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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   1088 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for June 28, 2026

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Whatever happened to the Catalonian independence movement?

All 12 members were killed in a vicious ambush set by the Free Wales Army.

With no particular knowledge, I’d guess the same thing that’s been happening for the last couple centuries. It had a whole subplot in the Spanish Civil War. It was a recurring theme in the Napoleonic wars, too. I can only assume it comes and goes with the capability of the Spanish state…

A bunch of things:

  • Demographics: Dilution due to immigration, and revolution is a young man's game, and Catalonia (like the rest of Spain) is increasingly old.
  • The EU sided with Spain
  • Economic constraints: as a consequence of secession risk (well, that and left wing anti-business governments), lots of corporate headquarters and business are moving from Barcelona to Madrid.

Now, I think there is a chance it comes back due to couple of factors:

There is a generational gap, older Catalonians are more independentist, as are the really young, there is a large cohort of youngish/middle aged people who don't really care that much, but as the younger generation comes to power, they might move the issue back into play. Immigrants are not loyal to Catalonia, but they're not loyal to Spain either, and Catalonia is expending effort into integrating them: free Catalan lessons, education primarily in Catalan, etc.. If the EU falters (not that unlikely), you might find yourself with a population that is once again pro-independence, without the guardrails that prevented it last time.

TFW Catalonia achieves independence as an Islamic state.

What a world.

Immigrants are primarily economic immigrants, and I would expect that people trying to establish themselves inna new country would try to veer as far away from politically sensitive topics as possible, unless they were promised economic gain.

Also with a regional TFR of ~1.08 Catalonia may find itself having drastic cultural change in short order, losing the impetus for independence.

I don't think there's any impetus right now. And if I had to bet even odds, I'd bet very strongly against independence ever happening, I'm thinking more of a pathway to it possibly reigniting, from the younger natives and naturalized children of immigrants.

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