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To sort of echo Daste's recent post, it's remarkable the lack of threads for the ongoing conflict given its historic implications for Culture War, but I'll keep the ball rolling for another update/call to register your predictions:
It's very possible the next few days will be a turning point in history. I guess I will register the prediction of Trump TACO given any other alternative is too bad for the world to fathom. Yesterday Iran did enormous damage to the towns in Southern Israel hosting Israeli nuclear infrastructure (which actually does not fall under the oversight of the IEA in contrast with Iran's program to this point). The notion that Iran is incapable of following through with its avowed retaliation is bunk, given the recent strikes on Qatar gas facilities that will have long-term impacts on global supply of natural gas.
So what's going to happen tomorrow? All of the public signals point to Trump making the decision to totally destroy Iranian infrastructure in order to destroy the country. But Iran won't back down because it would be the end of the regime. So who's going to blink?
Hyperbolic a bit? No the next few days won't change the world even if Iranians start singing Flintstones, meet the Flintstones.
It is a boring local war to which US has committed tiny portion of its force, oil takes 3 months from well to tank so any shortages and price rises are artificial right now. With Venezuela secured - chances of physical shortages for the US is low - IIRC the US has capacity in this type of heavy oil. With Qatar gone Europe will import more LNG from the states. And if Europe is left without oil - it is their own fault for antagonizing Russia.
Also there is no such thing as civilian energy infrastructure. It is not as if you can separate the electrons by spin and split them into separate conductors for the military and for the general population.
I’m benevolently assuming this is supposed to be a reference to events after the US presidential elections in 2024 and you’re suggesting that Western European leaders should have assisted Trump in pushing for at least a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine. Unfortunately there is only one Western European government that is theoretically able to decisively choose not to antagonize Russia, doing so in a way that compels smaller European states as well; that is Germany, but they are beholden not to Trump but to the globohomo US deep state, which is their creator, master, trainer and indoctrinator, as the German federal state itself is an artificial construct of theirs.
No. I am referring to supporting Ukraine unconditionally instead of cutting Realpolitik deal.
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Europe is clearly not going to be left without oil. The oil market is global, oil is fungible and Europe has money.
Its poorer countries without domestic oil that are going to be left without and potentially completely collapse if this drags on.
So basically no issue at all.
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At this point the global trade of crude oil is essentially blocked.
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There is a lot of hyperbole on this topic and it's easy to get lost in the sauce.
There are, however, some key elements that are a bit too big to just be swept under the rug.
This seems like a pretty big swipe. Especially considering Europe has already been the garbage dump for all the trash Israel and American wars have caused in the middle east.
Is there no concern Europe will eventually just either have enough or take on so much trash it can no longer function as an ally? Seems like we are already seeing signs of that with UK's reluctance or Spain's flat out refusal to aid in the war so far.
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Markets are forward looking and predicted shortages in the future lead to buying surges and demand increases now by people and companies trying to get ahead of it. This increased demand means even currently normal supply conditions can result in shortages, all because everyone is predicting tough times in the future.
Think of it like how a grocery store is emptied out when a major storm is coming up, or some of the shortages during COVID like with toilet paper. People are worried they won't have enough so they buy extra, which leaves less for others so they buy extra too.
Unless we want to export ban all the companies from selling abroad, oil shortages worldwide impact the US too. They'll need oil so they'll pay the big bucks for it and the corporations wanting profit will sell off to them, forcing domestic buyers to pony up more in response.
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"Artificial" seems a strange word for a market. Typically, economists model market actors as rational. But rational people have a conception of the future, and how events in the present -- like an oil tanker stuck due to Iran blocking Hormuz -- will influence prices in the future.
Basically, if you own a depot full of crude and anticipate that supply will be tight in the future, you might decide to hold onto your oil -- unless you are offered a higher price than usual.
Now it is certainly debatable if markets are prone to irrational behavior, but a model of the world where the oil price does not move for three months until the tanker fails to arrive strikes me as naive in the extreme.
Qatar is a US ally. Throwing them under the bus is not the typical behavior of the US, and will severely change the tradeoffs of a US alliance.
This is actually not how the chain of causality went. When Putin invaded Ukraine, both the US and EU agreed that Europe should try to avoid buying fossil fuel from Russia to limit the cash flow for Putin's war. For the most part, we did. Now Trump became profoundly disinterested in Ukraine when he finally noticed that it was not an easy Nobel for him.
If the US plays "fuck everyone else as long as our needs are met", others will too. For Europe, Ukraine is a lot more relevant than Iran having nukes. Personally, I would just make a deal with Iran to keep the Straight open for ships to Europe in exchange for gas centrifuges. It would be the same "fuck everyone else" attitude you display. Why should we care about US interests in the ME if the US is unwilling to care about anyone's interests there?
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