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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   24232 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 16, 2026

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To sort of echo Daste's recent post, it's remarkable the lack of threads for the ongoing conflict given its historic implications for Culture War, but I'll keep the ball rolling for another update/call to register your predictions:

  • On Friday Donald Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz, or else the US will target Iranian civilian energy infrastructure. Israel has enthusiastically supported the ultimatum.
  • Iran has vowed to retaliate against Gulf energy and desalination infrastructure if the US follows through on its threat.

It's very possible the next few days will be a turning point in history. I guess I will register the prediction of Trump TACO given any other alternative is too bad for the world to fathom. Yesterday Iran did enormous damage to the towns in Southern Israel hosting Israeli nuclear infrastructure (which actually does not fall under the oversight of the IEA in contrast with Iran's program to this point). The notion that Iran is incapable of following through with its avowed retaliation is bunk, given the recent strikes on Qatar gas facilities that will have long-term impacts on global supply of natural gas.

So what's going to happen tomorrow? All of the public signals point to Trump making the decision to totally destroy Iranian infrastructure in order to destroy the country. But Iran won't back down because it would be the end of the regime. So who's going to blink?

Hyperbolic a bit? No the next few days won't change the world even if Iranians start singing Flintstones, meet the Flintstones.

It is a boring local war to which US has committed tiny portion of its force, oil takes 3 months from well to tank so any shortages and price rises are artificial right now. With Venezuela secured - chances of physical shortages for the US is low - IIRC the US has capacity in this type of heavy oil. With Qatar gone Europe will import more LNG from the states. And if Europe is left without oil - it is their own fault for antagonizing Russia.

Also there is no such thing as civilian energy infrastructure. It is not as if you can separate the electrons by spin and split them into separate conductors for the military and for the general population.

Europe is clearly not going to be left without oil. The oil market is global, oil is fungible and Europe has money.

Its poorer countries without domestic oil that are going to be left without and potentially completely collapse if this drags on.

So basically no issue at all.

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