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With all due respect to the SSPX and the Roman Catholic Church, I don’t think this affair will turn out to be nearly as important as you seem to think it is.
One thing that did surprise me about Rome’s response was how all-encompassing it was. Not only are the bishops and priests excommunicated, but so are the laity (“As regards the lay faithful, those who formally adhere to the Priestly Fraternity of Saint Pius X are to be considered schismatics and excommunicated”). I’m not sure anyone predicted that. It’ll be interesting to see if the laity are as willing to openly defy the pope as the SSPX clergy are.
ETA: If this event ends up marking the final break between the SSPX and Rome, it’ll be interesting to see if the SSPX remains just as committed to its über traditional beliefs in 100–200 years, or if they’ll end up like the Old Catholic Churches that split off after the First Vatican Council, many of which now ordain women and bless same-sex marriages. Not that anyone alive today will ever see any such progression, of course, though the SSPX could end up in communion with some of the more traditional Old Catholics within our lifetimes.
Thé SSPX would tear itself to shreds and then die out before it got to that. They’re already walking a tightrope on being conservative enough to prevent an exodus from their own right wing hardliners and near associates; Williamson’s band of merry men is not something that they are eager to repeat(even if they did just consecrate Fr Goldade a bishop). Liberalizing churches also tend to go downhill very fast in this world. Add them up, and we might see some sort of tiny old calendarist equivalent jurisdiction, we might see them crack apart, we might see some sort of ROCOR equivalent where they merge into regular structures in such a way that allows them to have bishops, but we are very unlikely to see an old Catholic equivalent.
It’s helpful to look at the history; old Catholics did originate with a handful of individuals who disagreed with papal infallibility, one of whom was a bishop. But it grew mostly not by recruiting likeminded individuals but rather by convincing people who wanted to start their own Catholic Church for other reasons of their position. Most old Catholics are descended from essentially mercenary projects- even if it was often unrelated political reasons rather than straight money that motivated them. The SSPX does not have mercenary origins. It continues to deny Mel Gibson communion for adultery despite his fame and large donations. It does not endorse whatever is fashionable on the political right(much to the chagrin of some members), and only cooperates with secular politics when it thinks it needs something.
It is more complicated than that. The whole succession of bishops goes back to 1723 where Jesennists had dispute with Vatican regarding ecclesiology, the remnants just joined forces with other rebels over time. These things tend to split and merge, for instance even Union of Utrecht had merger with Polish Catholics who then left after they saw the push toward liberalization. In a sense these wandering rebels just use random bishops to create their own priests.
Nevertheless they are strictly radical. They go hard against Vatican II and demand that the Catholic Church declares at least parts of it as in error. This never happened in Catholich Church for 2000 years. Even most egregious doctrines like Doctrine of Discovery are not outright dismissed as erroneous, they are declared as "product of their time" or some such. This is by the way exactly what Benedict XVI offered with hermenautics of continuity: interpret church documents in a way that gives primacy to more important dogmas and doctrines thus basically castrating them.
All in all SSPX are absolutely boneheaded:
The whole crusade against Vatican II is by itself one of the most radical and modernist stances currently available. If Pope can annul results of ecumenical council such as Vatican II then why not Trent or Nicaea? This only gives ammo to radicals. Vatican II will stand, there is no way it will be overturned or declared as erroneous as it would mean that the visible Church was in error for over 60 years now and counting. This creates orders of magnitudes more problems than it solves.
It will not even help. There are older documents like Summi Pontificatus and Plane Compertum Est by Pius XII in 1939, which (re)introduced concept of incluturation - incorporating local customs into Catholic life. This is at least as radical as Nostra Aetatum or Dignitas Humanae as it basically makes what "traditionalists" considered as idolatry permissible directly overturning Ex quo singulari from 1742 by papal fiat. And BTW SSPX consider Pius XII as a good and traditional pope and they have no problem with Summi Pontificatus, they just obsess over Vatican II. If you specifically focus on the inculturation vs idolatry doctrine and Magisterium, there were several 180 degrees turns at least since 600 till Vatican II and beyond. There are dozens or hundreds such historical documents for this or other topics, that can be used by progressive pope to bash over peoples head, Vatican 2 is not some unique aberration that changed pristine history of church Magisterium.
I studied SSPX and I even have some sympathies toward them. But I concluded that they are bunch of morons who at this point just revolt for revolt's sake. Their arguments are circular, illogical and ultimately come from place of pride - they use strong language more suited for online CW as opposed to theological disputes inside Cathoilicsim. They will never be a better deal than the one offered by Benedict: having personal prelature (bishop structure under pope himself sidesteping local diocesan bishops), just having to pay lip service to accept Vatican II as a valid ecumenical concil that is to be interpreted correctly, having full right to be custodians of Tridentine Mass and all that.
Instead SSPX chose confrontation. There will for sure be more splits and arguments inside the SSPX, the whole thing is unstable as it is self-defeating, the whole movement is based on personal reading of what the church teaching means and it will be their undoing.
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That's what happens when you start fissioning, and what will be the end result of cutting ties with Rome. The same kind of purity death spiral you see on the left, the really radtrad hardliners will find an excuse to break off from them for not being strict enough, and they'll end up with their bishops cutting loose and ordaining clergy for the breakaways and everything gets even smaller and smaller in a People's Front of Judea versus Judean People's Front kind of fallout.
And some of the splinters will go the other way, like the Danube Seven who claim they do too have apostolic succession since an independent bishop ordained them, even if they were ladies, so they in turn could ordain etc. etc. etc. all the womenpriests.
I too am surprised this happened, but I think Rome finally ran out of patience. The SSPX have been burning through second chances at a rate of knots, and Leo is young enough* that he doesn't have the sympathy with them that the likes of Benedict did.
*Yeah, he's seventy, but Benedict was ordained in 1951 and Leo was ordained in 1977. Whole different generation and experience of growing up with the new Mass.
The SSPX resistance already exists(and has six consecrations, not just two- despite existing for about a third as long and serving far fewer people), and is somehow on worse terms with the SSPX than either is with the Vatican. They may be insane and often criminally inclined, but they do exist and are not particularly trending left(they're busily purity spiraling into sedevacantism).
The SSPX will eventually get their excommunications lifted, probably without actually changing anything. They have a surprising amount of sympathy despite nearly universal condemnation of their recent stunt.
I think that happened more with the earlier breakaways*. The SSPX does seem to have had enough internal discipline not to go down that path yet, and I do think it was because of their willingness - however heel-dragging - to remain in communication with Rome. What happens now, with this decision, where the choice is starkly "pick SSPX or Rome, you can't have both", I won't attempt to forecast.
*Sinead O'Connor got 'ordained' as a 'priest' (her name in religion being Mother Bernadette Mary, this was after she was Rastafarian but before she converted to Islam) by one Bishop (soi-disant) Michael Cox, founder (naturally) of his own church, the Irish Orthodox Catholic and Apostolic Church. His lineage is that he was ordained by bishops of the Palmarian schism, who in turn had been consecrated by a Vietnamese bishop (whose own consecration was valid and licit). Cox was later consecrated as a bishop by these guys and went on his merry way of ordaining and consecrating his own picks.
Will the SSPX eventually fission off into the likes of these? The Palmarians, for one, are a sadder, smaller version of the Anglicans who like to cosplay: "look, we have the cope! we have the morse! we are too a Third Branch!"
Heh.
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The Palmarians are more of an enclosed cult that pretended to be tradcath long enough to convince a senile bishop who was unaware that Vatican II happened to ordain them bishops than a serious organization. Yes they're attention grabbing but they're also the brainchild of a schizophrenic gay Nazi and I wouldn't read too much into them as a reflection of... anything except themselves. Thuc consecrated a lot of people, at Palmar de Troya and the seminary professors in Mexico(who founded sedevacantism) are the only two anyone pays attention to; but he was a wandering dementia patient who happened to be a war refugee archbishop. Predictably, the Palmarians have seen lots of exodus to do various inane things, including one of their antipopes.
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This makes no sense in the current year, from a recruitment standpoint, if nothing else. Leaving the official structures of the Church in order to bless gay marriages means you will now be competing with 7 zillion protestant sects that have been doing it for decades (not to mention, increasingly, the mainstream Catholic Church itself). The only growth option is appealing to the trads.
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SSPX Resistance, SSPX 2, SSPX Classic, SSPV, SSPX Cash, SSPX One, SSPX-MC…
No points for guessing which ones are fake.
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Given the churches repeated and ancient schisming I think you have it the wrong way round. The left has the same sort of purity death spiral we see in Christianity.
And it all originates with the dirty splitters of the People's Front for Judaea.
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I think it could go either way long term in terms of social teachings. Look at Palmarians.
Aren't the Palmarians basically a whacko cult with Catholic characteristics?
They're a whacko cult with Catholic aesthetics, they no longer believe Catholic doctrine(although many of their doctrines are strange recombinations of distortions of Catholic doctrine- eg the virgin Mary being present in the Eucharist) and have altered most of Catholic ritual beyond all recognition.
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