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With all due respect to the SSPX and the Roman Catholic Church, I don’t think this affair will turn out to be nearly as important as you seem to think it is.
One thing that did surprise me about Rome’s response was how all-encompassing it was. Not only are the bishops and priests excommunicated, but so are the laity (“As regards the lay faithful, those who formally adhere to the Priestly Fraternity of Saint Pius X are to be considered schismatics and excommunicated”). I’m not sure anyone predicted that. It’ll be interesting to see if the laity are as willing to openly defy the pope as the SSPX clergy are.
ETA: If this event ends up marking the final break between the SSPX and Rome, it’ll be interesting to see if the SSPX remains just as committed to its über traditional beliefs in 100–200 years, or if they’ll end up like the Old Catholic Churches that split off after the First Vatican Council, many of which now ordain women and bless same-sex marriages. Not that anyone alive today will ever see any such progression, of course, though the SSPX could end up in communion with some of the more traditional Old Catholics within our lifetimes.
Thé SSPX would tear itself to shreds and then die out before it got to that. They’re already walking a tightrope on being conservative enough to prevent an exodus from their own right wing hardliners and near associates; Williamson’s band of merry men is not something that they are eager to repeat(even if they did just consecrate Fr Goldade a bishop). Liberalizing churches also tend to go downhill very fast in this world. Add them up, and we might see some sort of tiny old calendarist equivalent jurisdiction, we might see them crack apart, we might see some sort of ROCOR equivalent where they merge into regular structures in such a way that allows them to have bishops, but we are very unlikely to see an old Catholic equivalent.
It’s helpful to look at the history; old Catholics did originate with a handful of individuals who disagreed with papal infallibility, one of whom was a bishop. But it grew mostly not by recruiting likeminded individuals but rather by convincing people who wanted to start their own Catholic Church for other reasons of their position. Most old Catholics are descended from essentially mercenary projects- even if it was often unrelated political reasons rather than straight money that motivated them. The SSPX does not have mercenary origins. It continues to deny Mel Gibson communion for adultery despite his fame and large donations. It does not endorse whatever is fashionable on the political right(much to the chagrin of some members), and only cooperates with secular politics when it thinks it needs something.
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I think it could go either way long term in terms of social teachings. Look at Palmarians.
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