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Not sure about Canada, I asked aislop and it says that basically the Liberals run Canada, forever, except for that one time that a liberal spoiler party joined the election and spoiled it for the Liberals. It also seems like a standard case of "Conservatives conserve nothing" just like in the UK. Why should anyone bother voting Conservative if it just means tax cuts and infinity immigrants?
Anyways it seems like the era of third parties and spoilers may be coming to a close, so we may see Canada simply become a one-party two-bit petrostate.
The Conservatives were in the Labour position: certain to win, so they decided to shut the fuck about anything controversial to avoid being tarred (as your AI says the Liberals are the natural governing party, the media is very favorable to them, every single conservative leader is prima facie suspicious and a possible Trumpite/American wedge to them). Whether they're leaving a highly motivated immigration voting bloc on the table or were right to avoid pissing off Boomers who don't want to be like America I don't know. But I think the latter fear is very reasonable.
But it isn't a Tory situation where people seem to actively want to punish them. Trudeau's handling of the immigration system was so over the top that even hardcore immigration restrictionists would likely welcome a turn back to Harper's already large numbers. And because they knew that, the CPC did nothing. Fuck were they going to do, vote PPC? Okay, maybe it isn't the late Tory situation.
The minute Trudeau dropped out though, the immigration argument stopped making itself and the CPC didn't want to touch it. PP's abrasive personality was also no longer a plus when it seemed like Trump was the only person it didn't apply to. But, then again, he wasn't in office and couldn't pull any stunts (like Doug Ford, another person you could consider an asshole at times who directed that at the US and scored some points, despite having to pull back on some of his stunts).
Beyond Carney's already noted talents, he is good at another thing and it's not doing anything radical while being seen to do stuff. Immigration has come down, especially temporary workers, but then there's also going to be a one-time speedup in PR for protected persons of about 100,000 (and he's assuming that the temporary workers let in by Trudeau will all just leave). Then the method of calculating the budget changed to split the operating budget and investment, which theoretically makes sense except Carney is in control of this distinction which has obvious consequences (like a supposedly balanced budget with a massive deficit)
On top of all of the right noises on interprovincial trade barriers and pipelines, I can see not only why he's popular but gaining defectors. If he's going to hang around for 5 years you might as well go to the popular party that can do something.
A petrostate with a loud minority of people who loathe building infrastructure to support and sell oil.
I mean petroleum producing parts of Canada will eventually secede and the country will collapse. One party Canada won't last forever.
Them and what army?
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This is because, from the only politically relevant perspective in Canada (Easterners), they are foreigners.
I can't really overstate that enough. Western Canada is a foreign country to them, and that means their political parties are foreign too- CPC and NDP both. The NDP collapsed because it was indistinguishable from the LPC (and is why its only seats are out in the West).
You never vote for a foreigner in a crisis, Trump is the Worst Thing Ever to the Eastern Boomers, QED.
This isn't that complicated, unless you're of the opinion that Canada is a political monolith (which polls tend to do, for reasons that at least rhyme with manufacturing consensus).
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That's why they lost the last 2 elections. This is why PP continues to have that mandate, by the way- at least he's saying Reform things this time rather than "but we should bend over backwards for whatever Karen of Toronto wants". You can't win that way, you see.
The NDP was the other counterbalance for reform, but they're arch-Conservatives now, which is why they're so indistinguishable from the LPC that most of their MPs are LPC now.
If the petrostate part of the petrostate isn't smart [or powerful] enough to prevent that, and content with losing elections for ever, then it will be so.
If that happens, you might end up with a legitimate secessionist movement (assuming the stink from Trump wears off).
It's treated as absurd, as if QC has the exclusive right to agitate so, but we'll see.
It's kind of already here. It doesn't have as much support in the cities (NDP voters [progressives] are 95-5 against, UCP voters [traditionalist-liberals] are 60-40 for, UCP is majority party) but it's clear to every Westerner (and Easterner, for that matter) under 40 that they'll never be permitted to win an election in this country- outside of one 4-year period they never have.
QC is different because they don't actually need to hold the executive to get what they want.
AB, by contrast, has to hold the executive; if it doesn't the Easterners just team up to block everything. Older AB residents are probably made happier by the Carney regime's recent overtures about more development... but those aren't really his policies, and even the CPC voted for those bills. I don't think it's as reliable a signal of "well they're going to vote LPC at the first opportunity", this is the bare minimum that the LPC believes has to happen for the country not to splinter.
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Conservatives were set to win in a landslide, with Liberals possibly even losing Party status, until Trump awoke the Sleeping Lion of Canadian Politics: "Not being America".
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