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This is more geopolitical than culture war. There is a guy with naval experience that has been writing a theory that the US does not want to open the Straight of Hormuz. And Trump has hinted at the thesis. Especially Europe but the rest of the world has depended on the US to keep global shipping open. Europe also looks down on the US as Neanderthals. They do not have the guns to go do things like reopen the Straight and are dependent on the Americans. The US does not directly suffer from the closure as we do Neanderthal things like put little straws in the ground all over Texas sucking oil out of the ground. Europe hurts much more than the modern US today in an energy crisis (US may be net winner).
Besides being a nice FU to Europe it also exposes their geopolitical weaknesses as real. Which hopefully gets them to do things like build big guns, drill for oil, restart nuclear programs, forget Greta ever existed, etc. Which long-term I believe a strong Europe is in Americas interests. America’s relationship with Europe historically and especially Dems has been to go over there and talk nicely to them. Trump has a different philosophy which is basically poke them with a stick. On immigration it does seem like Europe is getting better.
And here is the article. [https://gcaptain.com/the-hormuz-hypothesis-what-if-the-u-s-navy-isnt-in-a-hurry-to-reopen-the-strait] (The Hormuz Hypothesis)
He talks about it more on his twitter. I am mostly posting this to see if he’s crazy or is this a good example of Trump playing 4D chess.
Edit: Based on early comments FU Europe is appropriately culture war
Konrad is a captain but he's not a military or strategy expert... You can tell in the diction these guys use, the difference between amateur and expert. I have no doubt he knows lots about freighters but he overestimates the relevance of shipping. You do not take risks in a major war for 'the SHIPS Act, the Jones Act, the U.S. flag fleet, and CMA CGM’s unfulfilled promise to triple its U.S.-flag vessels or Greenland.' None of that matters much at all in contrast to the huge stakes here. He sees everything through a shipping angle and neglects to take a wider view.
If the US had the power to open the straits they would. Firstly, oil and gas and helium and fertilizer are traded on the world market. High oil prices harm America since the US consumes lots of oil domestically, trades with other countries that use lots of oil! Konrad makes this weird point about prices bifurcating but Brent has still gone up a lot. That hurts the US.
Secondly, not opening the straits shows the US to be weak and incapable of defending the petrodollar.
Thirdly, not opening the straits gives Iran leverage and confidence in victory. To win wars you need to take the other side's cards away from them. Iran will hold out for more favorable peace terms if their primary means of leverage remains. They're even charging fees! Trump certainly wants to win, win bigly like nobody's ever won before. He wants to open the straits, fastly!
The US isn't opening the straits of Hormuz because they can't. An Arleigh Burke only has 96 VLS tubes for missiles. Some of those will be taken up with Tomahawks, already fired. The straits are a very confined space by maritime standards, it's like fighting in a telephone box. The destroyers would have to escort dozens of freighters every single day, under drone and missile attack night and day. Drones and missiles get through, that's just how things go. Not to mention that the destroyers could just get saturated, even if US air defence missiles were magical, perfectly accurate wonder weapons (they aren't). The escort would fail and possibly lose some destroyers too. That's why they haven't tried it.
A more plausible model is that Trump has demanded that the straits be reopened and the navy is deliberately trying to slow things down because they know if they just charge in it'll be a disaster.
IMO you can deal with high domestic oil prices but banning the exportation of oil etc. Producers in US would still make good money but would limit spikes that the rest of the world would deal with.
Iran gaining power would be concerning.
In the short term you can't because America lacks the refining capacity to handle the domestically produced light crude. This is not something that can be fixed in time for the midterms and possibly not even in time for the next general election.
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