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Alright, AI bros, follow-up from last week. I was able to secure access to Claude Opus 4.6 at my job, and I gave it the same prompt that I had given to Sonnet. It overlooked the authentication part of the HTTP client library completely this time in what it generated. In a follow-up I asked it to extract out the common logic for the authentication portions specifically. It didn't do that, instead it generated a class with two helper methods.
The first helper method was just a thin wrapper around System.Text.Json for deserializing the response. There's an optional flag to pass in for when case insensitive deserialization is needed, and nothing else.
The second helper method was something for actually making the HTTP calls. The strangest part with this one is that it has two delegates as parameters, one for deserializing successful responses, the other for handling (but not deserializing) error responses. It didn't do anything to split out handling of the 2 different ways to authenticate at all.
The issues with what was generated (for both the API client as a whole, and for the authentication part of the code specifically) are numerous, here are a small handful that I identified:
It assumes that an HTTP 200 code is the only successful response code, even though some endpoints return 202, 207, and more.
It assumes that all endpoints return plaintext or JSON content, even though several return binary data, CSV data, etc.
It didn't do null checking in several places. I assume it was mostly trained on C# code that either didn't do null checks correctly, and/or on code that doesn't use the nullable reference type feature that was added in C# 8 (back in 2019). Regardless, the null checks are missing/wrong regardless of whether nullable reference types are enabled or disabled. Also it always checks nulls with == or != null. This works 99% of the time, but best practice is to use "is null" and "is not null" for the rare cases where the equality operator is overloaded. Once again, I assume this is because most of the training data uses == and !=.
It doesn't handle url query parameters (nor path parameters), it assumes everything is going to use a JSON body for the request.
It uses the wrong logging templates for several of the logging calls. For example, the logs for an error response use the log template for logging the requests that are sent. Even more troubling is that it removed all the logic for stripping user secrets out of these logs.
There are quite a few more issues, but overall my experience with Opus was even worse than my experience with Sonnet, if anything. AI bros still in shambles. I definitely have zero fears that AI will replace me, though I'm still definitely fearful that retarded C-suite execs will think it can replace me.
My post from last week about using Claude Sonnet: https://www.themotte.org/post/3654/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/426666?context=8#context
Edit: Just saw a very relevant post over on Orange Reddit about this very topic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47660925
This AI bro vs (idk what to call the opposition) schism on this site is very funny
I feel like both sides are talking passed each other in many ways, and also have no interest in bridging the epistemic gaps.
About me
I'm firmly in the "AI bro" camp I guess. I do not code, nor do I know how to do code aside from simple programming 101 type stuff, which is all I need(ed) to make VBA scripts work in excel. I will never copy/paste another line of Stack Overflow VBA to jank together a macro again, and that makes me very happy.
Adoption is slow, but it's gradually happening at my employer $MULTI_NATIONAL_FINANCE_CO. It is very clear to me that I will see (and already have seen) large productivity gains, especially as agent scaffolds are made for things other than coding.
LLMs are both extremely powerful and very jagged. I think a huge amount of their "jaggedness" is due to their nature as LLMs, and are very unlikely to get to ASI/some versions of AGI*. My best guess is they'll be as disruptive as the ~computer (i.e. the information age) was from 19XX-now, perhaps slightly smaller given "AI impact on human civilization" is kind of a subset of "computer impact on human civilization".
*Notwithstanding some kind of paradigm change in algorithm/AI approach. Which is always possible, but we're pretty clearly on the LLM-tech tree path for the next bit.
Vague Predictions
I am sure many white collar jobs will disappear entirely, many will be insulated for any number of reasons (ranging from genuine limits to retarded bureaucracy and everything in between) and will remain unchanged for a while, and some, like mine, will keep their core identity but day to day tasks will shift a lot and who knows what happens to employment (too many factors to guess per job).
Coding
It is clearly revolutionizing coding. This cannot be denied. GitHub commits are now going parabolic, so people are "building things". Much of which is slop. I am one of those people, I now have a small but growing fleet of personal tools. I'm sure they are coded awfully, I've never looked and wouldn't understand if I did. I don't care, they work for me.
There are much more accomplished coders on twitter, etc, who are also reporting massive changes to their lives. Many of them are incentivized to say such things and over exaggerate, but I doubt it's a massive coordinated lie or mass delusion. So there is truth there.
The more sensible ones will even agree that AI code is on average mediocre to bad, and AI can't do high precision high quality specialized code like a cracked human can. AI will even take your amazing high precision high quality specialized code and slop it if you're not careful. Many of them, like Karpathy, have just given up and accepted the slop as a price of doing business. Because they're accomplishing what they want with the code too. It works.
It's assumed that AI performance will improve massively from where it is today. It has so far, it's a pretty safe assumption right now. It's rumored that the new Claude model beat expectations on performance vs scaling laws. AI model hype is always a large % bullshit, but we'll find out the real capabilities soon, and no matter what they will be better than they are now.
I don't think LLMs are going to bring us the ASI digital god of Sam's wet dreams/nightmares. I think they are going to profoundly change our service economies regardless.
Your situation
I don't know your codebase or the thing you're getting it to do. I don't know anything about HTTP.
I seriously doubt you're trying to set the AI up for success at all. I can't code and I'm probably using more AI coding best practices than you are, and all my git commits are titled "lol".
It's also very possible that it's not worth the time to set up AI "properly" to fix this. There's a very real possibility it's much faster, if more tedious, to just do it yourself. But this is one task. N=1. There are things AI can do for you today, that's a guarantee.
The bubble
The usual retort of "skill issue" is "well if I have to set it up and use best practices then AI is a bubble". I think that's a strawman, because I am not stuck in a reflexive yes/no binary where if you like AI you can't also think it's a bubble. It could be a bubble, I don't know (or care). It's incredibly easy for an asset to be over-financed and you never know if you've done enough capex until you do too much (at any scale). What I care about is the AI tools I can access which are excellent and also flawed.
Maybe AI needs to be that good out of the box to justify the trillions in capex. It probably does. But does that matter here? Neither you nor I control capex spend or can predict how long the scaling laws will hold for.
I don't care if AI is a bubble - we'll all find out and predictions of this scale/magnitude are essentially worthless. If you have alpha and guess right, all power to you, but the bubble conversational branch strikes me as a fool's errand. And it's irrelevant to "can LLMs do things for you?".
Closing thoughts
We have LLMs here right now that are massively changing basically any digital task you point them at. It's not easy, and it doesn't work everywhere, but it's insane when it does.
It's cognitively exhausting. It's a new way of thinking + every time new models/tools come out you change many things you were previously doing. So many assumptions and bottlenecks change. It's genuinely not easy or obvious always how to implement it. We are learning this in real time as a culture.
It's so exciting, and I hope to soon quit my job at $MULTI_NATIONAL_FINANCE_CO to capture more of the value of my labor, which is about to increase a lot (probably lmao, could also go to 0).
If you want to refuse or deny the power of these tools you can. You can set about finding examples of them sucking to point and laugh. But you're letting your bias blind you, and leaving a lot of value on the table. You can tell your computer to do stuff and it can now, it's awesome.
Also noting that in your HN link the inventor of Claude Code is asking ppl for feedback/providing explanations live as I type this.
I don't have a dog in this fight, we are unfortunately being Strongly Encouraged to use AI at work.
The thing is, I think a lot of SMEs and domain experts don't realize just how bad things are even without AI. Software has been eating the world for ages and despite all efforts appears to be getting creakier, worse, and less secure either intentionally or otherwise. People can complain about AI art until the cows come home but let's not pretend 90-99.999% of art in the internet age isn't terrible either.
All the things AI can or can't do - I think, given the capabilities of current models, the best way to approach it is that it is a force or dakka multiplier for everything we produce. Quantity has a quality all its own; whether this means we make 1000x the software fuckups or not. Companies were already making incredibly poor and short-sighted decisions without AI, what they do with it will be a thing of terrible glory, with wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Yeah, I was initially worried about the quality impact on software from AI, but then I thought about it for a little longer and realised most software is already awful so it probably won't get much worse.
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I do, I've written about it here (and elsewhere) even before AI became a big thing. My grand unifying theory of modern software development is roughly:
There is greater demand for software than there are competent developers/engineers capable of delivering it
There are "enough" incompetent software developers to meet the demand
Companies hire more incompetent devs than competent because there are far more competent than incompetent
Companies create retarded processes and systems like scrum and agile because carefully managing and babying your incompetent devs is the only way to eke out something functional
The competent devs get sucked into these shitty processes (because they want/need jobs, and companies are terrible at identifying talent so they get lumped in with theretards), so even they generally aren't making quality software because of the bullshit processes etc. they have to deal with
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This might be a huge part of the divide between doubters and believers.
The code coming back might be ugly, buggy, insecure, and probably completely impossible to scale.
But if it works, how much does the 'average' user care?
Yet those who care for the quality of the code or product it might grate when they look and see the inelegance of the solutions and the lack of foresight.
Apply this to the AI art debate, too. Sure a trained eye will notice deficiencies and shortfalls. But the average user notices that they can produce a logo or a cute cartoon portrait in 15 seconds for pennies.
Me, I'm now basically using the LLMs to do final review on any work I don't feel 100% competent on, since its attention to detail is now impeccable and of course it never gets tired or complains.
Sometimes it hits some nitpicks I genuinely find stupid because in actual practice its an irrelevant detail for the actual outcome of the matter. But it catches things, so it almost feels like it'd be malpractice to not use the tool.
Anyway, its broke through to normies, AI agents are going to be huge among small busineses, I see people who are otherwise technologically inept with Grok AND ChatGPT on their phones lock screens. They are already relying on this tech to a degree that might startle you. Genie ain't going back in the bottle.
Get psychologically (and financially) prepared to adapt, that's the only advice that I can truly offer right now.
Love this uncertainty. On the one hand, I could 10x my productivity and cut my rates by half and still be making crazy money for myself. Seriously, the number of basic and intermediate tasks that GPT can do for me is freeing up time to engage with the higher leverage tasks that I enjoy and get paid the most for.
But if it gets just a little better then my role as an expert intermediary becomes redundant. I myself become a wrapper for the LLM, I'm just giving the stamp of approval to outputs that are already 99% perfect, and getting paid to eat the blame if something does go wrong 1% of the time. And competition with other humans in this role will drive my marginal profit down to pennies.
I hate this uncertainty.
I've always been an anxious person, worried for the future, etc. I've basically given up with AI, the world has gotten so ridiculous it's just funny.
I have no control, everything is going to change. Everything has changed a lot already in my lifetime. I'm just gonna ride it out, I had my friends over for a BBQ last night. Trying to do more of that this year.
From "On Living in an Atomic Age" by C. S. Lewis:
Love Lewis' writing but this is a bit like "just stop being anxious lol."
It'd still be nice to know that somebody, in a position of authority, somewhere, had a plan to clip the risks.
Faith in God is a great salve for this purpose, but for many they are just raw-dogging cold reality and need something tangible to pin their hope to.
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hell yeah brother.
The thing about singularity-like situations, reliable prediction becomes impossible. Although technically I don't have to predict with real accuracy, just better than 90+% of the population. Beat the masses to do alright, provided we aren't all killed. You can fret about this, or you can let go and focus in on the tiny parcel of territory in the vastness of probability-space that you have any influence over.
In my most primal moments, I sometimes think I should literally just locate the most physically enticing female I can attract (and compromise on everything else because what else matters if AGI hits?), liquidate most of my assets except like $100k kept in the S&P, and shack up in my house to have gratuitous amounts of sex, get all my groceries delivered, and just fuck around with AI art generators and see if I can make a bit of money off them before whatever comes next washes over us.
But man, it turns out somebody still has to do the hard work of keeping civilization turning so we can keep the lights on until we can finish the silicon god (or the false idol). Those data centers and nuclear plants won't build themselves. Yet.
I despise people who do that stupid "permanent underclass" posting, specifically to drive anxiety without any actionable outlet.
Strong recommend. I've focused on keeping the friendships I have as strong as possible. Say "yes" to more social invites than you used to. As long as the activities don't kill you before we reach utopia, why spend this exciting time hunched over a desk or lying in bed doomscrolling?
I have to admit, I have no idea how society is still supporting itself right now. Almost everyone I know is intentionally not working, including myself (got burned out and retired 6 months ago). When I can make crazy amounts of money in tech, then sit back for the rest of my life and have people deliver DoorDash meals to me ... well, who's doing the actual work holding everything up? Some dedicated cadre of 10x engineers?
Sure wish I had the social skills to implement your gratuitous-sex suggestion, though. Not that I think we're in a true singularity - I expect the world to look pretty different in 10 years, but not an unrecognizable ASI dys/utopia. So maybe put the heroin away for now...
Something I wonder about almost daily.
Like a chump, I still have to go to work and accomplish things.
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Its hard to tell for sure, but everyone I know is now working harder than before to keep things at baseline. Like, longer hours, or multiple jobs, and still falling behind.
And I'm talking almost all industries. Actuary buddy, senior pharmacist buddy, construction foreman buddy, IT buddies, and all my friends who are even tangentially connected to the medical field.
People in my circle seem to have less free time. It fits with the apparent stats that show more people dropping out of the labor force, the increase in people drawing on welfare/disability programs, and, of course, the silver wave of boomer retirees. They still consume services, demand products, but aren't on the productive side of the equation any longer.
Oh, and its possible deportations are causing issues too.
Most sit-down restaurants seem understaffed. Hospitals are teeming with patients. Any services you need to set appointments for are pushed out for weeks. Municipal governments seem to be struggling to perform their core functions in a timely manner. One symptom I've noticed is that most 24 hour Wal-Marts (and fast food places) went away after Covid and haven't come back. Every service I have availed myself of seems to be more expensive and less flexible/available due to sheer demand.
Just more work to be done, everywhere, than there are people available to do it, and yet tons and tons of people also consuming services, many of whom don't seem to be working, themselves?
The forbidden question.
I can't say for sure, I assume there's a group of people who just quietly and diligently do their work (competently) and collect their paycheck and go home and do whatever they do or raise their families without posting about it online and they are generally content.
The thing I do notice is that businesses that do keep things flowing and keep their prices reasonable often have some form of "slave labor" they draw on. Maybe its their kids, maybe its some barely-sober recovering druggie, or illegal immigrant, or a dude with clear mental deficiency who is nonetheless very functional once trained.
That is, people who are able to do basic labor day in and day out and aren't prone to demanding better pay, and may have some specific incapacity (maybe physical, maybe social) that makes them unlikely to quit.
That's not universal, I've seen the flip side, where an employer treats his people so well and compensates them generously enough that they're extraordinarily loyal and productive.
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One of my favorite parts of this forum is moments like this, when someone puts my thoughts into words better than I could. I agree with every word.
I have the exact same view on AI art. I have quite low skills in "artistic taste", it's never I skill I've been good at or sought to develop much (low reward per n time vs things I like more). But now I can get to make funny images and concept art and express ideas in mediums that were previously locked to me. What fun! Yet there's people crying and screaming on the internet because like game developers are using AI agents to help them make games faster+better. I'm just excited for the golden age of AI gameslop. Good dev studios are going to be absolutely cooking.
I'm hoping this window of time lasts a while. I'm adjacent to the legal world and they're going to use every institution they wield (many!) to keep themselves in this state for as long as they can.
That's interesting.
I have tolerable art skills, but low intrinsic motivation. Sometimes I get over the hurdle of deciding what to paint, and then I do actually paint it, but more often I get stuck at "what could I possibly do with another painting of a flower? Where will I store it? I already have too many photos even, and I don't have to physically store them" and don't paint it.
I spend a lot of time talking to software developers and adjacent people, and am entirely unable to imagine what kind of thing I would program, if I had a program creating ginn. There are some apps (ugh, terrible word, so tired of it) that I have that want fewer of. Why did I have to download an app to get a concert ticket? I don't think it's just because I'm old, I'm not all that old. My millennial friends are often talking about how much they dislike screens, and want less of them, and less things on them, and how there's quite too much digital product already, even for free.
Yeah.
I pretty much want an 'everything app' that gets me through my daily life without having to constantly stay logged in, updated, and, god help me, subscribed to dozens of different services to interact with businesses.
The AI agents are sort of promising to become that.
The idea that every single person can deploy a bespoke app which other people can then download and use for [minor convenience] terrifies me in a certain sense.
Especially when these apps start to feel like they're just there to do rent-seeking by standing between you and the things you want, demanding payment to even get to see the options. Yes, why do I need an app to buy concert tickets? This deal was supposed to be between me and the venue and artist. Why do I need to download an app to pay for a parking space? Why do I need an app to to track calories and a DIFFERENT app to track workouts? Why do I need 6 different communications apps to stay in touch with friends? WHY DOES MY BLENDER NEED AN APP?
And yeah, in some cases I get why there are issues solved by having the app in place. I'm just saying the sum total is that I end up with 100 apps on my phone and I have to use 10-20 of them on the daily and my monkey brain isn't designed for this shit.
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I mean, there's no way that the legal profession doesn't outlaw AI use in law the moment it becomes a threat to their jobs, right? Lots of law makers are lawyers, and I don't think they are above using the levers of power to make sure their profession can't be replaced.
I'm not sure how they'll catch attorneys who are careful about the end products they're filing.
You might see attorneys staying suspiciously effective despite juggling large caseloads, making surprisingly adept legal arguments in their briefs while their performance at a live hearing is lacklustre.
But yeah it'll be banned from any client or public-facing roles to large extents.
AI use by attorneys will get lots of attention for job market and ethics reasons, but the courts are 100% unprepared for the day when pro se litigants start filing piles of plausible-sounding briefs in their traffic ticket/misdemeanor/family court cases.
Like @faceh, I too have had the displeasure of witnessing a pro se litigant attempt to argue an AI slop motion in front of a judge. A 300+ paragraph AI slop motion. It was a post-trial motion. And I heard quite a bit of it because all the litigant could do was read it verbatim. After 20 minutes, I still had no idea what the case was even about, because he evidently didn't know that lawyers have to argue the facts of the case. After it became unbearable, I realized that since a TV show was filming in one of the courtrooms a friend of mine from high school who works in the industry might be there (I run into the guy once every few years), and even if he wasn't it would give me something to do while I waited for my case to be called. Sure enough, I saw him as soon as I left the courtroom and caught up with him for about a half hour. When I came back, the guy was still reading from his brief, and the judge told him he wasn't going to listen to the whole thing and cut the guy off while he gave the defense a chance to argue. It was only then that I was able to glean that he had apparently sued Hertz rental truck for being injured on their property, and that AI evidently didn't tell him that his mother was not qualified to act as a medical witness, or prepare a proper defense to their motion in limine that would allow her to testify as a damage witness. When the judge went back to the guy for his response he just continued reading from his brief.
Honestly, I think AI actually makes things worse for pro se litigants because at least before, judges were willing to cut them some slack and argue the facts of their case in a more informal way. Their deficit was that they didn't understand the law well enough to argue the facts effectively. Now they can generate pages upon pages of legalese they don't understand but think is the magic bullet that separates them from the lawyers and that they'll be able to wow the judge with their mad legal skillz. All the judge is going to do is smile politely during their argument and rule against them, because they haven't said anything.
Here's what I think about: I've seen a pro se defendant reduce a 30-year prosecutor to tears of rage with non-stop well-written motions because the prosecutor had to respond to every single one. The defendant had been through the system a number of times and had learned enough from his trips to be able to write decent motions. He ended up getting a plea on a felony case that the prosecutor had previously swore would never happen (guy had a ton of priors, so still prison, but 1/10th of his risk after trial).
The number of defendants like that is vanishingly small. He was writing those motions from in-custody, which made it all the more impressive. The skill required to do that is very rare.
Once the AI motions get good enough, every out of custody defendant can be that guy. Perhaps the in-custody ones once they figure out a way (probably via family or friends or whatever) to access an AI outside the jail. The system is not prepared for every traffic case, misdemeanor, and felony to turn into a barrage of plausible-sounding motions.
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Yeah, the 'deference' judges give to pro se litigants (if they are clearly unable to afford attorneys, that is) is going to backfire as it becomes more common for them to use AI for drafting basic stuff, and thus the volume of filings increases but the work of actually parsing and applying it still falls on the Judge and opposing counsel. Who will, 'ironically,' probably start using AI assistance to keep up.
The case I'm dealing with, thankfully, is a straightforward land use/partition action and the pro se party is otherwise very cooperative, but you can tell that the stuff they're filing is AI-assisted because the few times I've talked to them directly they have been unable to do anything but re-articulate their general position, and don't quite understand the processes they've chosen to invoke.
I'd hope the AIs would advise AGAINST 300 paragraph briefs, that's for sure.
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They're already doing it in low-stakes Civil cases.
Ask me how I know.
The UK NIMBY community was one of the first groups to take up legal AI with Objector. Every significant planning application now receives multiple lengthy AI-generated objections stating every plausible legally valid reason for rejecting it.
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In my experience the average user starts to care right around the same time that heir credit card number and mother's maiden name end up for sale to the highest bidder.
No one is going to vibe code their own SAAS to replace Salesforce et al
Salesforce and other huge boys with giant moats will enjoy higher labor efficiency. May experience serious pain due to higher competition > margin pressure but hard to predict.
Mid-cap software will knife fight each other over margins as competitors grow like weeds.
Small-cap/VC/PE idek lol, really excited to watch this space.
I'm super curious to see what happens when a given VC can invest in 5x as many startups per unit of $capital. I assume startups will scale faster. Do VCs stretch themselves thin with more companies in a portfolio? Do funds get bigger or smaller? Are there more or less actual VCs? Is it easier or harder to get a VC fund going?
That last bit is the most interesting part to me.
Right now, my understanding is that VC is extremely hard to get because a handful of AI darlings have sucked all the air out of the room. If they IPO soon, VCs should theoretically have freed up capital to deploy as the OpenAIs/Anthropics of the world start to show a return.
If I believe the argument, then it should result in a much larger number of smaller investments, since labor is ostensibly the biggest cost of software startups and that cost should plummet.
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I don't think the normies are THAT far along that they'd trust it with their financial information.
But not too far out, either.
They might trust a Vibe-coded website, though.
As I understand it any website taking customers' financial information will usually use a third party's software rather than roll their own.
If Paypal et al. are vibe coding without regard to security we are in for some pain.
Block is vibe coding now
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