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Trump is in a bad place.
It's 6 months before the mid-terms and polls imply a blue wave. In 2018, He had higher approval ratings, a thriving economy and no war....yet he got knocked down by a blue wave. With the way things are trending, it would take a great fumble for Dems to lose the house. Trump may also lose sufficient seats in Senate, so that 2028 could shape up to be a trifecta win for a Democrat.
Remember when Biden was making stupid decisions, and every Republican was (correctly) convinced he'd gone senile? That's the center-left on Trump right now. Occam's razor. Trump is losing a war. He's out of ideas. He is panicking. His incompetent and arguably America's all-time lowest IQ cabinet does not help. Rubio and JD are smart, but they can't salvage this mess.
2028 will be very hard to predict. The next (likely Democrat) President will either need to be a great uniter or a technocrat policy wonk. Newsom is highly divisive, esp in Republican states and seems kinda stupid. Would be quietly disastrous for the US. I hope he doesn't win the primaries. I like Pete, but black-homophobia may tank his campaign again. Would not be surprised if an out-of-left-field candidate showed up for 2028.
The economy is doing well though. GDP strong, unemployment low, CPI lowish. Trumps 's approval rating is in the same 2pt range now as it was before the raw. There has been no massive loss of support as many predicted 4 weeks ago when it started. Trump has the same problem Biden had, and the same low approval ratings: he's too polarizing to win over the middle/undecideds. Like with Biden, there is nothing that can change this.
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It's amazing how effectively Buttigieg has branded himself as a nerd technocrat chungus and gotten so much support from, well, the type of people who want that, given that we've now seen him in a national-level role perfect for wonky technocrats and he was useless at best. Maybe being President is easier than being Secretary of Transportation? (At this point, I think that might not be a sarcastic thing to say)
TBF, getting anything done as secretary of transportation under the woke, catty and obstructionist Biden admin may be a harder job than being President. Look at Kamala. I don't know her personal opinion on open borders, but it didn't look like she had much power to affect what would happen at the border.
Did the Biden admin get anything done ? Cabinet members were seen blocking policies, doing woke stuff and allocating budgets. Sounds like those were the only things the wider apparatus allowed them to do.
It's not branding. Compared to the other candidates (Kamala, Newsom, AOC), he is the the technocrat chungus. Then there are the 'blue-winners-in-read-states' candidates, none of which have differentiated themselves.
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I like Pete as well, but we all know it's going to be Newsom.
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Predicting Democrats won't fumble a good position is bad epistemic hygeine.
Like predicting the Jets to win a super bowl.
you're right....
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Yea, Trump's wins in 2016 and 2024 are of course very impressive given that he came from a non-political background and defeated many very experienced rivals, but he's never had a landslide. He narrowly beat two of the least charismatic presidential candidates that I can remember ever seeing, Hillary and Kamala. To be fair, there's a good chance he would have beat Biden if it hadn't been for COVID, but Biden also isn't exactly a Bill Clinton or an Obama level candidate in terms of charisma so I don't know if that's saying much. Right-wing populism has a solid future - after all, it's a popular response to many real issues. But the Trump form of it is vulnerable.
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