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The impossibility of negotiations with the US and Israel. It doesn't really matter if Iranians have coherent command or not, even a midwitted officer can independently realize the payoff matrix here. Israelis will keep killing their leadership because the official Israeli objective is regime collapse or at least degrading Iran to the condition where it can be gradually collapsed with "mowing the lawn" tactics. American negotiators (Kushner, Witkoff) are now known to be a) incompetent and b) represent Israel first, so any possible ceasefire agreements will be immediately exploited to kill Iranians with more freedom of action, like the US has done to Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq after a recent ceasefire agreement.
They don't have moves that improve their situation left, sans imposing costs on the global and regional economy and hoping to provoke a strategically unsound concession via international pressure on the US&Israel, to genuinely win time and reestablish deterrence. It's a pretty absurd bet, especially seeing as neither Israel nor the US are directly harmed by the closure of Hormuz Strait and consider giving Iranians room to develop nukes (or even maintain a ballistic missile program) unacceptable. It's also arguably backfiring with GCC countries (though this is largely irrelevant as they have little offensive capability beyond hosting American forces and allowing the use of their airspace, which they've been doing anyway).
I mean. They could voluntarily reform themselves into a peace-loving liberal democracy. They could even ally themselves to the US outright, or even to Israel!
And I know, I know, they're not gonna, it is to all intents and purposes as much of a ridiculous fantasy as "all Iranian weapon stores could spontaneously transform into rose petals overnight", but… on the other hand, no it isn't. These are human beings with moral agency and rational minds. In principle there should be nothing stopping them from just ceasing to be an oppressive warmongering theocracy, and then, miraculously, the rest of the world would stop trying to blow them up.
At some level I don't think we should lose sight of that basic fact when evaluating the decision-making ability of Iranian leadership. There is a right answer here, and although it's completely correct to start from the premise that they are simply never going to pick it, that fact alone should tell us something.
I'm pretty sure there are Iranians pondering the exact same thing about the US and Israel.
I doubt it. The Iranian people have significant support for the US and Israel.
Leadership is either too religious and thinks the infidels should quietly sit down and be destroyed or are going to understand that state planned terrorism is a dangerous game.
The diaspora does, and a few malcontents inside the country do. But they're probably few and definitely powerless, and thus irrelevant. Their older generations were basically all supporters of the regime, and their younger generations grew up drinking in the propaganda of the regime; I doubt there's too much discontent outside their version of the PMC.
Counter arguments:
Stats: "A June 2024 survey by GAMAAN showed only 20% of respondents want the Islamic Republic to remain in power, with only 11% supporting the foundational principles of the 1979 revolution."
Anecdote 1: I know some people in the diaspora who are recent exiters. Everyone they know both at home and abroad not directly connected with the regime is ecstatic.
Anecdote 2: I've seen footage of bombing in Tehran where you can hear people cheering in the background.
You have made the point repeatedly that there exist significant portions of the American public rooting against America in the present war.
Do you think the United States would fall as a result of similar circumstances?
I'm not sure that's related to my point.
It should give you context as to why Nixon wins the election even if I don't know anyone who voted for him.
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