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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   27671 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 6, 2026

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In the post you linked I said five weeks, and it’s been six, so can I say “same difference potato potato” or do I need to explain what someone really means when they say “just a second”?

Is it even possible for you to admit that the war was a mistake

Because you seemingly phrased this question such that I’m actually irrational and refusing to recognize the truth (“that the war was a mistake”) as though my zealotry is blinding my eyes. Next I can say “nothing can ever convince me” and you can all roll your eyes and write me off? Is it possible for you to admit that the war is going well?

Next I can say “nothing can ever convince me”

Is this the case, then?

Is it possible for you to admit that the war is going well?

Sure. For example:

  • Iran hands over the uranium and pinkie promises not to make a nuke
  • the Ayatollah steps down and the Iranians make a new thank you USA
  • Iran renounces support for the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah in word and in deed

Those are the kind of things that would make me say the war was a success. Now it's your turn!

Considering that the war is going well something pretty dramatic would have to change for it to become a failure. But for the sake of argument let's see...

  • Iran starts consistently winning skirmishes and engagements, sinking ships, killing hundreds of American soldiers, etc.
  • Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, et al. start crying uncle and start begging for America to exit / surrender to Iran
  • Iran acquires nuclear weapons
  • Iran tolls the Strait of Hormuz
  • The Abraham Accords are abandoned and Israel reverts to being a pariah state

I find it a little amusing that most of these would constitute things being worse than the status quo ante. It seems that if tomorrow Donald announces that the war is over and everyone goes home and we end up where we were before all this mess except Iran spent some missiles and replaced the Ayatollah you'd consider this a smashing success.

Yeah if this war ends and Iran doesn't control the strait and has no military or nuclear weapons that is a victory. By definition.

I find it a little amusing that most of these would constitute things being worse than the status quo ante.

You asked for things which would be a failure. Why is it amusing that failure is worse than the status quo ante?

Because prosecuting a war at some cost of blood and treasure only to end up with the status quo ante is a failure.

The status quo ante itself is unreachable, because so much of Iran's military and leadership has been killed. We spent blood and treasure, and they spent blood and treasure and nothing else changed isn't really the status quo ante.

Yes? You asked what a failure would look like and Shakes answered, why would a failure not look like a failure?

Shakes' position is that the status quo ante is a success.

No?

Yeah if this war ends and Iran doesn't control the strait and has no military or nuclear weapons that is a victory. By definition.

Iran had a military at the start of this. If all it achieved was smashing up the Iranian military, but Iran doesn't get to toll the strait and doesn't get any closer (or further) from getting nuclear weapons, then it is still a moderate success by his metrics. Seems straightforward to me. It was one of the stated aims of the bombings right from the start, to degrade Iranian military capabilities. So if it achieves that without the needle moving in any way in the other direction, then it's an unambiguous, but partial, victory for the US.

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