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birb_cromble  2d ago (text post)   882 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread

Since a lot of us here have expressed interest in not starving to death in a gutter, I figured I'd start a weekly thread to discuss financial matters.

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I could use some investing advice. I have about $120k in Vanguard VTSAX and $100k sitting around in a bank account that I have no plans for at the moment. My goal is to be low effort and just sit long on it, since I'm lazy and just generally want it to sit around and not have to pay attention to it. Should I just buy more VTSAX? Are there better index funds I can throw my money in and get more returns long term? I don't want to have to actually pay attention to the stock market and buy and sell different things, but am not sure if I'm leaving money on the table by not knowing about XYZ fancy financing thing I could stick my money in.

I guess I’m moderately bearish. Maybe a little sell in May correction. So I think I would wait for a 10% correction to deploy.

Some funds I’ve come across that could be of interests is David Orr’s Militia Capital. Does long and short. A lot of Japanese value. It’s corrected. Has had solid performance since inception. It’s a younger fund but I think you want managers in their prime. They do burn out. So he probably has 10 years. Also Gator Capital always interested me some for financials exposure. I think you can take 10-20% of exposures outsides of just beta products. Bonds also look like a reasonable risks reward at 5% on 30’s. So you can probably put $50k of your cash into them now. If shit would hit the fan they definitely provide a good hedge to other exposures now. If QE was needed again you could get a lot of cap gains there.

I guess I’m moderately bearish. Maybe a little sell in May correction. So I think I would wait for a 10% correction to deploy.

You could be waiting for years, at which point you will be buying back at a much higher price than had you bought now.

Nothing I like more for being bearish than hearing markets will never go down. It’s been a big fast rally. And we are entering the most bearish time of the year. I feel find being on sidelines.

Last time we had a market talk some one said they were dumping all their spy and only buying oil stocks on war. Now oil indexes are down a few % and spy up 14%. My gut says oil stocks have more downside. Because of all the AI capex buybacks from tech firms have collapsed. Big IPOs will suck up capital this summer. I see a lot of market reasons for a correction.

I’m low on fomo. Usually sitting out the current thing and being patient has some value.

I'm going to wait for a correction

You could be waiting years

Nothing I like more for being bearish than hearing markets will never go down.

You must have a talent for hearing that, since that's not what the guy said!

It's extremely difficult to beat DCA by buying the dip.

Whatever that guy is selling is obviously false. Also noticed he doesn’t seem to pay interests to cash balances. I think it’s because he’s also not selling the rip. And the general upward trend of the market doesn’t guarantee the next dip is bigger than the average value over the prior time period.

I also never said just buy the dip. I said don’t buy right now.

Jane St made 17b last quarter. This place is filled with those types. There is an absolute ton of alpha in the market.

This is why I tend to DCA.

He’s correct DCA is quantitatively bad. If equities have a positive risks premium then DCA just means you invest later.

This is different than having positive market timing. I’m bearish now but DCA in general is an inferior strategy. Its main benefit is psychological since if you do it over time your less likely to be sitting on a loss even though on average it produces lower returns.

If you have a big pile up front you're right, but I do it each month as I earn the money.

Fair. I guess it’s used in the same way in the vernacular. You are just fully investing as you earn money.

If I were a financial advisor and someone came to me who just won $5m on the powerball there would be a lot of psychological reasons to DCA. Primarily me not getting fired if market goes down. If market goes down I can sell that now they get to buy cheaper. If market goes up they are happy about making money.

even then you end up missing out. research shows if you have any $ the optimal strategy is to go all in

I do it every month from cash flow, so it's not like I'm losing out much. I don't have a lump sum to sit on.

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