at current though. You gotta have some balance because after all you might be dead from illness or sudden accident in five or ten years' time.

I'm not increasing my 401(k) contribution this year, but that's as far as I'm going. I'm already well past my employer match, and it seems to me that lowering my reported pre tax income by 1% is not quite as useful as putting that 1% in something like VTI in a brokerage account.

My case might be a little peculiar though. I am pretty sure I already have enough in my 401(k) and Roth IRA to retire at 62-65 if I don't have to do any early withdrawals, even if I don't contribute more. At this point it's mostly about building up sufficient reserves so that "early retirement" is an option if I get laid off in the future.

(I did increase my HSA contribution a little)

No not at all.

With my 401k + SS (which will be there) I should make do with about 70k a year from 65-85 - fiancé will be somewhere in the 55-60k range with a Roth. Plus a few other index funds here and there, maybe, with hopefully al almost paid off home … and maybe some slight inheritance from somewhere but I have my doubts.

I wish I were this excited ten years ago - if not 20 lol.

Everything has been and always will be bad - and the horizon is always bad and always will be. But that’s just the way it is - people keep living.

But also - we go on 1 larger and 1 smaller vacation a year and 2-3 small weekend things and there’s two teenage boys in the house and I make 65 and she makes 50 and we pay 2800 a month for rent because America is a joke.

I think the future is bright - just gotta stay healthy.

I don't quite understand the logic. You want to be dependent on your employer during the coming crises?

All extra cash in my household--all cash that survives my wife's Amazon purchases--goes into aggressively paying down our mortgage (6.5% rate) and VTI. I use the margin provided by the VTI holdings to sell options on other companies for more cash.

beeps

That's a new one for me, ha. (I'm assuming this refers to basis points).

I was with you on aggressively paying down the mortgage (I’m at 6.25%), but looking at the increases in the stock market, foreign markets, and precious metals over the past year, I’m beginning to rethink my strategy.

Valid. I go 50/50 mortgage and investing when we have the money. I know it's optimal to put it all in investing, but I would so love to be rid of the mortgage.

correct, basis points

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