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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   10411 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026

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Their most obvious path (diplomatic / ‘peaceful’ / semi-peaceful unification aside) is a blitz campaign (with or without attacks on US bases in the region) followed by a quick deal with whoever survives in the leadership. The options for them at that point are “make a deal with Xi” or “call in the yankees and turn my country into a wasteland and die along with hundreds of thousands of civilians and my family and friends”, and they will pick the former.

I am begging you to think through the implications of "Operation Epic Fury has failed" (as you posit) for China if their most obvious path to seizing Taiwan is "Operation Epic Fury With Chinese Characteristics."

What makes you think that it failing in Iran isn’t due to specific characteristics of Iran rather than some universal strategic truth?

Let me give you an example: if Trump bombs Belgium heavily tomorrow demanding some political arrangement, they would surrender by midnight; the political leadership don’t want to fight and won’t, they would rather be ruled by America than die. Maduro’s party preferred making a deal with America to dying. The Iranians don’t.

Taiwan is neither Venezuela nor Belgium nor Iran, but its political leadership is closer - when it comes to ideological position on this - to the former than the latter. If the Islamic Revolution is overthrown then the IRGC are penniless and prosecuted at best and hunted and slaughtered at worst, probably the latter. If the Taiwanese elite accept Chinese rule relatively quickly…they get to go back to being rich in Taipei, or at worst exile themselves to America if they love democracy.

If Iran was ruled by people with the character and belief system of EU bureaucrats they would have surrendered on the day, shaking their heads.

Maduro’s party preferred making a deal with America to dying.

Has Delcy actually done anything that benefits America and goes against their interests? So far it seems like sanctions shuffling or limited sanctions relief with oil being redirected to US refineries. I'm not plugged into what the flow of drugs looks like at a statistical level, but it sure doesn't feel like there are fewer drugs around.

If Iran was ruled by people with the character and belief system of EU bureaucrats they would have surrendered on the day, shaking their heads.

Has this ever come true? The same was said about Ukraine wasn't it, that surely they would surrender their fake bullshit country? I don't know what country has ever actually surrendered under bombardment without even a threat of ground invasion.

I don't know what country has ever actually surrendered under bombardment without even a threat of ground invasion.

WW2 Japan surrendered with only threat of ground invasion (declaration of war from USSR) but no actual ground invasion happened on it's mainland, both atomic bombings had been cited as part of the reasons for surrender

Japan notably was still invaded on the ground in WW2. See the Battle of Okinawa which was the bloodiest battle of the pacifiic war. ”Mainland” makes rather less of a difference when the entire nation consists of islands.

”Mainland” makes rather less of a difference when the entire nation consists of islands.

Okinawa is still ~400 miles away from the nearest Japanese home islands. And the early 20th century Japanese don’t exactly see Ryukyuan as their own people while someone from Nagasaki obviously is. Invading the home islands certainly is different from invading Okinawa.

Nonetheless the Japanese fought tooth and nail and the Allies had to spend significant troops to win ground (with 12k killed and 40k wounded) and couldn’t simply bomb Japan to submission. Mainland or not made no difference to that.

Do you see US being willing to deal with even a fraction of that number in Iran? I sure don’t.

I’m not debating that. I agree with you. And I’m taking notes on those who think bombing Iran would make them surrender. I plan to have a good laugh rereading those comments if they don’t age well. I just disagree with equating Okinawa with the Japanese home islands. They’re far away, and Japanese see Ryukyu/Okinawa as colony at best during the early 20th century.

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