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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   1817 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for April 12, 2026

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Is the war in Ukraine eugenic for Russia? Apparently all the combat units are sourced from soldiers who sign volitional contracts, and those who sign up are from the poorest regions, enticed by a one-time payment of 2-4x their annual salary.

I'm suspicious that they're not using any vatniks conscripts at all right now, but leaving that aside, getting a significant fraction of your own young men killed in a pointless war causes too much damage to even remotely be worth it, especially given Russia's senile demographics.

IIRC, Russia hasn't declared war, so they can't draft anyone (at least without changing the law). It's all "volunteers".

That's incorrect. Russia mobilized about 100k people in September of 2022. The mobilization is still technically active, but the people in charge got spooked by the negative reaction to this and switched to paying volunteers instead.

Russia have been mobilizing and is continuing to mobilize, however at the same time - as it is common in Russia - officially not doing it. How? Well, there are actual "volunteers" - meaning people that actually decide to go to war without being pressured - many of which are induced by promise of payments (a lot of them don't get them) and by promises that they won't see any combat but would serve in the auxiliary roles (also frequently a lie - once you are in the system, you have zero influence on where you get sent) or just flying drones (which may be true, but guess who would be the primary target for the enemy drones). Then there are other pipelines. The obvious one is making draftees that finished their mandatory service to stay longer on contract. It's easy to do since they are already in the system and in the full power of their commander, and he just needs them to sign on the line. Prisoners were a big one, but you don't have to be in prison - many who have troubles with the law are offered a choice - either you undergo all the problems with arrests, trials, etc. or you sign a "voluntary" contract and become a hero, defender of the Motherland. Given as the attention from the law enforcement in Russia rarely ends well for anybody, many agree and sign up "voluntarily". Same if somebody owes a lot of money (either to the state or to private bank) - they are offered an easy and "voluntary" solution to their troubles. Same for illegal migrants. Same for homeless, other socially troubled cases. Easy solution for every problem. All "voluntary" - everybody signs a contract.

In addition to that, the heads of many major state-dependent organizations - major companies, large colleges, other state-dependent institutions - are given the quota of enlisting of 2% of their headcount to "volunteer". How would they do that? Dealer's choice. Lie, cheat, promise, propagandize, threaten, bribe - nobody cares, get to the quota. Even if they get to 1%, that's tens of thousands of people. None of those people technically are mobilized, all technically volunteers, though how exactly they came to volunteer, nobody will ever ask.

It appears accurate that, at least for now, Russian government spends a lot of effort to not declare an overt, forced mobilization and fill up their needs with contractors (in addition to regular draft, of course, but no additional forced mobilization). If the situation on the front lines will get worse for some reason, or they need more troops (like, there are persistent rumors about Russians eyeing Baltia and reconnecting Königsberg to the mainland) that may change. But for now, yes, no draft, officially.

You are correct with one exception. Illegal immigrants aren't routinely stealth-mobilized, they are mainly just getting deported.

Legally, non-citizens can not be mobilized, even though non-citizens did participate in the war (e.g. North Koreans) but not as part of "voluntary" or involuntary mobilizaton. But people who are freshly legalized can, and reportedly are: https://www.currenttime.tv/a/kak-rossiyskaya-armiya-otpravlyaet-migrantov-s-grazhdanstvom-rf-na-voynu-protiv-ukrainy/33428706.html That said, it's Russia, so "legally" can be stretched, and there are various reports that non-citizens got drafted too: https://longreads.cabar.asia/mobilization_ru How many of those have any legal status and how many do not, impossible to know. I am not claiming it's the main source of mobilized, but there's anecdata it happens, likely as a local attempt to fill the quotas.

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