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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 9, 2026

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I really don't see the benefit here, karg is just their oil export terminal. All of kargs oil has to go through the strait, which iran has closed anyway. They've already determined they can last without oil exports from karg. Karg is useless without the ability to export oil from there and iran already isn't. This logic has real "we're taking kursk as a bargining chip in negotiations" energy. How did that work out?

They are still sending their own oil out of the Strait. Mainly to China.

No they aren't, they're sending it out their port just outside the strait at chabahar.

No, the Jask port does not have sufficient capacity. They are still also loading at Kharg Island.

Yes, I know that port doesn't have capacity for all of irans oil. No, that doesn't mean they're sending it through the strait, it's just not getting out. You can look up transits of the strait, theres barely anything going through and mostly not oil tankers.

The benefit is leverage in peace negotiations, and if there is peace the strait won’t be closed anymore. The Karg island facilities are extremely valuable to Iran in peacetime, which makes them worth taking in times of war.

Alternatively, the conflict never really ends and it's gitmo east.

Alternatively, the conflict never really ends and it's gitmo east.

Yeah, I think Trump likes the idea of territorial expansion. Is it feasible to build a naval base there? And if so, does that reduce the need of the United States to locate facilities in places like Bahrain?

Iran has not "closed" the strait in normal terms. They have apparently not mined it, despite some claims that they would. Thet can still get their own oil through. What they're doing is taking shots, with drones, at other ships which transit it.

So it's not closed but they'll attack anything that goes through it? Sounds closed to me.

It's probably the case that in a military conflict shipping could pass through it. What won't go through is ordinary commercial shipping, because it isn't worth it. It's the difference between "Iran can get almost every single ship passing through" and "I'm not risking my oil tanker for no real reason."

So it's for all intents and purposes closed to shipping?

There's some wiggle room when hegseth says that it's not closed, and there's also no oil going through it. At some point ships are going to try it in volume and that's the test, isn't it?

Insurers still won't cover it, but supposedly the federal government is working on backstopping losses to get it moving again.

Irans sinking ships docked at port. I don't think anyones questioning whether they'd shoot at blockade runners.

Backstopping losses probably isn't going to make as much of a difference as they think. It's uninsurable for a reason. I carry a lot of insurance on my car, but that doesn't mean I'm going out in an ice storm. Insurance is a consolation prize for unfortunate events, not a license to take on excessive risks. "Captain, we want you to take this ship into a war zone. There's a good likelihood you'll be blown to bits, but don't worry, we'll be sure to send a ham to your widow."

I'd imagine most oil tanker crewmen are braver men than me, but if they told me I was sailing through there... I'd hop out and swim to shore.

I highly suspect the few ships that have transited are paying bribes in crypto to IRGC grand poobahs. Which might be the ultimate result of the whole thing.

Unless you're a madman with equally mad employees

https://see.news/greek-oil-tanker-crosses-strait-of-hormuz-amid-heightened-risks

They'll attack anything not theirs going through it. (That they can see, anyway, and I'm not convinced that applies to much more than "ships broadcasting their location") That's a rather big difference.

Again, just look at the chart I posted, not even their own ships are going through. Unless you think iran only exported 1 tanker a day of oil?

Yes, per international blockade rules (unless applied to the Germans in WWI), it's "closed" (although the blockade rules may have changed, I recall Russia/Ukraine being a bit odd compared to what I remember, but that may have just been dumb takes on the internet). Now, it could be more effectively closed, by mines, in the same way building a giant sea wall, having 52 Reaper drones permanently hovering, or having 18 Iowa-classes moored stem-to-stern across it would more effectively close it, but it's still "closed" without that.