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Notes -
The MOU Homesick Blues
Over the last two days, Donald Trump and JD Vance have been selling their embryonic Iran Deal to the American public and to the world. Trump has said, among other things:
Directly he states:
Along with this banger
JD has said:
Israeli ministers have been striking out against the deal
Now reports are coming in that Israel does not consider itself bound by the MOU, and intends to keep bombing Lebanon without reference to it.
The IRGC has stated today:
With the United States executive committed to the MOU, and Israel committed to the opposite policy, Yeshiva World News reports:
So, what now?
How does the USA navigate this problem with its erstwhile ally?
Part of me feels very strongly, the patriotic Toby Keith, regardless of your feelings about US policy or about this administration, that we can't have our president get cucked like that on the world stage. Trump has publicly signed, endorsed, justified, sold the MOU. He's stated clearly that it is necessary to the interests of the United States in maintaining the global economy. If Israel is our ally, our greatest ally, then they can't be allowed to do this to us. They can't insult and undermine the clear foreign policy of the POTUS and be allowed to do so. From the beginning I've said that Israeli forces, inasmuch as they are allied to the USA, should be under the command of an American general, Spartan style. They can't be allowed to go against us and continue to suck off the teat of the American taxpayer.
So plan trusters, antisemities, pro-Palestinians, shitlibs, anyone. Where do we go from here with Israel? What happens next? How can you, as the American President, allow your ally to undermine your own clearly stated foreign policy goals and, in your own opinion, wreck the world economy? At this point in the process what pressure can even be put on Iran?
This feels bad.
But that is not how it works. Usually, when allies go at war against a common enemy is that none of them will end the war until both agree to end it. Israel is a sovereign nation, and it was not even represented during the MOU negotiations. Why would they feel bound by the resulting MOU?
Donald Trump and you seem to both assume the US can decide whatever, including starting or stopping a war with Iran, without consulting any of his allies, and those allies will just obey. But they are free countries, it just does not work this way.
This has been an overall issue with the Trump administration. The assumption that any decision made by the US is law, and that everyone else will follow regardless of whether they were present at negotiations or not.
You saw it as US reduced aid to Ukraine, assuming the EU would follow suit.
Next during peace negotiations when America decided to not invite Ukraine, and instead assumed they would acquiesce to whatever decision the two great powers came up with.
In the initial phases of the Iran war, Trump assumed the rest of NATO would help. Even though it was not in their interest and they had not been involved with invasion plans in the first place. This war was notably a surprise for almost all interested parties, yet the US expected help as if they had all agreed on a plan together.
Now you have these Iran peace talks in which one of the parties to the war is not involved. Then everyone acts surprised when said party ignores the terms of a deal they never agreed to.
It's like watching an asshole watch a 20 minute video on realism and then try to implement it IRL.
On the other hand, it does allow him to go back to one of his campaign messages: "everyone is a freeloader that won't help America when we need them."
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Why would they? Trump is an egotistical fool who believes the flattery coming out of any dictators mouth but it doesn't change that nations like China and Russia are our enemies and have no actual reason to listen to him. Putin might have kept whispering in his ear during those late night gossip calls that "I never would have had to start the war under you Trump, this is Biden's war absolutely", but anyone with a brain knows that this isn't true. Putin started it because he wants Ukraine, the same reason he's not ending it now despite years of stalemate and a drain on his country's resources and population.
And Ukraine along with the rest of Europe doesn't want to be taken. You can get a lot out of allies as the top dog, but they're not going to the grave for you, allies doesn't mean chained up slaves.
Those make sense to fail, it's an egotistical idiot believing the lies of any adversarial tinpot who tells him nice things and wondering why his orders to our friends to jump off a cliff aren't being followed. Even the best and most powerful presidents would not succeed here, allies wouldn't kill themselves for a Reagan either.
But Israel is engaged in an offensive war in Lebanon! They're moving large populations out of their homes in mass genocide. And their constant attacks are directly screwing with the US plans to surrender and restore the world economy. If we can't even pressure the nation with no other allies but us, that directly relies on the US, into not engaging an offensive war to save the world economy then it seems the Trump admin has little influence anywhere when it matters.
Start threatening things like Magnitsky sanctions for all the war crimes and human rights abuses they do or cutting aid or whatever. Trump of course won't because he's a weak man who can't stand up to the Zionist lobby even if he wanted to. And Israel knows this, there is nothing Trump is willing to do to bring them to heel. The same thing Iran has learned. The same thing many of Trump's opponents targeted by political warfare have learned. The bark is louder than the bite, you push back against the bully and he eventually flees.
Is this meant to be satire, on people claiming everything is genocide?
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“ The assumption that any decision made by the US is law, and that everyone else will follow regardless of whether they were present at negotiations or not.”
I don’t agree with your Ukraine point. The US decided they didn’t want to pay for Ukraine because it’s not America first and largely not a US interests. The Trump administration has been consistent in wanting Europe to spend more on their military. My understanding of the MAGA position is MAGA never had a problem with the EU paying for a European war.
As far as both countries on the same side needing to agree to continue a war it’s generally not that both countries need to agree to end it. Either can continue or end the war when they want to but when the stronger nation decides to end it usually the weaker ally has to follow the big dogs decision. If Israel keeps dragging us back into the war I honestly would have no problem with Trump bombing Israel. Remind the Jews whose daddy in this relationship. Might even be fairly popular in domestic politics.
Perhaps this is a sign of poor understanding of international relations on my part, but I would assume that you would at least want to present a shared front with your allies during formal negotiations. Make sure you have pressured your ally before negotiations if need be, so that you know ahead of time that they will officially support the deal you sign.
It seems that Trump just skips this entirely. He simply ignores his allies during negotiations, then expects them to support a decision that blindsided them completely.
Lipstick on a pig stuff. Yes Trump ignores the genuflecting to Europe etc to make them feel good that their opinion matters. But realistically the US opinion has been all that matters for decades.
Except that yet again, the gap between “the US is vastly more powerful than its allies” and “US opinion is all that matters” is biting the US in the arse.
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I had several hypothesis regarding Trump choices. I thought there was some secret plan explaining his behaviour. For example, asking NATO for help without consulting them could have been a plan to undermine and ultimately dismantle it. But unless he also wants to alienate Israel, I think he has no plan beyond what we see.
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