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Im curious what peoples predictions for the coming demographic decline is for the US and other countries? Here is mine: An increase in healthcare related work, and a stagnation of other job sectors. Apparently, excluding healthcare, the amount of jobs in the US is on the decline or stagnating. Not such a fun job market, especially for someone like myself you falls in the "information" category. This will probably continue as the population declines and ages.
Its fascinating, because many people in the gen-z bracket were told to got to college, get a degree, and you'd have a nice cushy office job lined up. While this wasnt all the way bullshit, as i do actually have one of these jobs - as someone who is competing in the current job market, it is BRUTAL. I've had applied to a around ~ 50 jobs (All of these jobs that are at least close to my skill level & credentials, i live in florida for reference and its not the best market for tech to begin with, even though the tech sector is growing here according to the data). In total ive gotten about 3-4 call backs 2 - 3 interview. One were i made it to the final round after 3, and was rejected. Ghosted in another, and have one up and coming.
For more perspective here is my resume (& yes, im aware of the slight formatting error in the projects section). Multiple internships, degrees, & certificates, im trying my best to be competitive. More than one person in my friend group is happy to hear about this population decline; the job search is just so tough for them cant say id blame them, but what many dont understand about declining populations is that population both creates and takes jobs simultaneously. Sure if the population declines, you might have less competition, but you'd also have fewer openings as well. Hard to get hired when a lot of people are not around to create the job you'd be working to start with. The whole demographic decline is good because there will be less people to compete with strikes me as a shortsighted perspective - Humans make the wheels turn all the way down and less people being around isnt gonna create more opportunities for us as a whole.
Still, i can't help but empathize with the sentiment. Constantly apply to every job listing, going through multiple round interview, just to get rejected is so incredibly brutal. Many countries outside the US like china and italy have it even worse with high youth unemployment. It certainly doesnt feel like having more people would be a good from that perspective, even if it likely would. Aging populations mean that a lot of our future jobs and productivity is gonna be directed toward the health sector of our economies, inevitably taking away from or slowing growth from other sectors. I envy people who already have a strong career with high pay and benefits, its insanely difficult for the rest of us.
This sounds like ‘there are more people trying to get cushy well paying jobs that don't entail being ordered around all that much than there are such jobs to go around’, which is a historical constant that has of late had some exceptions to it, either driven by bubbles on new technology or low interest rates or in affirmative action meaning your company had to have a pet black woman vp or whatever. The vast majority of people will always be worker bees, and a stratum that can’t adapt to that is doomed over the long run.
I agree with the thrust here, but speaking as a Millennial that also bought into the whole 'go to college or you'll be flipping burgers' shtick, I think the real implication was just a bit more than about having money and a 'cushy' job, but also:
A) Having 'proved' yourself by obtaining a degree (especially if your job was related to your major) was 'supposed' to entitle you to some extra dignity and respect right off the bat.
B) Likewise it was supposed to 'open up doors' to areas you'd otherwise either never be allowed into, or that you'd have to grind for years and years to open otherwise. Not quite a 'VIP access' ticket, but definitely a 'priority boarding' pass, if you will.
In my case, B) was literally true because I had to bypass the "undergrad degree" gate to access the "law degree" gate and then the "bar license" gate.
But what 'we' found was that no, you're basically treated as a lowly intern to start, your pay might be a little better than if you lacked the degree, but it afforded you almost no actual respect and, in all probability, you'd have more respect if you'd been working that job 4 years rather than studying in that time.
(Yes, it makes perfect sense that a 4 year veteran should outrank the new recruit, but that was emphatically not how things were sold)
We also found that the 'doors' were actually opened by knowing the right people, which was a function of going to the right school for meeting those people, and almost completely orthogonal to the degree itself. We tried waving around impressive GPAs and extracurriculars and finding that we were still locked out unless we knew the secret handshakes, or had a ton of money to grease palms with.
So in this sense, think of how college was sold as an almost pure status boost. "You're a smart guy, you could jump into the workplace and eventually find yourself in a prestigious position, well-compensated and respected. But hey, if your SATs are high enough you can take a small detour to acquire a piece of paper that certifies you're a smart guy, and jump ahead to having some extra clout without the long climb from the bottom."
Shades of Elite Overproduction, but more about trying to skip the perceived 'minimum wage, maximum stress' grind that most young people have to overcome.
Its a very tempting deal on its face.
In what field would you be able to go in as a newbie either with or without a degree? Obviously not law, where you need an advanced degree just to get in. In a blue-collar trade you might have more respect after working for four years without a degree than you would in a white collar profession as a newbie with a degree, but that's comparing apples to oranges. In retail I think the most common thing is you work at the bottom forever, but if you're the ambitious type you could move up in four years -- but you're going to quickly hit a ceiling without the degree. The major chains seem to maintain a sort of "staff/line" distinction and while you can move from "staff" to "line", you need to get a degree.
Except as you pointed out, this isn't how it was sold. It was 'go to college or you'll be flipping burgers'. The "detour" doesn't so much jump you ahead as put you on a different ladder.
Fields that don't require a degree and where universities purport to teach you how to perform those jobs at a competent level through lengthy instruction.
(Catch-22 in that once college degrees became more common, more fields started 'requiring' them.)
Journalism, Political Science, Marketing, HR, Education, International Relations (LOL), certain art major/Graphic Design areas, arguably Accounting, Criminal Justice (as prep for law enforcement), even Information Technology.
A lot of stuff outside of the STEM/Law fields, basically. Jobs you are absolutely allowed to learn as you go, that aren't blue collar, but still have a long 'grind' period where you're paid poorly and worked doggedly, and most people would LOVE to just hop into the more lucrative, prestigious positions as soon as possible.
I'm saying it was both. The "burger flipping" was the stick, but the carrot, the actual reason you could justify taking on five or six figures in debt is to shortcut the miserable process and prove competence for roles you'd be unable to access otherwise.
I'm NOT claiming that this promise was ever made explicit by the colleges themselves, although their advertising certainly nodded suggestively in that direction.
My impression is that this process has slowed down because there are few fields remaining that could require a college degree but don't. (Which hasn't stopped especially crazy new requirements, like daycare workers needing a degree)
Yeah, I'm just pointing out that there were a LOT of jobs that Boomers could walk into with merely a high school diploma and learn as they go, that NOW are very clearly gated by the degree requirement, OR knowing a guy.
Here's a REALLY interesting bit from Mr. Carl Bernstein's wiki page:
Guy FAILED OUT of college, but had already acquired Journalism experience at the ripe age of 16, so just kept hopping into Journo jobs until he became one of the best known Journos ever.
This sort of story is profoundly radicalizing for a certain class of Millennial and, likely, Gen Zer, who considers failing out of college to be economic doom.
I'm a (early) millenial. I failed out of college. I got into a decent career in IT ops despite it, including working at some pretty prestigious places. I didn't know a guy, at least not initially. Networking (the socializing kind, not the technical kind) is what got me my bigger breaks.
At the risk of sounding like a boomer, I still think my path would work out. Find a niche that underserved (in my case, it was secretarial support), and then learn how to do the socializing. Young people nowadays seem to expect life to be like train tracks, that it's systems that are keeping them out, that if they do the right thing the wheels will pop on top of the rails and everything will get into place. But ultimately it's all people that you need to convince. Personally, when I interview people, I don't care about education or credentials; everything I need to know, I'll figure out by talking to you.
Yeah, I've actually got a decent amount of IT experience despite no formal college training in it, funny enough.
It was my 'fallback' career option if Law didn't work out (which was a close thing for a bit).
I think that's still one of the few places where if you're bright and you grew up working with computers and networks and troubleshooting people's electronic devices (a rarer thing among young kids) you can probably get picked up by a small outfit and put to work.
It looks like Geek Squad will still accept applicants sans a college degree, so that's something.
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